Week 1 NFL Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Here we go!

The NFL was wild and unpredictable before a worldwide pandemic forced the league to do away with preseason and force many stadiums to be empty in 2020. With no true home-field advantage for most teams, how will oddsmakers adjust throughout this NFL season? I guess we’ll find out.

I appreciate everyone coming along for the ride again with me this year. This will be my third season posting NFL picks for 4for4. After we had pretty good success the first two seasons, I’m hoping this will be our best year yet.

461 Seattle Seahawks at 462 Atlanta Falcons

• Spread: Seahawks -2.5
• O/U: 49
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 13

Following his team’s Week 9 bye last season, Falcons coach Dan Quinn relinquished the defensive play-calling duties to assistant head coach and secondary coach Raheem Morris, and the results were outstanding. Under Morris’s guidance, the Falcons simplified their weekly defensive game plan and the team finished 6-2 in the second half. Two of those victories came on the road versus the Saints (26-9) and 49ers (29-22), a pair of playoff teams in 2019.

With Morris now the full-time defensive play-caller, will Atlanta build on its second-half success from last season? It’s doubtful. According to Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, the Falcons improved tremendously on third downs in the second half last season but still struggled on early downs. Their defense allowed 7.3 yards per attempt and 4.8 yards per carry on first downs over their final eight games, leading to a 52% success rate for opponents on early downs. With so much offseason turnover occurring for this team (out are Vic Beasley Jr., Desmond Trufant, Adrian Clayborn and De’Vondre Campbell; in are Dante Fowler Jr. and two rookies in A.J. Terrell and Marlon Davidson), I’m banking on more early-season struggles for the Falcons this season.

As for Atlanta’s opponent this Sunday, Seattle's magic eventually ran out last season and I believe they’ll take a step back after winning 11 games in 2019. Seattle went 10-2 in one-score games last year, which is a trend often unsustainable from season to season. That said, I see the Falcons struggling to get off the field defensively against Russell Wilson and the run-first Seahawks, who will use their own defense to force Matt Ryan and Co. into some crucial fourth-quarter turnovers to edge Atlanta in Week 1.

NFL Week 1 Selection: Seattle Seahawks -2.5

475 Tampa Bay Bucs at 476 New Orleans Saints

• Spread: Saints -3.5
• O/U: 49
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 13

It’ll be interesting to see if Tom Brady’s struggles in the second half last season had more to do with New England's lack of skill players on offense or Father Time finally paying the G.O.A.T. a visit. That said, give me a motivated, rejuvenated Brady in an underdog role any day of the week.

The Saints are still the team to beat in the NFC South, although they have their own question marks under center. Make no mistake: Drew Brees is still a top-tier quarterback. He’s still deadly in two-minute situations and his ability to read the field might be second to only Brady. That said, he started to show major signs of regression in December of 2018, and he no longer throws the ball well outside the numbers. Opponents able to pressure him up the middle also have good success, which I believe the Bucs can do on Sunday.

One other factor working for the Bucs: With no crowd, how much home-field advantage will the Saints truly have on Sunday? Even with their passionate fans, the Saints are just 22-30 against the spread at home since 2014. Granted, they’ve often laid big numbers as home favorites over the years, but their margin of victory in their nine home games (one playoff loss to Minnesota) last season was just 4.2. I see Sunday’s game coming down to the wire and I’ll be glad to have the 3.5 points and Brady in my back pocket when it does.

NFL Week 1 Selection: Tampa Bay Bucs +3.5

477 Dallas Cowboys at 478 Los Angeles Rams

• Spread: Cowboys -3
• O/U: 51.5
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 13

Considering there was no preseason this year, I’m leery of backing any team that underwent coaching changes this offseason. That said, this line is too good to pass on the Cowboys, regardless of whether or not Dak Prescott and Co. had enough time to learn the nuances of Mike McCarthy’s offense. (Besides, Kellen Moore was retained as the offensive coordinator, so it’s not as if Prescott had to learn a completely new system.)

Under Moore a year ago, the Cowboys offense finished sixth in points, first in total yards, fifth in rushing and second in passing. Those were significant improvements from 2018, when they finished 22nd in points, 22nd in total yards, 10th in rushing and 23rd in passing. The hope is Moore continues to grow under McCarthy, who will have influence over the offense, but that it’s still Moore’s baby. Regardless of how that relationship unfolds, the Cowboys are loaded on that side of the ball, from Prescott to Ezekiel Elliott to a (hopefully) healthy Amari Cooper to rookie first-round wideout CeeDee Lamb. Dallas also retains a top-3 offensive line, albeit one that must replace center Travis Frederick (retirement).

Meanwhile, the sentiment last year was that Sean McVay’s offense took a step back because of Todd Gurley’s health (or lack thereof). That’s true, although I point to the cratering of the offensive line as the bigger issue for McVay and Co. No team’s offensive line took a bigger step back in 2019. Andrew Whitworth has been fantastic for the Rams, but he’s 39 and his pass-blocking wasn’t as good a year ago as it was in 2018, when the Rams went to the Super Bowl. Right tackle Rob Havenstein continues to regress and the interior of the team’s line is still largely inexperienced. Jared Goff struggled last season, yes, but how much did that have to do with center Brian Allen and the team’s guards not holding up in pass protection? No quarterback wants pressure in his face.

Without wholesale improvement from their O-Line this year, I’m banking on McVay’s offense getting off to another slow start. The Cowboys are the more talented team in this matchup and they’re only laying a field goal on the road. Give me Dallas.

NFL Week 1 Selection: Dallas Cowboys -3

NFL Week 1 Three-Team, 6-Point Teaser: Seahawks +3.5, Bucs +9.5, Cowboys +3