NBA Player Prop Bets: Herro No More
Tuesday Night brings three critical NBA playoff battles, with Miami looking to close out Atlanta at home and two series facing a pivotal Game 5.
The Heat are coming off a dominant 110-86 win at Atlanta, led by 36 points, 10 rebounds, and four steals from Jimmy Butler. Miami is just one last-second Game 3 shot removed from a perfect 4-0 sweep of the Hawks. Miami enters tonight at a seven-point home favorite to end Atlanta's season.
The other two games feature critical matchups between teams that have all won road games. The No. 2-seeded Grizzlies would be facing a 3-1 series deficit to the No. 7-seeded Timberwolves, if not for a historic 26-point road comeback. Memphis hosts Minnesota tonight, desperately trying to avoid a Game 6 elimination road game.
New Orleans earned a critical Game 4 home victory after a dominant Game 3 performance by the Suns' duo of Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. Phoenix is still without leading-scorer Devin Booker and will need a much better performance from Paul, who was held to just four points in the 118-103 loss on Sunday.
Below are two overs and one under for a Tuesday Night NBA slate filled with high drama.
Our NBA Player Prop Tool and NBA Prop Stat Explorer Tool are critical resources to help identify key spots for betting advantages. Of course, monitor our Discord activity for key last-minute updates. Let's dive into three props for tonight.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
DraftKings Player Prop Bets (April 26th, 2022)
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Tyler Herro (MIA) Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
Game 3 was very concerning for Tyler Herro's role with the Heat.
Herro played only 21 minutes and saw his playing time divided among fellow shooting guards Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, and Victor Oladipo. Herro's 21 minutes were two fewer than Oladipo, who did not play in the first three games of the series. Even with starting point guard Kyle Lowry out with a hamstring injury, Herro saw just seven total first-half minutes while the Heat opened up a 14-point halftime lead.
This number still reflects Herro's cumulative ranking as Miami's second-leading scorer (20.7 PPG), but not his minutes reduction. With Strus as the starting shooting guard, Herro is facing a small second-quarter window that determines his playing time. In Game 2, Herro went 0-5 from three-point range and saw his first-half minutes replaced by Oladipo and Robinson. The majority of his production came in the second half, when the game was already decided.
Herro is seeing six fewer minutes per game than in the regular season and is shooting just 20.8% (5-of-24) from three-point range in this series. This prop reflects a belief in positive regression, but I'm concerned Herro's reduced role is the start of a trend.
Risk: 1.15 Units on DraftKings to win 1 Unit. (Playable to -120)
Jae Crowder (PHX) Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
Jae Crowder has been much more productive in the past two games without Devin Booker. In the first two games, Crowder averaged just 3.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.0 assists in an average of 27 minutes per game. In Games 3 and 4, those numbers increased to 10.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists. In home games, even with Booker, Crowder averaged 16.8 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) this season.
There is always a threat of foul trouble with the aggressive Crowder, but his 31 minutes per game in the last two contests is encouraging. Crowder shot 34.8% from three this season but is just 1-of-17 (5.9%) in the postseason. I'm betting on some positive regression to Crowder's 36.4% three-point average in home games. I'll grab the over on his PRA prop at a reasonable price.
Risk: 1.15 Units on DraftKings to win 1 Unit. (Playable to -120)
BetMGM Player Prop Bets (April 26th, 2022)
Bam Adebayo (MIA) Under 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105)
We hit Bam Adebayo's under 30.5 PRA at -125 on Sunday and we are going back to it tonight with better juice at 29.5 PRA. The quad injury still lingers, and his numbers drop over two full points without Kyle Lowry on the floor. He hasn't beaten this number in any of the four games and was challenged for rebounds with the return of Atlanta center Clint Capela. In his last four games against Capela, Adebayo has posted totals of just 2, 6, 6, and 8 rebounds. Assuming he stays near that average, and with a scoring projection at just 16.5 points, Adebayo will fall short of this total again.
The Heat dominated Game 4, bringing blowout risk into play again tonight in a closeout Game 5. With Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra needing a healthy Adebayo in Round 2, and the always prevalent foul trouble concerns, I'm backing Miami's center to again fall short of this prop.
Risk: 1.05 Units on BetMGM to win 1 Unit. (Playable to -110)
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