NBA Player Prop Bets: Connaughton Struggles

We've got a tiny two-game playoff slate in the NBA tonight, so let's get down to business. Don't forget to utilize our NBA Player Prop Tool and NBA Prop Stat Explorer Tool to identify more value plays for tonight. And, of course, be active in our Discord for updates and more picks. I like hanging out in there as well, so come say hello!

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

FanDuel Player Prop Bets (April 27th, 2022)

[subscribe_betting]

Pat Connaughton Under 9.5 Points (-122)

Pat Connaughton has suddenly found himself thrust into a more meaningful role and playing additional minutes after Bucks starting small forward and two-time All-Star Khris Middleton suffered a knee injury in Game 2 of Milwaukee’s opening-round series against the Chicago Bulls. Connaughton has played 20 and 28 minutes in the two games Middleton has been sidelined, tallying 16 points in both appearances. The former Norte Dame alum is shooting the ball poorly in this series connecting on only 31% of his field goals and 23% of his three-point attempts. His shooting woes have carried over from the regular season where he also shot 31% against Chicago in three matchups against the Bulls.

On the other hand, Bucks starting shooting guard Grayson Allen has been a major X factor for Milwaukee, scoring 22 and 27 points over his last two appearances and helping Milwaukee take a 3-1 series lead against the Bulls. Allen has been on fire from the perimeter, making nearly 80% of his three-point field goals as well. The Bucks are also receiving healthy contributions from veteran Wesley Matthews who has outscored Connaughton in the series and is playing close to 28 minutes a game. George Hill could also be returning to the Bucks' lineup tonight to make his postseason debut and further muddying up Milwaukee's backcourt rotation and could potentially steal a few minutes from Connaughton.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Connaughton played less than 20 minutes tonight. If he continues to struggle, he may find his role diminished even further. It’s also worth noting Connaughton has only played an average of 4.5 additional minutes since Middleton exited the lineup. With other Bucks depth pieces playing well, those extra minutes could be allocated elsewhere. I have Connaughton projected for 22 minutes and 7.9 points, making this a nice spot to fade the seven-year veteran.

Risk: 1.22 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable down to -135).

Otto Porter Jr. Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)

Otto Porter Jr. has struggled this postseason after having a very solid regular season that saw the former third-overall pick average 8.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists off of the Warriors' bench. Porter Jr. appeared in 63 regular-season games and even made 15 starts for Golden State. The Georgetown alum averaged 22 minutes per game and his playing time has carried over to the playoffs. Despite his struggles, this is such a low number. Porter Jr. has eclipsed this line in 40 of his 63 regular-season appearances, good for a 64% hit rate to the over. Golden State will be without Andre Igoudala tonight after logging a combined 28 minutes over the Warriors' previous two playoff games. This could potentially open up a few additional minutes for Porter Jr., who has averaged 21.2 minutes in this series.

This is a good matchup on paper, as Denver has allowed the sixth-most opponent bench points over the course of the regular season (37.2 PPG). Steve Kerr has continued to heap praise on Porter Jr. and does not appear to be going away from the nine-year veteran anytime soon. We’re dealing with tiny sample sizes having only four postseason games to work with, but I do not think Porter Jr. has suddenly forgotten how to play or is not up for the moment. We are getting a significant discount on a line that would usually hover between 15.5 and 16.5 in the regular season. Considering his playing time has not decreased, it's only a matter of time until Porter Jr. gets back on track.

Risk: 1.1 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Playable down to -125).

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.