2021 Open Championship: Round 2 Matchups

The 149th edition of The Open Championship, in all of its summer beauty, returned to Royal St. George's on Thursday for the first time since 2011. And after a two-year hiatus, the final major of the 2021 golf season got off to a roaring start with major tournament stalwarts, Louis Oosthuizen (6-under par) and Jordan Spieth (5-under), already rising to the top of the leaderboard after the opening round. Both, along with Brian Harman (5-under) took advantage of a morning wave that scored 1.64 strokes easier than the afternoon wave. With the course being much softer than expected, and the winds manageable, the overall scoring average of 70.95 was one of the lowest days in Open history. In fact, nearly 50 players were under par. While the course lacked teeth, winds are forecast to continue, which should firm up the course as we head into the weekend. With no strokes gained data to utilize in analyzing round-by-round matchups this week, we must rely on the pre-tournament model, common sense and some old-fashioned stats like Driving Accuracy%, GIR%, and putting average.

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Round 2 Betting Selections

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +145 (1u) (FanDuel) over Min Woo Lee and Sam Horsfield

This is a huge misprice in my opinion. Christiaan Bezuidenhout was 32nd in my pre-tourney model and has become a version of consistency in major tournaments. The South African, who shot 2-under par in the first round, is used to playing in all kinds of conditions. Min Woo Lee has admitted being fatigued after his victory in the Scottish Open last week. Sam Horsfield has been very inconsistent from week to week. Take "Bez" to the bank with this matchup.

Brooks Koepka +100 (1.5u) (FanDuel) over Jason Kokrak and Garrick Higgo

Another major, another round in the 60s for Brooks Koepka. Though he only shot 1-under on the par 70 course, round two in major tournaments is where he usually starts to make his charge. Over the past five years, Koepka is second in the entire world in Round 2 scoring in majors and other "strong field" events, averaging 2.41 strokes gained per round. The data shows he is also the best links-style player in the world. He hit 14-of-18 greens on Thursday, but struggled with the putter, sporting a 1.78 GIR average. Expect him to drop more putts on Friday and start to make his move up the leaderboard. As for his two opponents, Garrick Higgo is playing in only his second major and is still learning the ropes. Jason Kokrak had a solid first round at Even par, but only hit 5-of-14 fairways and has averaged only 0.12 strokes gained in second-round majors and "Strong Field" events over the past five years. He also ranks 86th in my SG: Links model, which shows that his game is not the best fit for this type of course.

Viktor Hovland +115 (1u) (FanDuel) over Ryan Palmer and Thomas Detry

Viktor Hovland got off to a great start with a 2-under score on Thursday. He holds a distinct edge over his two opponents in overall talent and in historic second-round performance. The phenom ranked 14th in my pre-tourney model, while Ryan Palmer was 53rd and Thomas Detry 87th. Over the past year, Hovland has averaged 2.04 strokes gained per second round. In majors and "Strong Field " events, that number only slightly drops to 1.58. His toughest obstacle in this matchup, Ryan Palmer, has averaged -.07 strokes gained in those same types of high-pressure events. Hovland at +115 is a great price.

Tony Finau +105 (1u) (FanDuel) over Billy Horschel and Adam Hadwin

Tony Finau got as low as 2-under on Thursday before dropping a couple shots and finishing at Even par. His ball-striking was solid, especially off-the-tee, hitting 10-of-14 fairways. He was rated 15th pre-tournament compared to Billy Horschel at 66th and Adam Hadwin at 92nd. One of the best links-style players in the world (6th), second rounds have also been Finau's forte, averaging 2.33 strokes gained on Fridays over the past year. While Horschel was Even in round one, Hadwin shot a miserable 5-over. Neither player has much links experience nor success, both rating outside the top 95 players in the field. If Finau can continue to find fairways, I expect him to pull away in this matchup.

Alex Noren +115 (2u) (BetMGM) over J.C. Ritchie and Richard Mansell

This is another price that has me scratching my head. While streaky and inconsistent at times, Alex Noren is a world-class player while J.C. Ritchie and Richard Mansell are both ranked outside the top 230 players in the official world golf rankings. A pre-tournament dark horse, Noren was very disappointing on Thursday, shooting a 4-over par 74. But if we dig deeper into the limited data we have, he was average on ball-striking but really struggled on the greens, averaging 1.78 GIR putts per hole. He is one of the better putters in the field and I would expect him to rebound in a big way with the flat-stick tomorrow. He also has infinitely more links experience than his two, mostly unknown, playing partners, ranking 20th in my links model.

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