Ryan Noonan: 3 Week 16 NFL Player Props I'm Betting
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You're probably tired of hearing me talk about it. Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. Player props, though? Player props are an entirely different story.
Without polling our betting subscribers, I'm fairly confident the majority of you play some form of fantasy football as well. If you're here, it's unlikely you're a casual player. You put in the necessary time and effort it takes to win money or humiliate your friends, ideally both. I'm the same way. I don't play many traditional redraft leagues these days, but I'm constantly thinking about game environments and player usage, and these thoughts correlate so well with the prop market.
There are similarities prop betting has with traditional markets like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long-term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, and this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need to have better numbers than the market. With player props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.
Don't forget to tune into our Prop Drop Show where Connor and I are joined by PropStarz, as we go around the horn, sharing our favorite props for the week. The best part is the back half of the show, where we listener/viewer questions. If you miss it live, catch the replay on YouTube.
Let's dig in.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
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