2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Round 2 Betting and Showdown Picks

Mar 04, 2022

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Rory McIlroy opened with a 7-under 65 on Thursday and holds the lead after the first round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Along with six birdies, he offset his only bogey with an eagle on the 16th hole. McIlroy won here at Bay Hill in 2018 and has finished in the top 10 for each of the last five events. The trio of Billy Horschel, Beau Hossler and J.J. Spaun are tied for second place at 5-under. With little-to-no wind on Thursday, conditions were perfect for players to shoot low rounds. Looking ahead to Friday, there is a potentially huge wind advantage for players in the morning wave. Winds are forecast between 1-5 MPH in the morning and then rise to 9-12 MPH in the afternoon with gusts up to 18 MPH.

Weather Forecast

Post-Round 1 Player Quotes

*Quotes courtesy of ASAP Sports Transcriptions

Rory McIlroy: I think you turn up at any golf course where you've had success, and automatically you're going to have some confidence coming in. I've shot some really nice scores here. I think the last couple of years I've opened up the tournament really well with scores similar to what I shot today. I feel there's a nice flow to this golf course where you can really build a score. You have par-5s, one every few holes, and you've got a couple of scoreable par-4s. As long as you don't do anything stupid and you keep it in play, you feel like you can sort of methodically build a score on this golf course. That's what I tried to do today. I was actually pretty surprised at how firm the greens were already. From the Pro-Am yesterday, we played at a similar time to today. The golf course is firmed up already. I think with this weather and the sort of warmer weather that's coming over the weekend, it's just going to get more and more firm as the week goes on. Then that places a premium so much more on just getting the ball in play. Fairways and greens and just being really disciplined with your game.

Billy Horschel: Since they've changed this course from overseeded, the entire course being overseeded to Bermuda, and the only thing that's overseeded now is the rough. These greens are tricky. And you look at the winning score, except for maybe one year where I think it was 18, it's been 12, 10, and maybe single digits, around 5 or 7, the last three out of four years. Play one good round, you know you need to play one really good round around here. To get that in the first round allows me to not have to be overly aggressive the next couple days and sort of just play as smart as we did today and hopefully make a few putts out there.

Will Zalatoris: I played pretty solid. Made a couple of putts in the middle of the round. Drove it pretty well. I was able to save par. I think that saving par on 1 was kind of the epitome of the day, where 200 out of the rough and I could barely even get a wedge out of it. Then end up saving par from 65 yards. You've got to give yourself chances out here. You've got to keep it in the fairway as much as you possibly can. Even though you see the scores, Rory obviously went low, and you see a bunch of guys kind of shooting 4, 3, 2-under, this is as easy as you're going to see this place. No wind. This is the softest you're going to see it. The greens are already baking out. Scottie and I were joking about how we were having a tough time getting our putter heads solid on the green because there's so much grain and so glassy. This is the best I've ever seen it too. It's going to be fun. This weekend's going to be tough. Obviously, if the wind stays down, you won't be seeing any guys shooting even par and moving up 15 places like I did last year.

Current Betting Favorites

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Rory McIlroy +240
Billy Horschel +1200
Viktor Hovland +1300
Sungjae Im +1400
Will Zalatoris +1600
Best Current Outright Value: Marc Leishman +3500 D raftKings

Leishman is 2-under par heading into the second round but gets to play in the much calmer conditions on Friday morning. His ball-striking was solid on Thursday, and if he can get off to a good start, is worth watching for a possible live wager.

Round 2 Betting Selections

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

Matt Fitzpatrick (-105) Over Cameron Tringale and Scott Stallings

Matthew Fitzpatrick struggled to get anything going in Thursday's opening round. His ball-striking was very average and he putted below his typical baseline on Bermuda greens. The good news for his matchup on Friday is that both Cameron Tringale and Scotting Stallings were awful in every area, shooting a combined 10-over par. Fitzpatrick loves playing at Bay Hill and ranked seventh in the pre-tournament model. He is one of the best second-round players in the field from a historical perspective, gaining an average of 1.9 shots on the field in his last 50 "Friday" rounds. Having grown up playing on England's wind-swept courses, combined with his past success in windy conditions, similar to what players will see in the afternoon, gives him another advantage.

Risk: 1.05 Units on P ointsBet.

Round 2 DraftKings DFS Showdown Selections

*I am favoring players teeing off in the morning wave due to forecasted higher winds during the afternoon.

Tee Times can be found here.

Core Plays

Paul Casey, $8,700
Billy Horschel, $9,000
Matthew Fitzpatrick, $9,200

Top-Tier Plays

Viktor Hovland, $10,200
Jon Rahm, $10,800
Marc Leishman, $9,300

Mid-Tier Plays

Maverick McNealy, $8,000
Sam Burns, $8,400
Corey Conners, $7,600
Christiaan Bezuidenhout, $7,700

Value Plays

Adam Svensson, $6,700
Lanto Griffin, $7,500
Patrick Reed, $7,300
Erik van Rooyen, $7,400
Adam Schenk, $6,100
Matt Jones, $6,600
Danny Lee, $6,500

For the most up-to-date picks, or if you have any questions or comments, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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