Week 2 vs. Washington
Sammy Watkins had a nice debut performance for the Rams, catching all 5 of his targets for 58 yards in the Rams' win over the Colts. The big takeaway was that the former Bill looked in sync with quarterback Jared Goff, despite limited practice time together. Watkins finished with only 7.74 points in standard leagues and 12.05 points in PPR, although his opportunities were limited in the second half because the Rams jumped out to a massive lead. This team still figures to play from behind a lot, so Watkins should see more production in the upcoming weeks.
That said, will that production be there this week against Washington? It's unlikely he'll see a big boost. Washington ranks No. 15 against fantasy receivers and Watkins will see plenty of cornerback Josh Norman on Sunday. Ranked as our WR36 in Week 2, view Watkins as a FLEX option only.
Week 1 vs. Indianapolis Colts
After playing only eight games last season for the Bills (and 37 games in three seasons in Buffalo), the team decided to trade Sammy Watkins this offseason to the Rams in exchange for a second-round pick and cornerback E.J. Gaines. Watkins caught just 28 passes for 430 yards with 2 touchdowns in 2016, but will he be Jared Goff's No. 1 target in Los Angeles?
Watkins and the Rams will host the new-look Colts on Sunday. Indianapolis ranks as fantasy's No. 17 defense against wide receivers but the Colts completely remodeled that side of the ball this offseason. Thus, nobody is sure what to make of Indy's defense this early in the season. With so much change (only one of 11 players that the Colts started in their opener last season is still on the roster), Indianapolis could be a mess defensively for the first couple weeks. Ranked as our No. 34 wide receiver, consider Watkins as an intriguing FLEX option in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Despite chronic health issues, Sammy Watkins has as much upside as any receiver in fantasy. The Rams traded a 2018 sixth-round pick, cornerback E.J. Gaines, and a 2018 second-round pick to acquire Watkins from Buffalo. Watkins instantly becomes the most dangerous weapon in Sean McVay's passing game and figures to be targeted heavily, provided he can stay on the field. If QB Jared Goff can improve off a rough rookie season, then Watkins has appeal as a fantasy WR2.
Fantasy Downside
One of the reasons the Bills declined Watkins' fifth-year option is because he can't stay healthy. It was highly unlikely they were going to sign him long-term next offseason, so they unloaded him on the Rams for multiple picks and a potential starting cornerback in Gaines. Watkins is hell when well, but he missed eight games a year ago due to a foot injury. Lower-body issues are problematic for receivers, especially a wideout like Watkins, who relies on his tremendous speed to create separation in coverage. The upside is immense, but that upside is tied to Watkins' health, which is seemingly always in question.
2017 Bottom Line
Watkins currently ranks as our WR29. While Goff is a downgrade from Tyrod Taylor, moving from the Bills to the Rams isn't vastly different, given that both teams operate run-first offenses. Plus, when healthy, Watkins will be targeted a ton in the passing game. If Goff can improve and Watkins can stay on the field, then he has tremendous appeal as a fantasy WR2. But you know the drill by now: Watkins is a walking injury and there's good reason why the Bills were willing to trade him despite his No. 1 WR status. His current ADP is 4.03 in 10-team leagues and 3.09 in 12-team leagues. Nobody will blame you if you want to bypass Watkins on draft night given his injury history and the Rams' punchless offense. He's a major risk in the fourth round, but the payoff could also be huge.
Week 17 at New York Jets
Sammy Watkins gave his owners a gift last week with seven receptions for 154 yards and a touchdown. His 10 targets were a season-high, and as we have mentioned before, he is capable of games like this.
Watkins will not have Tyrod Taylor at QB this week, and instead, it will be E.J. Manuel under center. The Jets are next up and they rank 16th in aFPA to wide receivers. There is no matchup advantage either way, but the quarterback situation concerns us. Start Watkins, but only as a solid WR2 for Week 17.
Week 16 vs Miami
Sammy Watkins has not been very strong since his return. He only caught one pass last week and was only targeted four times. The Buffalo passing game has not been great, so Watkins inability to put up numbers could be a result of that factor, because we know Watkins can put WR1 numbers.
He did not play in Week 7 against the Fins, but he did have a monster game against them back in 2015 with eight catches for 168 yards and a touchdown. Miami is ranked 28th in aFPA to wide receivers, so it is a good matchup for Watkins. But because of the limited success in the Buffalo passing game, he only rates a WR3 or flex for Week 16.
Week 15 vs Cleveland
Sammy Watkins scored his first touchdown of the season and caught four passes for 54 yards last week. He was on the field for 94 percent of the snaps, which was his highest since he returned three weeks ago. Watkins was only targeted six times, which is a low number considering the Bills other options in the passing game
Watkins has a decent matchup this week against the Browns, who are 20th in aFPA to wide receivers. He should see more touches and more production on Sunday. His foot is still not 100 percent, but he is expected to play. Start him as a solid WR2 for Week 15.
Week 14 vs Pittsburgh
The good news for Sammy Watkins owners is that he was targeted nine times last Sunday. The bad news is that he only produced three receptions for 38 yards and zero touchdowns. It's good that Watkins is becoming more involved with the Buffalo offense. Now, he just has to produce.
It won't be easy this week as Pittsburgh is ranked eighth in aFPA to wide receivers. But we are encouraged by the amount of touches, and the production should follow for a talent like Watkins. Start him for Week 14 as a high-end WR3 or flex. He will be a fantasy factor down the stretch.
Week 13 at Oakland
Sammy Watkins made a surprise return last week and caught three passes on three targets for 80 yards. His foot is still not 100 percent, but Coach Rex Ryan said he is fine after practicing on Thursday. Watkins' return is a relief for the Bills, who have been hit hard by injuries at the wide receiver position. It also helps that Watkins is their best overall receiver and second-best offensive weapon after Shady McCoy.
The Bills face the Raiders, who are ninth in aFPA to wide receivers this season. Watkins should see more targets, but the Bills overall offense is still a big question mark, especially on the road.
Start Watkins for Week 13 as a flex or WR3.
Week 2 vs New York Jets
Just like in 2015, Sammy Watkins is off to a slow start. In the opener, he caught four passes for 43 yards. Yes, we know Watkins can be streaky, but the second half of last season seemed to be an awakening. So, maybe the entire Bills offense was the problem in Week 1?
The biggest concern for Watkins owners is his health. Early in the week, there were reports surfacing that Watkins could be out for a prolonged amount of time with his lingering foot injury, but he confirmed he will play on Thursday and coach Rex Ryan didn't disagree.
However, Watkins only rates as a WR3 for Thursday night due to his injury and the matchup. He definitely should be in your lineup in some capacity, but don't expect a big night from him.
Week 1 at Baltimore
Sammy Watkins could become the next big-time wide receiver in the NFL if he can get a little more consistency. He was great for the second half of the season after he missed three games in the first half with injury. His big-game potential could elevate him to WR1 status.
He'll face a Ravens secondary this week that wasn't very good last year and didn't do much to improve in the offseason. Watkins is officially questionable for the game, but he did skip the last preseason game and coach Rex Ryan claims he will be ready to go Sunday. Remember, Watkins did have offseason foot surgery, so that is something to keep an eye on -- especially early in 2016.
Watkins has a favorable matchup for Week 1, which elevates him to a low-end WR1. As long as he is healthy, he should be dangerous in every game. Start him in all leagues in formats against Baltimore.
