DFS Air Yards Buy-Low Model: Week 8

Oct 24, 2018
DFS Air Yards Buy-Low Model: Week 8

It's Week 8 of the Air Yards Buy-Low Model! We've reached the half-way point of the season (how is that even possible?) and the Buy-Low Model is here to help you find your under-valued receivers.

For new readers, the model looks at players who received opportunity in the form of targets and air yards and offers an expected fantasy points value based on those inputs. It then highlights which players underperformed relative to that expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production in the form of catches, touchdowns and shot plays are not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise. The model helps us do just that. This week the model sports an out-of-sample r-squared of 0.63, a very strong number.

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In GPPs you need to look beyond the scores and identify value plays that are low-owned that can set your team apart. Here is a list of receivers and tight ends who have underperformed their volume for the past three weeks that the model thinks could be in store for a bounce-back week in the near future. Maybe even Week 8.

Air Yards Week 8 Buy Lows
Name Predicted FP Actual FP Diff.
Donte Moncrief 10.9 9.4 -1.5
Willie Snead 10.4 9.6 -0.8
Jamison Crowder 10.3 9.5 -0.8
Sammy Watkins 9.8 9.7 -0.1
Golden Tate 9.5 8.4 -1.1
Seth Roberts 9.1 8.1 -1.0
Keelan Cole 9.0 7.7 -1.2
Kelvin Benjamin 8.9 6.5 -2.4
Ryan Grant 8.9 8.1 -0.8
DeSean Jackson 8.8 8.1 -0.7
Doug Baldwin 8.7 8.1 -0.6
Zay Jones 8.5 7.7 -0.8
Keke Coutee 8.4 8.2 -0.1
Josh Doctson 8.4 6.1 -2.3
Will Fuller 8.1 7.2 -0.9
Anthony Miller 8.0 7.7 -0.3
Pierre Garcon 7.9 6.3 -1.6
Ryan Griffin 7.9 6.3 -1.7
Marcus Murphy 7.8 6.7 -1.1
Jermaine Kearse 7.7 6.9 -0.8
Corey Davis 7.7 5.4 -2.3
Allen Hurns 7.6 6.6 -1.1
Mike Williams 7.6 7.1 -0.5
Marvin Jones 7.5 6.9 -0.7
James O'Shaughnessy 7.4 7.2 -0.2
Jordan Reed 7.2 6.0 -1.2
Ricky Seals-Jones 7.0 5.0 -2.0

Key Takeaways

  • Donte Moncrief ($4,400 DK/$5,700 FD) blew up last time he was on the list, and while choosing between the various Jacksonville receivers has become a bit of a chore, there is reason to like him in Week 8. Moncrief is the clear leader in opportunity on Jacksonville with a Weighted Opportunity Rating of 0.50. He accounts for 18 percent of the Jaguars' targets and 32 percent of their air yards. He's been slightly inefficient, catching under half his passes, but some of that can be accounted for in his team-leading 11.7 average depth of target (aDOT). He's cheap on DK and FD and sits proudly at the top of the list, making him someone to seriously consider in tournament lineups.
  • Sammy Watkins ($4,600 DK/$6,400 FD) is not a player I like. He's also not a player my season-long model likes. But he's third in line for opportunity in a prolific offense, and we know even grossly overrated receivers can have a spike game every now and again. Bet on Sammy running fewer decoy routes, and Mahomes connecting deep with him for a nice shot play in Week 8.
  • Kelvin Benjamin ($3.700 DK/$5,000 FD) is back on the list again, and I want to vomit. He profiles similar to Moncrief in terms of target share and share of team air yards (18 percent target share / 34 percent market share of air yards) but the Buffalo offense is unquestionably the armpit of the league. I can't recommend him personally, and I wish he would go away off the list and never come back.
  • DeSean Jackson ($5,300 DK/$6,400 FD), on the other hand, makes me smile. In Week 1 he was in the Milly-winning lineup, and he is capable of returning that kind of value again in Week 8. He and Winston seem poised to have a breakout game together. Of all the names on the list, his is the one I'm most excited about. Take that for what it's worth.
  • Marvin Jones ($4,800 DK/$6,000 FD) is on the list for the first time this season. He's playing third fiddle to Golden Tate (also on the list) and Kenny Golladay in the Detroit pecking order, but Jones has always been a player capable of the explosive spike game. Plus his Weighted Opportunity (0.48 WOPR) isn't that far behind Tate (0.56 WOPR) and Golladay (0.52 WOPR), making Jones a solid play on DK, especially at his price.

Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images.

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