Week 6 vs Bengals
Sammy Watkins did not play again last week with a calf injury. He says he will be back Sunday, but is still listed as questionable and Coach Rex Ryan says the team will wait and see.
If Watkins is back, his fantasy value will remain low. QB Tyrod Taylor is expected out and that means E.J. Manuel will get the start which will not be good for all Bills offensive skill players.
Keep Watkins on the bench no matter what his status is Sunday against the Bengals.
Week 3 at Dolphins
After being shut out in Week 1, Sammy Watkins bounced back with six catches for 60 yards and more important, his first touchdown of the season (yes, it was garbage time, but you take what you can get as a fantasy owner). The Bills made a more conscious effort to get him involved in the offense and even though the numbers aren't earth-shattering, they are much better than the opener.
Watkins struggled in the game at Miami last year, so this week's matchup is fairly neutral. Watkins is rated a low-end WR2 for Week 2. He should be a starter in all leagues, but definitely needs to step up his game.
Week 2 vs Patriots
If the first week is any indication of which direction Buffalo's offense is going to go, it is not good news for Sammy Watkins owners. The second-year receiver had zero catches and only 3 targets against the Colts. The Bills only attempted 19 passes and will let QB Tyrod Taylor be a game manager, at least early in the season.
Watkins will face a Patriots secondary that is questionable. If Buffalo does decide to look Watkins way more this week, he could have some decent production. But we don't think that will be the Bills game plan, so keep Watkins on the bench for Week 2 in all formats.
Week 1 vs Colts
The Bills passing game will rely on Sammy Watkins to be a play maker, but how effective will new QB Tyrod Taylor be? Watkins sat out a lot of training camp due to injury, but Buffalo has said he is almost 100% so we will assume that's not a factor. Indianapolis is not a good matchup for wide receivers, so Watkins should probably be in your lineup solely due to his potential. That said, he only ranks a low-end WR3 for Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Physical freak is a good description for Sammy Watkins. The second-year receiver had his share of ups-and-downs during his rookie season, but the overall numbers were very good. While he was outplayed by some other rookie receivers last season, Watkins will be better with a year under his belt in every category.
Fantasy Downside
There is always the sophomore slump. And the QB issue in Buffalo won't help. Tyrod Taylor won the job late in camp, but there is no telling how good he will be or if he fails, how good his replacement will be. Of course, all of this affects Watkins.
Bottom Line
Watkins was picked fourth overall in the 2014 NFL Draft for a reason. His talent level is unquestionable. His ADP is pretty high at 61 and his WR ranking is also high at 33. Don't think that is a reflection on Watkins. It is more an indictment of the Bills QB situation. I would actually take Watkins higher, because I don't think some of the players ahead of him aren't nearly as talented.
Week 17: Watkins vs Patriots
Sammy Watkins has been very quiet the second half of the season, but last week's performance shows you he is capable of helping fantasy teams on any given week. Watkins only caught three balls but for 75 yards and a touchdown. There is no doubt his talent level is high and that gives him the potential every week to have a fantasy impact.
This week, he will face New England who is 6th in aFPA to wide receivers. Watkins only had 27 yards receiving against Darrelle Revis and company. Start him in all leagues, but only as a low-end WR2. The matchup could limit his output.
Week 16: Watkins vs Raiders
Unfortunately, Sammy Watkins owners aren't getting what they expected from the top wide receiver in the draft, especially when you see what other rookies have done in 2014. Yes, he is capable of monster fantasy numbers like he had two weeks ago, but most of his performances have had minimal impact. Last week, he had one catch which was his season-low. He also was only targeted six times.
Watkins faces Oakland this week who is 21st in aFPA to wide receivers. With a decent matchup, it would be wise to have him in your lineup if you play three wide receivers or a flex spot. He could have one of those explosive games in Week 16, but is still a risk to have another low output game as well. That's why we have him at the high-end WR3 rating.
Week 15: Watkins vs Packers
Sammy Watkins finally awoke from his second half slumber with seven catches for 127 yards. It helped that the Bills threw the ball 57 times and targeted Watkins 12 times, his highest total since Week 7. Buffalo doesn't want to throw the ball that much they have to be happy getting the football to their gifted rookie. One down side is he has now gone five straight games without a touchdown.
Watkins has a great matchup this week against the Packers who are 30th in aFPA to wide receivers. Even though the Bills will lean more on Fred Jackson and the running game this week, he will be a solid WR2 fantasy option for Week 15 if he gets his targets.
Week 14: Watkins vs Broncos
The production has fallen off for Sammy Watkins as he has had only 16 catches over his last five games. The targets have been there, but the fantasy numbers have not. He has fought through some injuries, but overall he is showing how a rookie receiver can struggle.
It's a neutral matchup for Week 14 against Denver who is 18th in aFPA to wide receivers. Even with the recent struggles, Watkins has the talent to put up a good game, and QB Kyle Orton is still trying to get him the football. Start Watkins against the Broncos as a WR3 or flex option.
Week 13: Watkins vs Browns
Sammy Watkins production has been down the past two weeks as he has had only six catches and 12 targets combined. Overall, it seems he just hasn't been connecting with Kyle Orton. There is no doubt Watkins is a superb talent, but the rookie's numbers aren't saying that lately.
The Browns are the next opponent and are 17th in aFPA to wide receivers. Watkins will still have some big games this season, but don't expect that this week. He is starter, but only a high-end WR3.
