FantasyDraft Week 9 Value Plays

Oct 31, 2019
FantasyDraft Week 9 Value Plays

Each week, l offer my favorite plays for the Sunday slate on FantasyDraft. 4for4’s Lineup Generator allows users to quickly pinpoint the top values at each position and I will expand on how each player is best deployed, whether it’s by game type, as part of a stack or simply a core value across all formats. Note that FantasyDraft is a full-PPR site with yardage bonuses but the roster requires only two wide receivers and implements two FLEX positions.

Quarterback

Russell Wilson ($13,900) vs. Buccaneers

Wilson is almost $1,000 more than the QB2 on this week’s main slate but it’s a warranted premium to pay. The Seahawks are the only team on the slate projected for at least 28 points—they’re implied number currently sits at 28.75—and they are facing the biggest pass funnel in the league. Tampa Bay ranks first in 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs but they are bottom two against every other position, including 31st against quarterbacks. As the league-leader in fantasy points per pass attempt, Wilson’s point projection is 22% higher than any other signal-caller on the slate.

Philip Rivers ($10,200) vs. Packers

If you aren’t going to pay up for Wilson, then saving as much as possible at the position is the preferred option. Though the matchup doesn’t stand out, this should be one of the higher-scoring games of the week, with the over/under currently sitting at 48 and a spread of just three. Only two teams have thrown at a higher rate in neutral game script than the Chargers this season and that’s given Rivers one of the safest passing floors in the league. He has eclipsed 300 yards five times this season, throwing multiple touchdowns in each of those games.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey ($18,700) vs. Titans

After showing what he can do against a seemingly invincible 49ers defense, McCaffrey’s price almost can’t be high enough. He leads the league in percentage of team touches and is posting an absurd 31.3 FantasyDraft points per game. The Titans are a middle-of-the-road run defense and Carolina is favored by 3.5 points at home.

Aaron Jones ($14,900) @Chargers

Jones has reclaimed his role as the primary back in Green Bay, accounting for 62% of the team’s backfield touches over the last two weeks, including two-thirds of touches to running backs in Week 8. Where Jones has been especially valuable is in the passing game, with 20% of the team’s targets over the last month. If Davante Adams returns this week, Jones’s target volume could certainly take a dip but he is in a great spot as a favorite against the Chargers’ 29th-ranked running back defense.

Wide Receiver

Chris Godwin ($13,700) @ Seahawks

With some of the biggest names at wide receiver off the main slate, both Tampa Bay receivers top this week’s value report but Godwin comes at a $400 discount to Mike Evans. The Buccaneers feature one of the most concentrated passing attacks in the league with Godwin and Evans combing for 51% of the team’s targets. This gives them both an exceptionally high floor and Tampa’s pass defense almost ensures that their offense will be forced to throw. This makes for a great correlation play with Week 9’s top-projected quarterback playing on the other side.

John Brown ($10,900) vs. Redskins

Brown is one of nine players with at least 24% of his team’s targets and a share of air yards over 30% but his lack of touchdowns has kept his price quite low. The Bills get one of their best passing matchups of the season against a Redskins secondary ranked 30th in wide receiver aFPA. The biggest weakness in Washington has been Josh Norman, who is allowing the second-most fantasy points per target among Week 9 starting corners (minimum 20 targets). Norman should line up across Brown for most of the day.

Tight End

Darren Waller ($11,500) vs. Lions

There may not be a more important game to have exposure to this week than Lions/Raiders, especially as it pertains to the passing games. This game has an over/under above 50 with a spread of just two in favor of Oakland, who is at home. Both defenses rank outside the top 20 against quarterbacks and tight ends and Waller has the best price relative to his volume in the game. No tight end has seen a higher target share this year and he’s averaging over eight looks per game.

Zach Ertz ($8,700) vs. Bears

No active tight end has seen a sharper price decrease this year than Zach Ertz, whose salary is down $2,700 since Week 1. The savvy move is to buy while the public is fearful and Ertz might never be cheaper than he is right now. The Eagles tight end is still averaging nearly eight targets per game and Philadelphia is at home as five-point favorites against a Bears defense ranked 26th against tight ends.

Defense and Special Teams

Bills ($6,800) vs. Redskins

There’s a good chance Dwayne Haskins could start and while it’s an extremely small sample, the rookie has thrown an interception on 18% of his 22 attempts. Even if Case Keenum can go, he’s behind a bottom-10 pass-blocking line and the Bills are favored by 9.5 points. When adjusted for strength of schedule, Washington ranks 27th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses.

Browns ($5,200) @ Broncos

Denver was already a fine offense to target with your fantasy defense. The Broncos rank bottom five in adjusted sack rate and have allowed the sixth-most points to opposing defenses when adjusted for strength of schedule. College under-achiever Brandon Allen makes his first start against one of the best pass-rushing units in the league. Priced behind 11 defenses on the slate makes Cleveland one of the best values of the week.

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