Ryan Noonan: 3 Week 11 NFL Player Props I'm Betting
Sportsbooks are throwing us for a loop to start the season, dropping player props earlier and earlier each week. We're staying on top of things in our Discord, and you're missing out if you're not signed up to get our team's notifications. The subscriber conversations are terrific as well and we notify the chat as we're placing the bet to ensure everyone has a shot at the same number and price we're getting if they want it. If you need help, please reach out. Help us help you!
You're probably tired of hearing me talk about it. Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. Player props, though? Player props are an entirely different story.
Without polling all 4for4 betting subscribers, I'm fairly confident the majority of you play some form of fantasy football as well. If you're here, it's unlikely you're a casual player. You put in the necessary time and effort it takes to win money or humiliate your friends, ideally both. I'm the same way. I don't play many traditional redraft leagues these days, but I'm constantly thinking about game environments and player usage, and these thoughts correlate so well with the prop market.
There are similarities prop betting has with traditional markets like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long-term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, and this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need to have better numbers than the market. With player props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.
Don't forget to tune into our Prop Drop Show on Friday nights. Connor and I are joined by PropStarz, and we go around the horn, sharing our favorite props for the week. The best part is the back half of the show, where we take all the listener/viewer questions that we have time for. If you miss it live, catch the replay on YouTube.
Let's dig in.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
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