NFL Week 18: Spread Bets

Week 17 Recap: Honestly, I don’t know what happened this season. Through Week 9, I was 17-10 ATS on the year, was up nearly 7.0 units and had just one losing week. Over the last eight weeks, I am 7-17-1 ATS and haven’t had a winning weekend, which includes my 0-2-1 Week 17 performance in which the Bills pushing against the Falcons was the highlight of my selections.

One winning weekend won’t erase eight losing weeks, but let’s try to post a “W” anyway.

Week 18 NFL Spread Bets

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Steelers at Ravens

Both of these teams still have an opportunity to make the playoffs, although they each need help. The Ravens can clinch a postseason berth with a win, as well as losses by the Colts, Chargers and Dolphins. The Steelers will make the playoffs with a win and a Colts loss, as well as if the Chargers and Raiders game doesn’t end in a tie.

Seeing as how Indianapolis is playing the moribund Jaguars on Sunday, neither Pittsburgh nor Baltimore are making the playoffs. The point, however, is that both teams still have something to play for this weekend in Baltimore.

Seeing as how Lamar Jackson didn’t practice on Thursday, it appears as though Tyler Huntley will start again under center for the Ravens. Huntley isn’t Jackson, but he’s also guided Baltimore to near wins over the Packers and Rams in recent weeks. While the Ravens have been hit harder than most when it comes to injuries, they remain competitive and well-coached.

As for the Steelers, they placed WR Diontae Johnson and center Kendrick Green on the reserve/COVID-19 list this week in what could be Ben Roethlisberger’s final game (for Pittsburgh or otherwise). Defensive coordinator Keith Butler has also entered COVID-19 protocols and while it’s possible he’ll return in time to call plays for the Steelers on Sunday, they could be without a key member of their coaching staff as well.

Four points feels like a lot to lay with a Jackson-less Ravens team, but Big Ben is done. Even as the Steelers were thoroughly dismantling the Browns on Monday, the score didn’t get out of hand until late in the fourth quarter because Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh’s offense looked to be stuck in the mud. The game wasn’t an aberration: The Steelers rank 24th in points scored, 28th in yards per play and 22nd in red-zone efficiency. Now they’ll be without a key receiver and their center for Sunday’s matchup with the Ravens. Give me Baltimore.

Pick: 1.10 units on Ravens -4 at DraftKings to win 1.0 unit.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Colts botched their opportunity at possibly catching the Titans and winning the AFC South with their lackluster performance last week against the Raiders, but a playoff berth is still in reach. While they could still get in with a loss on Sunday, the Colts will earn a Wild Card spot with a win on Sunday in Jacksonville.

And they’re going to get that win. In fact, I think it’ll be a bloodbath.

Urban Meyer wasted Trevor Lawrence’s first season in Jacksonville but the bottom line is the rookie has struggled. Not once this season has Lawrence finished with more passing touchdowns than turnovers in a game. He’s also gone 15 starts with one or fewer passing touchdowns, which ties him for most in a season all-time (the other QBs to “accomplish” that feat were Trent Dilfer in 1995, Rick Mirer in 1993 and Ken O'Brien in 1991, according to ESPN Stats & Info).

Granted, the Colts have lost six straight road games (including one “road” game in London) to the Jaguars and they only beat Jacksonville 23-17 in Week 10 earlier this season at Lucas Oil Stadium. That said, the Colts led that game 17-0 in the first quarter and then seemingly shifted into cruise control the rest of the way. Jacksonville is horrendous in nearly every meaningful statistical category on both sides of the ball, ranking 32nd in scoring, 31st in points allowed, 27th in total offense and 22nd in total defense. I guess their pass defense has been okay (it ranks 16th), but when you have the 25th-ranked run defense there’s no reason for opponents to put the ball in the air much.

Did I mention the Colts have Jonathan Taylor? Because the Colts have Jonathan Taylor.

I’m laying the points.

Pick: 1.15 units on Colts -14.5 at FanDuel to win 1.0 unit.

Washington Football Team at New York Giants

This might be the final game Joe Judge coaches for the Giants but even if it isn’t, the team needs a massive overhaul—starting with GM Dave Gettleman. His drafts and free-agent signings have been a disaster, leaving the cupboard bare on both sides of the ball.

When you get beat 29-3 by the Bears, you know you have issues. The GMen haven’t won a game since Week 12 when they upset the Eagles 13-7 at MetLife Stadium and they’ve failed to cover in seven of their last eight games, even though the spreads in those games were 6.5 points or higher. If it weren’t for their roommates the Jets, the Deshaun Watson-less Texans or the dumpster fire that is the Jacksonville Jaguars, even more would be made nationally out of the Giants’ plight this season.

Meanwhile, Washington is officially out of the playoff mix but Ron Rivera won’t allow his team to mail it in on Sunday. While the soon-to-be-Admirals blew a lead at home last week to the Eagles, that team still had an opportunity to win the game late and has been competitive every week outside of its Week 16 flop in Dallas on Sunday Night Football. Taylor Heinicke knows every game is an opportunity for him to prove he still belongs in the league and he should victimize a New York defense ranked 23rd in postings allowed and 20th overall.

Give me the Admirals... sorry… Football Team.

Pick: 1.06 units on Football Team -7 at FanDuel to win 1.0 unit.

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