NBA Player Prop Bets: Bridges Bombs from Deep

It’s a seven-game slate tonight in the shadow of another NFL Sunday but that does not mean the money counts for any less if we successfully find some value in this slate. As always, look for context in smaller samples, while always maintaining an understanding of the trends and why season-long numbers are what they are. A good way you can do that is to look at 4for4’s Player Prop Tool and Prop Explorer. Also, make sure you are checking out the Discord, where a lot of subscribers and the NBA staff are discussing props for the slate and situations to target. Let’s make it a profitable Sunday!

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication

FanDuel Player Prop Bets (January 2, 2022)

[subscribe_betting]

Mikal Bridges Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+122)

Mikal Bridges has taken a slightly lower percentage of his shots from the corners as compared to last season but is still shooting 39% from deep and 41% from the corners. Bridges has shown when given the opportunities against teams that cannot prevent shots from the corners, he will still take advantage.

The Charlotte Hornets are third-worst in the league at defending the corners over the last two weeks and bottom-five on the season. In five games against the bottom five teams in the league in defending corner threes, Bridges has averaged 2.2-5.0 from deep. In the eight games this year where Bridges has gotten at least five attempts from the three, he has gone over this prop in seven of them.

This is also a matchup of two teams top-seven in pace, so there should be an opportunity for a few extra possessions than a normal game would present. That could have helped lead to Bridges going 4-6 from three in the first matchup between these teams. Bridges’s box scores look like he is very inconsistent but the underlying numbers provide some more stability than this number reflects.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.22 units. (Playable to -110)

Malik Monk Over 14.5 Points (-112)

The Lakers viewed Malik Monk as someone who could come in and provide some desperately needed shooting punch and be a microwave scorer for them. He has been filling that role, especially as of late.

In four games since returning from the health and safety protocols, Monk has averaged 19.5 points on 11.8 field goal attempts (FGA) and six three-point attempts in 34.0 minutes. That is in stark contrast to the 28 games before his absence where he averaged 9.7 points on 8.1 FGAs and 4.8 three-point attempts in 23.8 minutes.

The reason to believe the recent flurry is sustainable against a Minnesota team whose defense has fallen off after a good start to the season—20th in the last two weeks—is because of Monk’s minutes load. In games where Monk has gotten over 30 minutes, he is averaging 18.36 points on 12.27 FGAs. With Monk’s hot shooting and the Lakers still being in need of floor spacers, there is no reason to think his role would fluctuate.

Risk: 1.12 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)

DraftKings Player Prop Bets (January 2, 2022)

Al Horford Over 4.5 Assists (+130)

Al Horford has been a good playmaking big man throughout his career and has gotten a recent reprisal to that role with the absence of Jayson Tatum and the Celtics' need for more playmakers. Tatum, who has missed three games due to being placed in the health and safety protocols, is now questionable after clearing the protocols but could still miss today’s game due to conditioning.

In these three games without Tatum, Horford’s assist average has jumped from 3.5 to 7. In those games, Horford has averaged 11.7 potential assists per game. There is room for the conversion rate of the potential assists to come down to even slightly below-average levels and still be able to clear this prop. There are well-noted issues with the ability of Jaylen Brown to make others better, so Horford being able to make plays from the elbows and at the top of the key has helped to keep the Celtics offense afloat.

There is risk built into the number if Tatum returns, but expecting he probably does not get his full workload in terms of minutes or offensive responsibility is fair as well considering Tatum previously had COVID-19 and has had long-lasting effects from it.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.3 units. (Playable to +100)

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.