Fantasy Upside
Sammy Watkins continues to show signs of greatness, especially down the stretch in 2015. He averaged 113 receiving yard per game the last six weeks and scored six of his eight touchdowns during that stretch. Watkins also improved his yards per catch by 2.5 yards from his rookie season. No doubt he is a No. 1 type-guy and the Bills offensive game plan will treat him that way.
Fantasy Downside
The first half of Watkin's second season was a different story. He was plagued by inconsistencies and health issues which limited him to 11 receptions in 7 games. Also keep in mind he did have foot surgery in April and so there still could be issues. Finally, the Bills are a running team first under Rex Ryan. Buffalo had the fourth least passing yards in the NFL.
2016 Bottom Line
Fantasy owners liked what they saw at the end of 2015 from Watkins, but there are still to many red flags to say he can put up elite numbers. Going into the season, he is borderline WR1, and I think most people would designate him as a high-end WR2. If you have a chance to get him the 3rd round, he will be worth the risk. His ADP of 30 is a little low and there are other receivers going ahead of him that don't have the upside he does.
Week 17 vs New York Jets
For the third straight game, Sammy Watkins had five receptions, but for the first time in those three games, he did not score a touchdown. No doubt Watkins has become a big-play receiver. However, that could change this week with Watkins visiting Revis Island. In the first meeting, he was held to three catches for 14 yards.
Overall, the advantage favors the Bills this week as New York is 25th in aFPA to wide receivers, but Watkins matchup is not favorable against Revis.
Watkins is still a starter for Week 17 as an WR2, but we are not as optimistic as we have been with him in recent weeks.
Week 16 vs Dallas
Sammy Watkins continues to have an impressive second half of the season. He recorded his third 100-yard receiving yard game in the last four weeks and has scored six touchdowns over that span. He has really become a big-play receiver, averaging 24 yards per catch over those four weeks.
The Cowboys are up next and have been very good against wide receivers ranking 2nd in aFPA. But even with a less favorable matchup, Watkins has really stepped up his game and we expect more of the same on Sunday. Start him as solid WR1 for Week 16.
Week 15 at Washington
Sammy Watkins has been one of the hottest wide receives in the NFL. He caught five passes for 81 yards and a touchdown for the third straight game. He has been doing most of his damage in the first half, getting fantasy owners their points quickly.
Watkins has been jumping up the 4for4 rankings the past several weeks as he has been healthy and consistent. The Redskins are 22nd in aFPA to wide receivers, so the matchup if favorable for Week 15. Start Watkins as a low-end WR1 against Washington.
Week 14 vs Philadelphia
After disappearing for a couple division games, Sammy Watkins has had two very strong games against pretty good defenses. He has back-to back 100-plus yards and three touchdowns the last two weeks. Watkins has been all about the big play, as he has averaged 31 yards per catch over that stretch.
It could be more big plays this week against Philly, who is 31st in aFPA to wide receivers. The only thing keeping Watkins from being a WR1 is the fact his fantasy numbers are relying on the big plays and touchdowns (only averaging less than four catches per game this season). But there is no reason to think he won't keep doing what has been doing against the Eagles. Start him as a solid WR2 for Week 14.
Week 13 vs Houston
Sammy Watkins exploded in the first half against Kansas City last week and ended up with six catches for 158 yards and two touchdowns. It was a pleasant surprise for Watkins owners who had not seen the Buffalo No. 1 receiver score multiple touchdowns in a game this season. No doubt this is what he is capable of, but has to be more consistent.
It won't be easy going against the Houston defense that is 7th in aFPA to wide receivers. That matchup along with 'we want to see more' ranks Watkins down to a low-end WR2 for Week 13. We don't expect a repeat of last week's numbers.
Week 12 at Kansas City
After a 168 yard game in Week 9, Sammy Watkins has combined for just six catches for 53 over the past two games. The Bills want to involve the second-year first round draft pick, but have had trouble consistently getting him the ball. Watkins has a great matchup for Week 12, as Kansas City is 29th in aFPA to wide receivers. But can the Bills take advantage of this matchup with Watkins? We aren't confident, but he still good enough to earn a spot in your lineup as a high-end WR3 or flex this Sunday.
Week 11 at New England
After returning from injury, Sammy Watkins has had mixed results the last two games. His targets have been steady, but he exploded for 168 yards and a touchdown two weeks ago and then only had three catches for 14 yards last week.
The matchup is favorable for Buffalo wide receivers as New England is 21st in aFPA to wide receivers. But it's hard to say which Sammy Watkins will show up this week, as consistency has been a major problem in his first two seasons in the NFL. We rate Watkins a low-end WR2 for Week 11, as he should put up some decent fantasy numbers to help your team.
Week 10 at New York Jets
The oft-injured Sammy Watkins turned in his best game of the season last week with some amazing stats. He was targeted eight times and caught all eight targets for 168 yards and a touchdown. If he can stay on the field, Watkins should have a very good second half of the season, as he is an elite talent.
Things won't be that easy this week against a good Jets secondary. We can probably expect Darrelle Revis on Watkins this week, which will limit his output. Start Watkins for Week 10, but only as a WR3 or flex player.
Week 9 vs Dolphins
Sammy Watkins is still being bothered by the ankle injury that has kept him off the field since October 18th. He should play, but you might want to keep an eye on the inactives list on Sunday. Even if he does play, he has struggled this season with only 11 receptions -- not exactly what the Bills expected when they drafted him in the 1st round.
Watkins will face the Miami defense this weekend, which is 19th in aFPA to wide receivers, but he is definitely a fantasy risk because of the injury and the production so far this year. Keep Watkins on the bench for Week 9.
