Ryan Noonan: 3 Week 16 NFL Player Props I'm Betting

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You're probably tired of hearing me talk about it. Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. Player props, though? Player props are an entirely different story.

Without polling our betting subscribers, I'm fairly confident the majority of you play some form of fantasy football as well. If you're here, it's unlikely you're a casual player. You put in the necessary time and effort it takes to win money or humiliate your friends, ideally both. I'm the same way. I don't play many traditional redraft leagues these days, but I'm constantly thinking about game environments and player usage, and these thoughts correlate so well with the prop market.

There are similarities prop betting has with traditional markets like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long-term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, and this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need to have better numbers than the market. With player props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.

Don't forget to tune into our Prop Drop Show where Connor and I are joined by PropStarz, as we go around the horn, sharing our favorite props for the week. The best part is the back half of the show, where we listener/viewer questions. If you miss it live, catch the replay on YouTube.

Let's dig in.

More Player Props: Sam Hoppen | Connor Allen

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

Week 16 Player Prop Bets

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Alexander Mattison Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings)

We have a fairly actionable sample size of data as it pertains to Alexander Mattison in a full-time role. He's made five starts in place of Dalvin Cook over the past two seasons, and he's averaged 87.2 yards on 21.6 carries along with 4.6 targets in those games. The Rams have a solid rush defense, but not one we need to avoid when Mattison is ear-marked for 20+ attempts. Our projections have Mattison for 91.7 yards.

Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit on DraftKings.

Russell Gage Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)

I'm trying to move off of my priors with Russell Gage. Until recently, Gage has been more of low average depth of target (aDOT) slot receiver, and a below-average one at best. Though recently he's been called on to be much more, and he's responded.

With a target per route run rate of around 30% and an aDOT hovering around 10 yards, Gage deserves our attention against a toothless Lions secondary.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit on DraftKings.

Javonte Williams Over 77.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110, Caesars)

Broncos head coach Vic Fangio clearly doesn't trust Drew Lock. His style of play doesn't mesh well with Fangio's ideal way to play, and we saw Fangio go with a run-heavy game plan in the second half last week after Teddy Bridgewater's exit. Even in a 50/50 split, I anticipate high volume for both Denver running backs in this coinflip spot against the Raiders. Last week, Javonte Williams out-touched Melvin Gordon 19 to 16, while running 19 to routes to Gordon's 10. Over the past three games, Williams has run for 72, 73 and 102 yards, so he's nearly getting to this mark without any help from his receiving role. I'm expecting 15-18 carries plus 3-4 targets for Williams in this spot.

Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit on Caesars.

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