Week 2 at Oakland Raiders
We mentioned last week how Sammy Watkins was sneakily valuable in 2018, but there was no way of predicting what he'd do in Week 1. He led all fantasy wideouts by dominating with a 9-198-3 stat line (on 11 targets). He was already playing well early, but his big game was mostly due to the fact Tyreek Hill left the game early due to injury. Hill is expected to be sidelined for several weeks, which makes Watkins a hot commodity.
It'd be foolish to expect a repeat of his Week 1 effort, but he should be able to put up big numbers again. He's a talented wide receiver in an explosive offense with not much depth at the receiver position. On top of all that, he gets a great matchup against Oakland. He's now a must-start WR1 option for Week 2.
Week 1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sammy Watkins' season numbers from last year won't jump out at you, but you need to remember he missed games due to injury. When healthy and able to finish a full game, Watkins actually produced solid numbers with the Chiefs (4.9-64-.38 pace, which comes out to 78-1030-6 on the season).
Watkins could have a decent role this week against the Jaguars as Tyreek Hill gets shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. Patrick Mahomes finished with over 300 passing yards last year against Jacksonville, so there's clearly plenty of love to go around. Watkins finished 6-78 against the Jaguars in 2018. We project him finishing a little shy of those numbers, making him a WR3 option this week.
Fantasy Upside
Sammy Watkins was a sneakily good option in 2018 before his injury sidelined him for the season. His points per game were affected by a few low-snap outings (7%, 15%). If you count those out, he was on a 4.9-64-.38 pace, which comes out to 78-1030-6 over the course of the season. He’s only 26 years old with a lot of talent in a great offense with arguably the best quarterback in the league.
Fantasy Downside
Watkins’ downside for 2019 is the same as it’s been for his entire career: injuries. He’s missed 18 of his last 64 games, and even when he doesn’t miss entire games he may play through injuries and limit his full value. He hasn’t surpassed 600+ receiving yards in any of his last three seasons, so while the talent is clearly there, the production just hasn’t been.
2019 Bottom Line
When healthy, Watkins can put up WR2 numbers. He was on pace for it last season before being sidelined. But his injury risk knocks him down to WR3 range. He’s a high-risk, high-reward type of player. If you have other talented receivers in your lineup, it might be worth the risk to draft Watkins so you won’t be burned in case he flops. But if you’re able to select him later in the draft, he could end up being a real value pick.
Week 19 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sammy Watkins missed six of the final seven games of the season, although he appears to be on track to play against the Colts. Watkins played mostly well in the games he was active, but he's still listed as questionable heading in to this matchup. We expect him to play, but he may not be at full strength, making him a risky option for fantasy. Especially in a poorer matchup against the Colts.
Week 11 at Los Angeles Rams
Sammy Watkins has had a decent season, but as is always the case with him, injuries have played a factor. He was inactive last week, making it essentially two games he's missed with injuries. He should be fine to return this week and get back to what he was doing before getting hurt. In the three games prior to being inactive, Watkins was averaging 81 yards per game.
Against the Rams, Watkins can be viewed as a high-end WR3. We expect this to be a high-scoring game, and Watkins has had a solid role while healthy this season. He has the ability to take advantage of the Rams' defense which has allowed 11 pass plays of 40+ yards this season, a league high.
Week 9 at Cleveland Browns
Sammy Watkins had his best game as a member of the Chiefs last week. He finished with a season-high in targets (9), receptions (8), yards (107) and touchdowns (2). It was his second 100-yard game of the season, and his fourth game with at least 70 yards. Watkins can be a strong option on certain weeks despite his really low performances mixed in as well.
Watkins will get a decent matchup this week against the Browns where he could be in for a slightly bigger role. Tyreek Hill injured his groin in Week 8 and has been limited at practice. Even if Hill plays this week, he could be limited, making Watkins more reliable. He can be viewed as a low-end WR or strong WR3 choice.
Week 8 vs. Denver Broncos
Sammy Watkins had a nice 4-74 game last week as he now has 70+ yards in three games this season. The problem is, he's averaging 23.5 yards in the other four games. Watkins has been very hit-or-miss in 2018, making him a difficult fantasy option.
He very much a miss the last time he played Denver, putting up a goose egg. To be fair, he was injured in that game and missed most of it. He'll be a risky WR4 option this week vs. the Broncos.
Week 7 vs. Cincinatti Bengals
Sammy Watkins has had 50+ yards in three games this season, but he's also had less than 25 yards in the other three games. He has a lone score on the year, and his production has been very hit or miss. He still carries some value in fantasy, but he's a risky play due to how hot-and-cold he's been.
Watkins gets a decent matchup this week against the Bengals, where he can be viewed as a WR3. If he's able to steal away some looks from Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce, he should be fine for fantasy purposes.
Week 6 at New England Patriots
After a goose egg performance where Sammy Watkins left due to injury, the wideout bounced back with a solid 6-78 against a tough Jaguars defense. Watkins now has at least five catches in three straight games if you take out the one where he left early.
This week, Watkins can be viewed as a decent WR3 choice in a matchup against New England. The Patriots and Chiefs are two of the highest scoring offenses, which could lead to a shootout.
Week 5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sammy Watkins laid a big ole goose egg last week (0 catches) after leaving the game midway through the first half with a hamstring injury. He's been limited in practice, although he appears to be on track to play.
If he does suit up, he gets a brutal matchup against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, and Watkins is such a low option in this offense. He's a WR4 or WR5 at best.
