Thursday Night DFS Single Game Breakdown: Dolphins at Jaguars

Sep 23, 2020
Thursday Night DFS Single Game Breakdown: Dolphins at Jaguars

This week's Thursday night contest between the Dolphins and Jaguars features a dozen players—by my count—that could easily determine the outcome of single-game DFS contests.

There's no clear go-to stack in this one, with target dispersal all over the place for the Jags and the Miami backfield remaining something of a guessing game. We can't even say for sure who is Miami's No. 1 pass-catcher. It's equal parts awful and glorious, like the mullet I've grown during COVID quarantine.

Below is a breakdown of single-game DFS contests on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Week 2 Thursday Night Football matchup. Constructing single-game lineups requires some imagination, especially for large-field tournament purposes.

We want to create a lineup that reflects a certain kind of game script, choosing players who would thrive—or at least have the chance to thrive—if their teams got out to a lead or were left chasing points in the second half. There’s also the neutral script that doesn't tend to inflate opportunity for any one player or team. Understanding the likelihood of each scenario and piecing together a roster that would score a bunch of points in such a scenario is key to success in these single-game contests.

Remember: For the captain spot on DraftKings, the price (and fantasy points awarded) are multiplied by 1.5. On FanDuel, the prices are the same throughout, but the MVP slot receives 1.5 times the fantasy point value of the other roster spots.

Update: D.J. Chark is out for Thursday's game against the Dolphins. We'll likely see DFS players flock to Laviska Shenault, leaving Keelan Cole (and possible Chris Conley) as fine, low-owned tournament plays. Miami will be without Byron Jones, making their secondary even more exploitable.

Vegas Spread And Total

Jacksonville comes into Week 3 as a three-point home favorite with an implied total of 25.5 points. The Dolphins, coming off a high-scoring contest with Buffalo, have an implied total of 22.5. With the injuries to Miami's defense, this one looks like a decent bet for the over.

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

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