Scott Smith’s UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev Best Bets

This week’s installment of UFC Fight Night remains in Las Vegas at the UFC Apex. Coming off the heels of UFC 276, which featured two title fights, this card features a few interesting matchups, but is overall underwhelming. With a couple of fights dropping off the card and low-level fights in the men’s heavyweight and multiple women’s divisions, it will be important to pick our spots on this card. We have been able to hit on main event picks in back-to-back weeks only to be disappointed with our parlay picks falling short. Let’s take a look at this week’s best bets.

UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev Best Bets

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Ricky Turcios Wins by Decision (+140, DraftKings)

The brother of famed trainer Firas Zahabi, Aiemann Zahabi is 2-2 in his UFC career. A smart, defensively sound fighter, Zahabi isn’t the most athletically gifted or offensively explosive fighter. He usually comes into fights with good game plans but that will only get fighters so far. Zahabi is limited and below average across the board offensively and that usually leaves him outgunned in a firefight. Zahabi is often outstruck and has been finished in both of his UFC losses.

Ricky Turcios is an interesting fighter who competed and won the Ultimate Fighter after losing to Boston Salmon on Dana White’s Contender Series. Turcios is tough and well-rounded, fighting out of Team Alpha Male. He comes forward and brings an active forward attack. Turcios is green and has a lot of holes in his game at this point of his career. The UFC is giving him what amounts to a developmental fight here with Zahabi. Turcios should be able to showcase his skills against a fighter in Zahabi who puts little to no offensive pressure on his opponents. While Zahabi is sound defensively, Turcios should just be able to out-volume him en route to victory.

Paths To Victory: Zahabi is a smart, well-rounded fighter who is largely inactive. He averages less than one fight per year. Zahabi coming off a 504-day layoff is a big red flag in this fight. Turcios should be able to control this fight with his pace that sees him land over seven strikes per minute. He should be able to take advantage of Zahabi’s negative striking differential. Turcios only finishes his opponents at a rate of 36%, which should lead to this fight going the distance.

Prediction: Turcios by Decision

Risk: 1 unit to win 1.4 units on DraftKings. (Playable to +100)

Parlay of the Week

Caio Borralho/Said Nurmagomedov (-112, DraftKings)

Cai Borralho vs. Armen Petrosyan Fight Breakdown

Armen Petrosyan is coming off a spilt decision win versus Gregory Rodrigues. That fight is a shining example of who Petrosyan is as a fighter. He is a brawling striker who is hittable with a suspect takedown defense. Petrosyan gets by with his striking, where he wears opponents down until his toughness and durability take over. The biggest knock on Petrosyan is his takedown defense, where he is being taken down nearly four times per 15 minutes. His success in this fight will be greatly dependent upon keeping this fight standing.

Caio Borralho comes into this fight as the favorite. Borralho is the shorter fighter but has a four-inch reach advantage in this fight. With two wins on Dana White’s Contender Series and another in his UFC debut, Borralho comes into this fight riding an eight-fight win streak. Borralho offers a well-rounded skill set and has shown the ability to follow fight strategies that force attacks into spots where he can excel. This fight will be a clash of styles, where Petrosyan will have a slight advantage standing. Where Borralho has the skill to strike with Petrosyan, Petrosyan has not displayed the skills to think he can deal with Barralho on the ground. Borralho is patient and disciplined in his ground attacks with a position-over-submission system of attacking. Petrosyan will have opportunities to counter strike but Borralho offers a clearer path to victory and should get the win.

Said Nurmagomedov vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade Fight Breakdown

Douglas Silva de Andrade is not an easy day at the office for any fighter in the bantamweight division. Packed full of power, Silva de Andrade fights on the inside and puts everything he has into his strikes. In his last fight, Silva de Andrade was in trouble after getting dropped in the first round against Sergey Mozorov. He was able to weather the storm and ultimately get the submission in the second round. While Silva de Andrade is powerful, he isn’t the most accurate and that brings energy expenditure, which could lead to his output slowing as the fight goes on.

Nurmagomedov is one of the better up-and-coming prospects in the bantamweight division. A confident and versatile striker, Nurmagomedov is best when keeping the fight on the feet. In his loss to Raoni Barcelos, he was stalled out on the ground after getting caught throwing reckless spinning attacks. Nurmagomedov has good size for this division and will be the more accurate and better defensively-sound fighter. Nurmagomedov should be able to control this fight on the feet and sports a 77.78% takedown defense. Nurmagomedov is the biggest favorite on the card and sports a 67% projected win percentage in this fight. Considering he only finishes 53% of his fights and the fact Silva de Andrade is such a tough customer, this fight looks to be going to a decision.

Risk: 1.12 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Playable up to -125)

Value Play of the Week

Rafael dos Anjos to Win by Decision (+390, FanDuel)

Rafael Fiziev is an absolute killer on the feet and will be favored to win this fight early. He sports a 95% takedown defense which should allow this fight to stay on the feet where he should have the advantage. Fiziev has had slight conditioning issues seeing his output fade as fights go late. Rafael dos Anjos is a veteran of the sport and has gone five rounds in multiple fights. When looking at dos Anjos’ fight history it’s obvious to see his troubles come from fighting strong wrestlers. While Fiziev is dangerous, it’s unlikely he will be looking to take this fight to the mat.

The implied odds have Fiziev with a 68% chance of winning this fight. While the veteran dos Anjos is older but his profile and recent destruction of Renato Moicano certainly offer a path to victory as the fight goes into the later rounds. While it’s hard to confidently pick a winner in this fight, my ratings have this fight much closer to a pick'em, with Fiziev having a smaller advantage (52% win percentage). Getting 16 points on the books is a value I'm willing to take a stab at.

Risk: .26 units on FanDuel to win 1.01 units. (Playable down to +350)

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