NBA Player Prop Bets: DeRozan Dials it Down

On a small slate like tonight, the ripple effects of players being out or returning to the lineup need to be thought of not only in terms of the player being replaced but where usage and team profiles change as a result. This movement has led to a couple of props today. You can also find that value yourself by checking out 4for4’s Player Prop Tool and Prop Stat Explorer and by getting involved in the Discord chat. Let’s make this a profitable start to the week.

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication

FanDuel Player Prop Bets (January 24, 2022)

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DeMar DeRozan Under 28.5 Points (-102)

Last night against the Magic, DeMar DeRozan had to drag the short-handed Bulls to be competitive against the lowly Magic with 41 points. It looks like there will be reinforcements to take some of the load off DeRozan’s back tonight, though.

Zach LaVine has been upgraded to questionable for the game against the Thunder but the buzz around the team lends a belief he will play. If for no other reason than the Bulls’ next game is at home, so if they did not believe LaVine would play, then why send him to scenic Oklahoma City?

Even if they are not a good team, the Thunder, who are allowing the fourth-fewest points to SFs over the last month, and very good wing defender Luguentz Dort, await DeRozan and the Bulls. Some of the volume that has been going DeRozan’s way in the absence of LaVine should come back to earth. Once LaVine and DeRozan played together after their respective trips to the health and safety protocols, DeRozan was averaging 18.1 shots and 8.0 free throws per game. Since LaVine has been out, that has jumped to 21.4 shots and 9.8 free throws per game.

The return of LaVine and DeRozan’s 24.5 points per game in the last 13 games with LaVine, along with the tougher matchup, bring value to this number.

Risk: 1.02 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable to -116)

Herb Jones Over 12.5 Points (-110)

The Pelicans rookie has earned playing time and a starting spot but he has been able to extend his minutes and impress evaluators by also being a better offensive player than was expected at the beginning of the season.

In the last two weeks, Herb Jones is averaging 13.5 points on only 7.8 field goal attempts per game. With Brandon Ingram out and Devonte’ Graham questionable, there should be a lot of more shots up for grabs. Jones should see more attempts.

The Pelicans take on a very beat-up Pacers team that will be without Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis. With Caris LeVert also questionable, Indiana’s lack of depth should create advantageous matchups for the Pelicans and Jones.

Risk: 1.1 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)

PointsBet Player Prop Bets (January 24, 2022)

Mikal Bridges Over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists (+115)

Mikal Bridges has become a more active playmaker for the Suns and a larger factor on the glass as of late. In the month before the last five games, Bridges was averaging 3.8 rebounds and 1.7 assists, which has kept the props on rebounds and assists down.

In the last five games, those numbers have jumped to 5.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists. The quality of Bridges’s potential assists has gone up as he went from 1.8 assists on 4.0 potential assists before, to 3.6 assists on 4.6 potential assists in the last five. On the boards, in the last five, Bridges gets 5.2 rebounds on 8.2 rebounding chances, which is a leap from the 3.8 rebounds on 6.5 rebounding chances the month previous.

Rudy Gobert has been ruled out for the Jazz and that opens up plenty more opportunities on both fronts with the top rim protector in the league out of the lineup. In the five games Gobert missed recently, the Jazz were 28th in defensive rating, so the opposition becomes much less formidable for Bridges and the Suns, providing value on this prop.

Risk: 1 unit on PointsBet to win 1.15 units (Playable to -110).

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