NBA Player Prop Bets: Santa Got Some Rebounds For Giannis Antetokounmpo
Happy Holidays from my family and the 4for4 family! If you’re reading this, that means you take time out of your day to consume what we put out, and we are thankful for that.
When it comes to Christmas traditions, there aren’t many that are better than the NBA slate on Christmas Day. Stretching from late morning (for everyone except you east-coasters…) through late night. Grab your egg nog (if you’re into that weird stuff), whip open those sportsbook apps, and treat yourself to the gift of NBA betting.
Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 truly makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not specifically paid for!), let’s get into the Christmas Day props.
Christmas Day NBA Player Prop Bets
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 11.5 Rebounds (-130 at PointsBet)
The two best teams in the East, and arguably the two best teams in the NBA, square off on Christmas Day. Given the nature of the game, we should expect a show from Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The two-time MVP has experienced a bit more box score inconsistency than usual in the month of December, but he seems to have righted the ship over his last three games, averaging 37.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in 36.5 minutes per game. Seeing a full allotment of minutes has been the nicest development for bettors and fantasy players, as Antetokounmpo has shown an unmatchable upside when given the additional minutes. That should once again be the case on Christmas against the Celtics, a team with which he’s all too familiar with after averaging 33.9 points and 14.7 boards against them in the playoffs last year.
The Celtics have a phenomenal all-around defense, but they remain undersized in the frontcourt and Antetokounmpo has been one of the players who has consistently exploited that. He posted three games of 18+ rebounds against them in the seven-game playoff series last season and comes in averaging the seventh-most rebounding chances in the NBA (18.0). Given the expectation that he sees over 35 minutes coupled with the matchup history, this feels like as strong a bet as any on Christmas.
Risk: 1.30 units on PointsBet to win 1 unit.
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 15.5 Points (-110 at DraftKings)
Speaking of box score inconsistencies, that’s the nature of the beast when you’re a frequent bettor of Jaren Jackson Jr. Picking and choosing your spots is vital with a player like him, and his spot against the Warriors on Christmas is one I want a piece of.
Jackson has topped this prop in two of his last three games and comes into this game averaging 16.9 points per game on the season. He fits the mold of a center capable of excelling in small-ball lineups and up-tempo games, something the Warriors do pretty often, given his 35.2% three-point percentage and ability to guard multiple frontcourt positions.
The recent addition of Desmond Bane will ding his usage rate a bit in the long term, but it’s worth noting he’s seen a 31.2% usage rate in his 18.6 minutes on the court with Bane this season. He’s averaged nearly 35 points per 36 minutes in that sample size, so while small, it backs up the fact he’s fully capable of carving out his looks.
Risk: 1.1 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
James Harden Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+112 on FanDuel)
While all of the hype is focused on James Harden’s assist prop after a gaudy 21-assist performance on Friday night, I have much more interest in his three-point prop at plus-money on FanDuel against a Knicks team struggling to protect the arc this season.
The Knicks have been on quite the surge, winning eight games in a row before dropping their most recent pair against the Raptors and Bulls. Despite the winning streak this season, the Knicks have allowed the fifth-highest three-point frequency (42.0%) and the eighth-most three-pointers made (12.8) per game to opponents this season.
Harden may not be the voluminous three-point shooter he was in Houston, but he’s still attempted at least six threes in every game this month, averaging 7.6 attempts per game in December. Given how the Knicks tend to leave shooters open and they’ve proven to deliver as outlined above, Harden at plus-money to hit three-or-more threes feels like a bet I want in on.
Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.12 units.
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