Connor Allen: 2 Week 16 Player Props I'm Betting
As the legalization of sports betting continues to explode, more and more people are diving into a new way of speculating on sports. For those just starting off, I broke down some of the basics in my gambling 101 piece. Among every category of bets, player props remain the most beatable in the long run. Last year, I hit 59% of my bets for +35 units on the season. The two years prior were much of the same, hitting 57% and 58%, respectively, of my player props for profitable seasons. I’ve already fired off a handful of bets for Week 16 and will be adding more here. If you are a betting subscriber, it is vital to be in our Discord. We have it set up so you can get push notifications for the plays our staff posts—go to role assign, then scroll up and click the little circus emoji under “Prop Stars.” If you want general NFL betting notifications, go to role assign and then click the football emoji.
Week 15 Review: Week 15 was a special one because we had an “unload the clip” moment. It’s very rare that this happens but when it does you need to be ready to pounce. Panthers kicker Zane Gonzalez hurt himself badly in warmups about an hour before game time. He had to be helped off the field, which meant he probably wasn’t going to play. Most teams don’t have anyone else on the active roster who can kick field goals, even the punter. Punting is way different than kicking and most punters haven’t kicked field goals since high school. So once Gonzalez was out, I knew the Panthers were in a really tough spot and unlikely to even attempt a field goal. I sent out an alert to our subscribers that a “first field goal” prop was available everywhere for the Bills at -110. Since the Panthers won’t even attempt one, it essentially became a “will the Bills kick a field goal prop?” There was next to no downside because if neither kicked a field goal the bet would just void since it’s a two-way market. We also looked at “longest field goal” props but those were taken down a bit quicker. I told subscribers that for tracking purposes I would count it as two units but personally I would be playing much more and that they should play as much as they should stomach. Even with a nice two-unit win in the bag, it was still a great week, as I ended up +5.57 units on the week, bringing me to +33.98 units on the season. For those of you who have been following along, I appreciate you more than you know. Let's continue to run pure and keep making money. On to Week 16...
Note: This week’s column is likely going to be very, very short. With a lot of the league facing multiple COVID-19 issues, sportsbooks are terrified to post any meaningful props. So with maybe 20% of the total props available, the pickings are slim. We already played Emmanuel Sanders Over 29.5 Receiving Yards as soon as the news broke that Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley would be missing this week’s game. That will likely be re-posted in the high 40s.
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