NBA Player Prop Bets: Horford Helpers Boost Boston

An unpredictable series gets another scenery change as the Chase Center gets to host Game 5. While some of the fat has been trimmed from the rotations, there are still variables to keep in mind when looking at potential minutes for tonight. The status of Robert Williams’ knee and the appetite for Steve Kerr to have multiple non-shooters on the floor at the same time are the two primary instances.

Seeing as there have been two very different games in each venue, putting much value on home-court advantage in the prop market seems like it could be a fool’s errand. While assessing where you think there is value tonight, make sure to check out 4for4’s Player Prop Finder, Player Prop Tool, Prop Explorer, and get involved in the Discord chat. Let’s make it a profitable Game 5.

*Lines accurate at time of publication

DraftKings Player Prop Bets (June 13, 2022)

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Klay Thompson Under 3.5 Rebounds (-105)

Earlier in the playoffs, Klay Thompson’s rebounding overs were a great bet. In this series against the Celtics, though, Thompson has not had near as many chances to make an impact on the boards. He has gone under tonight's prop number in every game of the series and in his last six overall.

The reason the line has not moved as much as it seems it should is that the rebounding chances have remained high enough that if the efficiency improved, the over would be in play. The reason to be skeptical of much improvement is the distance of every Thompson rebound.

On the series, the average distance of a Thompson rebound is 9.1 feet but it was only 6.9 feet in the previous two series. That has led to an average of 2.5 rebounds on 6.5 rebounding chances against Boston, compared to 4.5 rebounds on 8.8 rebounding chances against Memphis and Dallas. The average distance of the rebounds in this series calls into question the value of every rebounding chance. With the added athleticism Boston has at similar positions to Thompson as well, the size advantage that served him well earlier in the playoffs is mostly negated. That lends itself to value on this under yet again.

Risk: 1.05 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Playable to -116)

Al Horford Over 3.5 Assists (+135)

The passing numbers for Al Horford are night and day from the first two games to the next two and that likely provides some value for bettors.

In Games 1 & 2, Horford averaged 2.0 assists on 4.5 potential assists but those numbers jumped in the next two games to 5.0 assists on 7.5 potential assists. The correlated number that has seen a similar jump is in the front-court touches for Horford. In the first two games of the series, Horford averaged 24.5 front-court touches but since then is averaging 31.0 front-court touches.

Boston is utilizing Horford as an outlet when the ball gets pressured and he is able to make good decisions in space. Horford’s trustworthiness shows as well in the dribble handoff game that Boston does not utilize as often but is good for a cheap assist here and there.

The health questions with Robert Williams aggravating his knee injury again could result in more minutes for Horford and opportunities to make plays as well.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.35 units. (Playable to +105)

BetMGM Player Prop Bets (June 13, 2022)

Draymond Green Under 7.5 Points (-115)

A lot has been made of Draymond Green being benched in the fourth quarter of Game 4 but that does not necessarily mean it will lead to more points in Game 5.

In the series, Green is averaging 4.3 points and has only gone over this prop once. In that game, he had seven free-throw attempts, which feels like an anomaly considering he did not get to the line once in Boston. The two games Golden State has won were the biggest assists games for Green, not scoring.

When the Warriors are going well, Green plays facilitator and occasionally drives himself when the defense overplays the pass. Considering the possibility of minutes getting cut and the production so far in the series, it is much easier to see the avenues to an under, whether the Warriors win or not.

Risk: 1.15 units on BetMGM to win 1 unit. (Playable to -122)

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