Game Flowbotics: Week 2 Picks Against the Spread

Opening week is in the books! Despite how thankful we are to finally have information from regular-season games, we’re also bracing ourselves for the rollercoaster ride to continue, ready to gather more data. To help contextualize team performances and anticipate how the ride might dip or climb through the NFL schedule, I’m publishing my Game Flowbotics spreadsheet each week, which gathers betting lines plus efficiency and pace data from Football Outsiders. In these weekly articles, I’ll analyze the matchup stats and lay out how I plan to attack the slate's against the spread and over/under betting lines.

Accountability

I went 8-3 with my picks last week for a gain of 3.25 units. My most tilting loss was Over 52 for Arizona at Tennessee. Both teams played up-tempo last season, and both figure to have solid, if not great, offenses again this season. They got to a total of 51 points through three quarters, and I figured the over was in the bag. Of course, neither team scored again. As the kids say, you hate to see it.

My other misses were both in the Monday Night Football matchup between Baltimore and Las Vegas, where I had the Ravens (-4) and the under (51). The way the Raiders’ defense was playing early in the game, I figured the under was a lock, even if the Ravens couldn’t cover (which they didn’t). Unfortunately for me and my bets, Baltimore got worn down and/or sloppy in the fourth quarter, started ceding touchdowns to Vegas and had to fire back with their offense. Daniel Carlson’s last-second field goal in regulation put the total over 51, killing my under bet before the game even got to overtime.

All in all, it was a humbling finish to an otherwise great week for my picks, and it served as a good reminder to beware of road favorites. Furthermore, Baltimore’s unraveling felt like evidence that these early games in the regular season will often act as an extended preseason. We’ll learn a lot more about every team as their players get into true game shape (both physically and mentally) over the next couple of weeks.

Week 2 Game Flowbotics

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This week’s worksheet: Week 2 Game Flowbotics

For background on Game Flowbotics and information on how to use the spreadsheet, check out my first article in this series and the Game Flowbotics primer.

As always, this tool is not a model. It isn’t going to tell us who to pick. Instead, it’s a visualization resource to help us gather information and compare opposing forces in NFL matchups. It’s up to us to translate those considerations into picks on our own. With that in mind, let’s get to my favorite angles this week.

Week 2 Best Bets

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears

Chicago played slow last year (27th in situation neutral pace) and in Week 1 (22nd), but their matchup here against Cincinnati’s defense is favorable, so they should score above expectations set from their Week 1 performance against the Rams. That should put pressure on the Bengals' offense to pass early and often, which is what they want to do anyway. Even against a solid defense like Chicago’s (12th in defensive DAVE, which combines in-season DVOA with preseason projections), Joe Burrow & Co. should be able to move the ball and put up points. If the Bears manage to force turnovers, that will put additional heat on the Bengals to pick up their pace of play, which is typically near league average. I don’t expect this contest to go way over, but the 44.5-point game total feels light to me.

Pick: Over (44.5) -110 at DraftKings / Caesars, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts

Did I say “beware road favorites” above? Well, uh... nevermind? Seriously, though, I’m just excited to go back to the well picking against Carson Wentz. This Colts team only mustered 16 points against the Seahawks, and now they have to face the Rams, who rank better than the Seahawks in all the most important defensive efficiency stats on the Game Flowbotics page.

The one area where the Rams’ defense is worse than the Seahawks’ defense is against the run. Jonathan Taylor might be able to exploit that matchup, but that’s such an obvious plan of attack for Indianapolis that the Rams should anticipate it and have some sort of answer (same as what I predicted from Pete Carroll last week). And honestly, the easiest answer is to just score a bunch of points on offense—something L.A. is well equipped to do—using game flow to force a pass-heavy script from the overmatched Wentz. Ultimately, the NFC West appears to be the apex of offense in 2021, and the Colts have the misfortune of facing two teams from that division to open the season.

Pick: LAR (-3.5) -110 at DraftKings, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit (bet up to -4).

New England Patriots at New York Jets

The New England defense doesn’t rank particularly well in DVOA through one week (16th), but their weighted DAVE ranking which includes preseason projections has them fifth. On the other side of the ball, the Jets’ offense ranks 21st in DVOA (thanks to a relatively soft Week 1 matchup with Carolina) but 29th in DAVE. Meanwhile, both on offense and defense, the Patriots have big advantages in the trenches and should control the line of scrimmage.

Everything sets up for New England to win handily, despite being on the road against a divisional rival. While I’m willing to lay six points with them, the line was even more favorable early in the week. All the more reason to join the 4for4 Discord, where Ryan Noonan alerted everyone to bet New England (-3.5) on Monday before the line moved.

Pick: NE (-5.5) -110 at DraftKings / PointsBet / Caesars, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Thanks to their top-notch defense—first in defensive DVOA after one week and second-best in defensive DAVE—the Saints had no trouble shutting down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. I expect a similar showing against Sam Darnold and the Panthers. On top of New Orleans’ defensive prowess, they have a big advantage in overall DAVE, ranking sixth versus Carolina at 25th. In other words, factoring in preseason projections alongside Week 1 performances, this game sets up as a huge mismatch in favor of the road team.

Here I go again, picking against a home dog, but the three-point line on this game early in the week really stood out to me, and I jumped on it. The line has moved since, but I’m surprised it hasn’t moved more. Books currently have New Orleans favored by 3.5–4 points, and I still like the Saints at those numbers.

Pick: NO (-3) -115 at DraftKings, risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit (bet up to -4).

Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals

It might be an overreaction to Week 1, but I’m already buying the Arizona defense. Improving in that phase of the game was a focus of the franchise in the offseason, and it paid immediate dividends in the opening week against what we all expected to be a solid Tennessee offense. The Cardinals landed second in defensive DVOA after that game, while factoring in preseason projections puts them 14th. The eye test from Sunday puts more weight on their raw one-week sample for me, though. I think they can limit the Vikings similar to how they limited the Titans, especially with their home crowd fired up behind them this week.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals offense is so scary that it tilted the normally fast-paced Titans (third in situation neutral pace last season) toward ball control to keep Kyler Murray and his receivers off the field (30th in situation neutral pace last week). I expect Minnesota will try to do the same thing with Dalvin Cook, but it won’t be long before Arizona puts up points and Kirk Cousins is forced into airing it out to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. So while I like the revamped Arizona defense, I think the Minnesota offense will hang more points on them than Tennessee did, and the Cardinals over I wanted to hit last week will instead hit this week because, believe it or not, the Vikings have a better offense than the Titans, according to DAVE.

Picks: ARI (-3.5) -115 at FanDuel, risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit (bet up to -4); Over (50.5) -115 at DraftKings, risk 0.575 units to win 0.5 units.

Week 2 Rapid-Fire Picks

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers

It's an especially short week for the Raiders after their Monday night game went to overtime, plus they lost starting guard Denzelle Good and starting defensive tackle Gerald McCoy in that game. Now they’re traveling to the eastern time zone for an early start against the Steelers’ top-five defense. Yikes, that's what we call a schedule loss.

Pick: PIT (-5) -110 at DraftKings, risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 unit (bet up to 5.5).

Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars

If the lowly Texans can hang 37 points on the Jags, how many points can the Broncos score this week? Whatever answer you give might make you like the over in this game, but the Broncos' offense is only part of the equation. We also need to factor in their defense, ranked ninth in DAVE, which should shut down the Jags offense and allow the Broncos offense to ease off the gas pedal (something the Texans offense couldn’t do in good conscience last week, knowing it was their best chance to secure a win this season). This week, I expect a low-scoring affair with death by a thousand field goals for Jacksonville, but Denver could run roughshod to push the total over, so I’m only risking half a unit.

Pick: Under (45.5) -105 at PointsBet, risk 0.525 units to win 0.5 units.

Good luck, everyone!

Please follow @GameFlowbotics on Twitter to get each week’s Game Flowbotics spreadsheet as soon as it’s available, and feel free to contact me there or @gregsauce to discuss the spreadsheet or my picks. For the most up-to-date picks subscribe to 4for4’s Discord. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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