DFS Tight End Analysis: Week 11

Nov 16, 2017

DFS is a game of exploiting a lot of small edges, therefore all options at each position should be explored every week. Below is an analysis of this week’s tight ends on the main slate, including the upside and downside of the most viable players on the slate with explanations for how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

Chalk

Two of the best tight ends in the game are on teams that are big favorites with top-three implied point totals, so it’s no surprise Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce top the ownership projections on both sites. On DraftKings, Gronk and Kelce have salaries well above the rest of the field, so fading them will lead to an entirely different roster makeup compared to lineups that roster chalk at the position. FanDuel offers natural price pivots away from the chalk at tight end.

The Patriots are projected to score 30 points, giving them the highest implied point total of the week. Only two tight ends are averaging more targets per game than Rob Gronkowski ($8,200 FD/$7,200 DK) and just five players have more red zone targets on the season. While the Raiders pass defense has struggled this season, they’ve been respectable against tight ends and have buckled down in the red zone. Oakland ranks in the bottom 10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to every skill position except tight end, where they rank in the top half of the league, and only six teams have allowed a lower passing touchdown rate in the red zone than the Raiders.
The Chiefs are favored by 10.5 points with an implied point total near 28 and Travis Kelce ($7,500/$7,300) will face a Giants defense ranked 31st in tight end aFPA. New York has allowed the most touchdowns to the position this season, giving up a score to the position in every game this year. Kelce is the top-projected value at his position on FanDuel and a top-two value on DK, but Kansas City dominates the top of the value reports this week and owners may not want to risk rostering three players from one offense in cash games.