Top DFS Stacks on FanDuel and DraftKings: Week 14

Dec 10, 2020
Top DFS Stacks on FanDuel and DraftKings: Week 14

Stacking players is a stairway to the top of daily fantasy tournaments, maximizing upside by creating the sort of volatility that can help your roster post a crooked score—one way or another.

Below are some of the most intriguing stacking plays I found while sifting through the week's matchups. Most of these options will leave room for high-ceiling studs. The goal, naturally, is to get a lot for a little. So let's get into it.

Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins; O/U 49.5

QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($8,900 FD/$8,100 DK)

WR Tyreek Hill, Chiefs ($9,000 FD/$8,500 DK)

TE Mike Gesicki, Dolphins ($5,700 FD/$4,500 DK)

We’ll start with the second-highest projected QB-WR stack of the week, per the 4for4 floor and ceiling projection app, in a sneakily solid matchup against a Miami secondary allowing a 65.5% target share to wide receivers—the highest rate in the NFL.

Tyreek Hill was tantalizingly close to another monster performance last week against the Broncos. Patrick Mahomes missed him on a deep shot, he dropped another, and he came up with one of the most miraculous grabs in NFL history that everyone—including Hill—assumed was incomplete. It was Travis Kelce who posted the gargantuan stat line against Denver, but it could have easily been Hill, who caught six of his 10 targets for 58 yards. Hill’s 10-target day followed 15 targets in Week 12, 14 in Week 11, and 18 in Week 9. That’s not nothing.

With receivers seeing an incredible 21.8 targets per game against the pass-funnel Miami defense, we can expect the target-dominating Hill to get his in Week 14. I like Hill’s chances of hitting a big play or three against the Dolphins, who are allowing 10.9 yards per completion, the 10th highest mark in the league. And if Hill has a GPP-winning day against Miami’s secondary, Mahomes will (probably) do the same. Hill, after all, accounts for 37% of the team’s air yards. No other pass-catchers has more than a 23% share of KC’s air yards.

Bringing it back with Myles Gaskin—Miami’s unquestioned workhorse in an injury-ravaged backfield—makes some sense if you expect this game to be relatively close. Gesicki would be my preference though. The Chiefs have been brutal against opposing wideouts—receivers only account for 57% of the receiving yardage against KC this season—and rookie Tua Tagovailoa seems far more comfortable with check-down throws (6.6 yards per attempt), a decidedly good thing for Gesicki. Last week against the Bengals, Gesicki led the team in targets and was second in air yards behind speedster Jakeem Grant.

With an 18% target share over the Dolphins’ past three games, Gesicki has re-established himself as the go-to over-the-middle target in Miami’s offense. And Kansas City has proven to be a decent matchup for tight ends, giving up 14.4 schedule-adjusted points per game to the position, the eighth highest in the league. The best part: Gesicki is still very much affordable on both DraftKings and FanDuel despite last week’s blowup performance.

Tennessee Titans (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars; O/U 52.5

QB Mike Glennon, Jaguars ($6,600 FD/$5,100 DK)

WR D.J. Chark, Jaguars ($5,900 FD/$5,300 DK)

RB Derrick Henry, Titans ($9,600 FD/$8,700 DK)

This game, featuring the week’s second-highest over/under even after a one-point drop on Wednesday, presents a cornucopia of stacking options. I’m going with this one because (I think) it reflects the most likely game script. You could definitely get exposure to both sides of this matchup in Week 14 tournaments.

Let’s start with Henry: we could see him have relatively low ownership after burning DFS players in Week 12 against the Browns. Even if that doesn’t come to pass, he’s well worth the massive price tag. Henry has more than 20 carries in eight of his 12 games this season (along with one game where he had 19 rushes) and has managed at least one touchdown in seven contests. He gets nearly all the Titans’ high-value touches on rushing attempts. In Week 14, he faces a Jacksonville front seven seeing 30.8 rushing attempts per game run against them. The Eagles, Cowboys, and Texans are the only teams that see more runs against them on a weekly basis. The Jags aren’t awful against the run but game script has dictated run-heavy game plans against them throughout 2020. Don’t expect that to change with the run-obsessed Titans this week. Henry in Week 2 against these Jaguars saw 25 carries for 87 yards along with a couple of targets. There’s not much reason to expect anything different in Week 14.

There’s no universe in which the Jags will be able to establish the run against Tennessee, the league’s preeminent pass funnel defense. More than 70% of the yards gained against the Titans this year have come via the pass. As we saw with the Browns in Week 13, anyone can pass on the Titans. They get no pressure on the passer—Tennessee has the lowest sack rate in the league—and receivers are often wide open.

Glennon’s willingness to go deep makes him appealing for tournament purposes this week. No QB has more deep shots over the past two weeks than Glennon, who has thrown 10 passes beyond 20 yards. This has produced 280 and 235 yards, respectively, in his two starts for Jacksonville. He has a whopping 78 pass attempts in those two games. Pairing him with the team’s main downfield threat, Chark, makes the most sense if we’re trying to maximize upside in a Glennon-centric stack. In Week 13 against the Vikings, Chark—returned from his rib injury—led the Jags with seven targets and 132 air yards. That he only caught two of those balls for 41 yards should keep DFS players off Chark in Week 14. Another week of 18.9 air yards per target—as he posted in Week 13—and Chark could blow the proverbial roof off against Tennessee’s burnable secondary allowing the fourth most schedule-adjusted points to wideouts.

Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) at Tampa Bay Bucs; O/U 51.5

RB Ronald Jones, Bucs ($6,300 FD/$6,100 DK)

WR Justin Jefferson, Vikings ($7,800 FD/$7,400 DK)

This is our weekly secondary stack to deploy alongside a larger stack, if you’re a correlation obsessive like me.

Minnesota isn’t a terrible matchup for running backs, but they’re certainly not a weekly target for DFS players. That should keep Jones’s Week 14 tournament usage in check. This recommendation is mostly based on usage: Jones has a hearty 24% of the team’s total opportunities (targets plus rushing attempts) over their past three games while backfield mate Leonard Fournette has just 13%. Jones has separated himself from Fournette, who looked at one point to be the favored option in Tampa’s backfield. Yes, Jones might be one ugly drop away from re-entering a backfield split with Uncle Lenny. Probably that makes him a fade for cash game purposes this week. For tournaments, his price point and usage could hardly be better. Jones is in line to get the vast majority of backfield work for a team with a 29-point implied total, one of the week’s highest.

A bigly statistical outing for Jones would probably mean the Vikings go into pass-heavy mode—a mode that has been excellent for fantasy purposes, even if it trims years off Mike Zimmer’s life expectancy. Using Jefferson or Adam Thielen—$400 cheaper than Jefferson on DraftKings and $100 cheaper on FanDuel—is viable here. I prefer Jefferson because of his explosive upside in Minnesota’s offense. Jefferson now has a 24% target share, 5% behind Thielen and closing in quickly. In the past three games in which both receivers suited up, Jefferson has dominated air yards. He goes against a Tampa secondary that’s become shockingly generous to opposing wideouts, allowing the second most adjusted fantasy points to the position. Nearly 77% of yards gained against the Bucs this season have come through the air—the highest mark in the league, higher than even Seattle. Teams can’t run against the Bucs. That’s the hope here. With a bunch of dropbacks for Kirk Cousins against a leaky Tampa secondary, Jefferson could be in for yet another high-yardage outing.

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