Week 7 NFL Pick'em and Survivor Pool Picks
We have some huge spreads this week, plus a few really nice value picks to choose from. There are six teams watching the action from home in Week 7, limiting the pools slightly.
With the help of TeamRankings' customizable tools and data, I’ll go over the best value picks for Week 7, along with the top suggestions for survivor pools. With this info, you should be able to make smart decisions in order to get back on track or keep you going if you’ve had a strong start to the season thus far.
Editor’s Note: TeamRankings subscribers win football pools three times as often as expected, thanks to customized picks designed for your pool's size and rules. No one else does it.
Week 6 Recap
This brings my season total to 19-11. Let’s move forward to Week 7, where hopefully we find success in both pick'em and survivor formats.
Pick'em Pool Breakdown
Before I get into the picks, note that I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 7 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.
However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 7 picks from your pool opponents, by taking on only a modest amount of risk, or no additional risk at all.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Lions
This contest features a 15-point spread (not a typo), with win odds of 87% by TeamRankings and 89% via Vegas. Despite the revenge-game narrative for Jared Goff, the Lions are simply outmatched here and won’t get it done.
Green Bay Packers vs. Football Team
At Lambeau Field, the Packers are 9.5-point favorites over Washington, with Vegas giving win odds of 79%, and TeamRankings slightly lower at 76%. Aaron Rodgers and his weapons should torch the Football Team secondary in this one, making it another layup for picks this week.
Like the Rams, public bettors are going with Green Bay 99% of the time, so everybody in your pool is in the same boat.
New England Patriots vs. Jets
The spread in this AFC East showdown is the Patriots by a touchdown at home. TeamRankings is giving 72% win odds while the public is picking New England 97% of the time. While that is a high number, it’s lower than the Packers and Buccaneers, who bettors are backing 99% and 98% of the time, respectively.
Give me a Bill Belichick-coached team against a rookie QB for the win.
New Orleans Saints @ Seahawks
The Saints are well-rested and travel to take on a Seattle team with Geno Smith under center. The spread in this NFC contest is New Orleans by five points, with 68% win odds from TeamRankings and 67% for Vegas.
Seattle seems to have crazy games in primetime so this could be a wild one, but the Seahawks just aren’t the same without Russell Wilson and Chris Carson. Public bettors are on the Saints at 71%, so there is some value there.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Titans
We’ve gotten sort of a mixed bag from both teams this season, and the pair are coming off respective wins. The Chiefs crushed Washington to the tune of 397 yards from Patrick Mahomes, while Tennesee held off Buffalo in the final second to come out victorious. KC is a 5.5-point road favorite in this contest, with 69% win odds.
The public is backing the Chiefs just 65% of the time, which is less than games with similar spreads like Baltimore (93%) and New Orleans (71%), so you could differentiate yourself with this pick.
Survivor Picks for Week 7
Win Odds: Top 5 Week 7 Picks
Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to win odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.
Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the TeamRankings Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Texans (92%, 17.5-point favorites)
- L.A. Rams vs. Lions (89%, 15-point favorites)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Bears (86%, 12.5-point favorites)
- Green Bay Packers vs. Football Team (76%, 9.5-point favorites)
- New England Patriots vs. Jets (75%, 7-point favorites)
Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.
Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 7 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston (48%)
- Green Bay Packers vs. Football Team (17%)
- New England Patriots vs. Jets (13%)
- L.A. Rams vs. Lions (12%)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Bears (4%)
The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 7, you won’t be able to use them later.
According to TeamRankings, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5.8)
- L.A. Rams (4.1)
- Kansas City Chiefs (3.4)
- Arizona Cardinals (2.6)
- Baltimore Ravens (2.3)
Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the TeamRankings Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.
TeamRankings has released a book on Survivor Pool Strategy, check out the e-version by clicking here.