2021 RSM Classic: Round 4 Matchups

Talor Gooch withstood another wind-blown round on Saturday and even added another shot of cushion to take a three-stroke lead into Sunday's final round. Though he struggled off the tee, only hitting six fairways, he shot a 3-under 67 for the day and leads both Seamus Power and Sebastian Munoz, who sit tied for second. "Any day like that is going to be a grind on the tour," Gooch said after the round regarding the high winds. "To be frank, what you're trying to do out there is avoid bogeys. It would have been easy today at times to just really get conservative and really be defensive. I was pleased I was able to stay aggressive at times." Tom Hoge is alone in fourth at 12-under. The only "big" name even somewhat within shouting distance is Webb Simpson at 10-under and six shots behind, but that is most likely too far back to have a chance. Still looking for his first PGA Tour victory, Gooch has been a positive "Sunday" player overall, gaining an average of 0.94 strokes on the field. With a +4000 pre-tournament ticket riding on his back and no other realistic value options, I'll pass on any outright dart throws and focus on some interesting final round 3-ball matchups.

Round 4 Betting Selections

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*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

Webb Simpson +190 Top-5 Finish

Over his last 50 "Sunday" rounds, Webb Simpson is the best player in the field by far gaining an average of 1.65 strokes on the field. Also, in the two measured ShotLink rounds at Seaside, he is demolishing the field in SG: Approach, outscoring the second-ranked player by 2.8 strokes. In those same two rounds, he has actually lost stroked putting, which is very surprising considering his skill level on the greens. Currently sitting in a tie for eighth, I expect Simpson's putting to rebound towards his baseline tomorrow, and for him to shoot another low round tomorrow on a course that fits his game perfectly.

Risk: 1 Unit on FanDuel.

Mito Pereira +140 over J.J. Spaun and Max McGreevy

Well, this number is a bit shocking. Yes, J.J. Spaun and Max McGreevy have equaled Mito Pereira thus far on the scoreboard, and both have outperformed him in the ball-striking category. However, neither player has anywhere close to Pereira's talent. With winds dying down tomorrow, Pereira's shot-making ability should be on full display. While he doesn't have the "Sunday" sample size of Webb Simpson, in eight career final rounds, Pereira is actually averaging 1.94 strokes gained. The bottom line is that the odds are too good to pass up.

Risk: 1 Unit on BetMGM.

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