Week 8 at Indianapolis Colts
Ryan Tannehill notched one of his better fantasy performances of 2021 in Week 7, which unfortunately isn't saying much these days. Tannehill threw for 270 yards with a touchdown and interception to go along with a short rushing score. Tannehill's 2021 season has not gone well for fantasy purposes (he's averaging roughly 16.5 fantasy points per game), and that's even with it being buoyed by three rushing touchdowns through seven games. The Titans' passing attack always thrived off extreme efficiency under Arthur Smith, and with the team maintaining its steadfast run-first philosophy with Smith gone, the drop in efficiency this season has rendered Tannehill a fantasy QB2. Fortunately, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are both approaching full health which will be a big boost to Tannehill, and a nondescript matchup with the middling Colts defense means he can be considered a streaming option in Week 8 if you're working the wire for QBs or have someone on bye.
Week 7 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Ryan Tannehill's passing stats continued a disappointing downward trend in Week 6, with Tannehill registering 216 scoreless yards and an interception against a stout Buffalo defense. Luckily for those starting Tannehill, he did manage to sneak in a rushing score to avoid a complete dud. Tannehill appears to be suffering from the loss of Arthur Smith as his offensive coordinator and the plethora of injuries that have plagued the offensive skill players in Tennessee.
Through six weeks, Tannehill is posting meager numbers such as 244.5 passing yards per game, 7.3 yards per pass attempt, and a 6:4 TD: INT ratio. In fantasy, those numbers render him a streaming option at best in single QB leagues. Week 7 brings a matchup with a Chiefs team that boasts a high-powered offense and terrible defense. Tannehill has struggled immensely this season, but he could manage one of his better performances this week out of necessity with Patrick Mahomes in town.
Week 6 vs. Buffalo Bills
Ryan Tannehill's tough 2021 continued in Week 5 when the Titans rode Derrick Henry to the promised land, resulting in only 22 pass attempts and 197 yards through the air. A.J. Brown returned in Week 5, but he and Tannehill couldn't connect even in a plush matchup with the Jaguars. It looks like there is a good chance Julio Jones returns this week, something that can only help Tannehill and could entice the Titans' coaching staff to throw the ball more. Unfortunately, that return coincides with a difficult matchup against a strong Buffalo defense. Tannehill will need to pick things up to turn in a strong fantasy performance this week, and he is more of a QB2 than the QB1 he has traditionally been in Tennessee.
Week 5 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Ryan Tannehill has yet to turn in a QB1 performance this season, in part due to the significant injuries suffered by his two top pass catchers. Through four weeks, Tannehill is averaging a middling 17 fantasy points per game and only seven yards per attempt, a number well below his usual rate since becoming the starter in Tennessee. This week Tannehill gets a date with the woeful Jaguars, a defense that the Titans should be able to move the ball on with regularity. Practice reports are suggesting that A.J. Brown will return this week, which would be a massive boost to Tannehill's fantasy outlook. That being said, he will still be without Julio Jones, and Tannehill wasn't exactly lighting up the box score even when his weapons were healthy. Until we see some improved results on the field, Tannehill is probably best thought of as a high-end QB2 for the time being.
Week 4 at NY Jets
Ryan Tannehill was his usual efficient self in Week 3, throwing for 197 yards and three touchdowns on only 27 pass attempts as Derrick Henry did most of the work trampling the Colts. Unfortunately, he mixed in two interceptions as well, but the Titans offense has been picking it up since a lackluster Week 1 and Tannehill has benefited. That being said, the Titans are now dealing with injuries to both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, two playmakers whose absences would undoubtedly be felt in Tannehill's box score. Look for the Titans to lean on Henry again when they face off with the lowly Jets on Sunday, meaning Tannehill is at real risk of seeing limited passing volume. Even so, you have to start him in season-long leagues given the plush matchup as he will carry a ton of touchdown upside in a game the Titans should win handily. Tannehill looks more like a borderline QB1/2 this week than the QB1 we're used to in light of the projected game script in New York.
Week 3 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Ryan Tannehill's Week 2 box score is a bit misleading as he was robbed of a touchdown to Julio Jones on a questionable replay review and A.J. Brown dropped multiple balls that should have gone for chunk gains. That being said, a single touchdown through two weeks is not what Tannehill drafters expected heading into the season. Week 2 was a massive improvement for the Titans from a protection standpoint, which bodes well for Tannehill moving forward. Now Tannehill and the Titans will host a Colts defense that has given up big games to both Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford so far this year. While early results have been disappointing, Tannehill has faced some odd circumstances and only looking at his box scores fails to tell the entire story of his season to this point. It is entirely possible we will look back on Week 1 & 2 as the worst games of Tannehill's season. Keep the faith and give him another shot as your QB1 this week in an enticing matchup.
Week 2 @ Seattle Seahawks
Ryan Tannehill's Week 1 was marred by poor offensive line play that had him under constant pressure from a relentless Arizona pass rush. The result of the Titans' deficiencies in the trenches was a complete offensive breakdown. Tannehill only managed a single touchdown to go along with 212 passing yards and an interception. Luckily, he salvaged his fantasy day by plunging in for a short rushing touchdown. If the Titans' protection issues persist, a rushing touchdown won't always be there to bail out Tannehill's fantasy managers, and a difficult road matchup looms with a Seahawks defensive line that impressed in their season opener. That being said, the Seattle secondary is nothing special and Tannehill has some upside this week if the Titans can work out their issues and keep pace with Russell Wilson and Co. Give Tannehill another shot as your QB1 this week and see if Tennessee can produce an improved offensive performance.
Week 1 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Ryan Tannehill enters Week 1 armed with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones out wide and Derrick Henry in the backfield, setting the stage for continued offensive success since breaking out as Tennessee's starter in 2019. That success should start right away in Week 1 when the Titans host the Arizona Cardinals, a team whose secondary projects to get burned by any competent passing attack. Tannehill lost two of his favorites weapons (Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith) in free agency, but the addition of Jones should overshadow those losses as he has more talent than either of those players, even at an advanced age. The betting total for Sunday's game is 52, suggesting the poor defensive play of both teams should turn this game into a fast-paced shootout. Lock Tannehill into lineups as a solid QB1 in Week 1 given the plethora of weapons at his disposal and soft defensive matchup.
2021 Fantasy Upside
Ryan Tannehill's renaissance in Tennessee continued in 2020 when he finished ninth in fantasy points per game (21.8) at the quarterback position with a 33:7 TD:INT ratio and seven rushing touchdowns. Tannehill's calling card was again efficient passing on limited volume. Tannehill finished 18th in pass attempts and 15th in passing yards in 2020, but notched top-ten finishes in yards per attempt (7.9), fantasy points per dropback (0.64), completed air yards (143.8 per game), and passing touchdowns. While the Titans will always be a run-heavy offense with Derrick Henry in the backfield, Tannehill has shown the ability to make the most of his limited attempts by establishing a downfield rapport with A.J. Brown and continuing to demonstrate efficiency throwing touchdowns in the red zone. Now Tannehill gets to add Julio Jones, one of the more efficient receivers of the last decade, to his arsenal. While it will be difficult for Tannehill to maintain his excellent efficiency numbers in the long-term, Jones is the most talented second option the passer has ever had and the Titans could pass at a higher rate this season if their defense continues to struggle. Tannehill fits firmly in the tier of low-end QB1s and is a great option for those who continue to employ the late round QB strategy.
2021 Fantasy Downside
It is highly unlikely Tannehill will rush for another seven touchdowns in 2021, and the levels of passing efficiency he has shown the last two seasons is going to be difficult to maintain for another whole season. If Tannehill sees any slip in his passing efficiency, his fantasy production will surely suffer as he will likely never see massive passing volume on a run-committed team with Henry in the backfield. And while the top of Tennessee's pass-catching depth chart is loaded, an injury to Brown or Jones would result in things looking very shallow in terms of weaponry for Tannehill. While he is definitely draftable in single-QB leagues, Tannehill's profile is more fragile than some of the other passers being drafted in the same range.
2021 Bottom Line
Tannehill projects as a solid low-end QB1 for fantasy managers who do not want to take the plunge early on quarterback. His lack of dynamic dual-threat ability caps his ceiling, but his track record of efficient passing shows he can keep your team in contention at the QB spot with chunk gains and touchdowns. If you stock up at the other positions early in your draft, you could do much worse than snagging Tannehill around the 9th round.
Week 17 at Houston Texans
The Titans offense struggled in the Green Bay snow last Sunday night, with Ryan Tannehill throwing for only 121 yards and a score. Fantasy owners were saved from a complete disaster as he also ran for 55 yards, including a 45-yard TD. In the overtime win over the Texans in October Tannehill threw for 366 yards and four TDs, so expect a bounce back performance.
