Week 14 vs. New England Patriots
The Dolphins host the Patriots, a situation Miami has surprised in the past, but not worth banking on in the fantasy playoffs. The Dolphins have a bottom six implied team total this week of fewer than 20 points. New England ranks just below league average in aFPA to QBs. Despite that, the low implied output and this offense ranking near the bottom of the league in total offense, has us nowhere near starting Tannehill in 1QB leagues.
Week 13 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills rank first in aFPA to QBs. Not ideal for Ryan Tannehill. In his six starts, he's also failed to post 18 fantasy points in five of them, the threshold currently to be QB14 in fantasy football. He also only attempted 25 passes in his first game back from injury last week. Earlier this season, he didn't reach 30 pass attempts in all but one of his games. None of this equals a player you should be starting in Week 13.
Week 12 at Indianapolis Colts
The Dolphins went from 10-point underdogs to 7.5-point underdogs with the news that Ryan Tannehill would make his return, but Miami's implied team total of 21.75 points is still less than ideal. The Colts are bottom five in the league in aFPA to QBs but are allowing less than 16 FP/G at home to opposing QBs. Plus, Ryan Tannehill has only eclipsed 18 fantasy points in one game this season. Tannehill is not a good streaming option in Week 12.
Week 6 vs. Chicago Bears
The Dolphins are 31st in the NFL in plays per game and face the Bears strong defense in Week 6 with an implied team total of less than 20 points. Not good. Tannehill has one touchdown and three interceptions in his last two games, with the Bears holding QBs to less than ten fantasy points per game over that span. Tannehill belongs nowhere near fantasy lineups in Week 6.
Week 5 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Dolphins had the most predictable of blowout losses in Week 4, but before then, Ryan Tannehill three consecutive weeks with multiple touchdowns. But based on this season's through the roof fantasy QB production, Tannehill only has one QB1 week out of four. Even in a plus match-up against the Bengals (25th in aFPA to QBs), Tannehill is a risky Week 5 play.
Week 4 at Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill is a sneaky streaming option for Week 4. It's been a while, but in his last three games against the Patriots, Tannehill has averaged 346 yards with multiple touchdowns in two of those three games. Tannehill also has multiple scores in each game this year. With the Patriots ranked only 24th in aFPA to QBs and an above-average total of 48.5 points, there are many reasons to back Tannehill if in need of a QB in Week 4.
Week 3 vs. Oakland Raiders
Ryan Tannehill is a streaming QB option this week. Wait, wait, wait! Don't stop reading yet. Let us explain. The Raiders have the dreaded cross-country, early eastern time zone kickoff Sunday in Miami. Tannehill has tossed two touchdowns in each of his first two games and added 44 yards rushing against the Jets in Week 2. He's averaging 15.4 points per game the first two weeks with top-20 finishes in both weeks. Despite not having DeVante Parker, Tannehill has connected with eight different pass-catchers at a 72.5 percent completion rate. Miami has a respectable 24-point implied team total in this game. Believe us now?
Week 2 at New York Jets
The Jets were 31st in aFPA to QBs last year, but this looked like a much stronger defense in Week 1, causing Matthew Stafford to turn it over constantly. Going way back to 2016, Tannehill had less than 10 points against the Jets, his last game against this division rival. He also only scored 13.6 fantasy points last week. Fade Tannehill as a Week 2 starter.
Week 1 vs. Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill tore his ACL in back-to-back seasons but finally returns this week against the Titans. However, with Jarvis Landry gone, this is a new look offense around Tannehill. The Dolphins have a bottom half of the league implied team total in Vegas this week of just 21.75 points. Tannehill should not be a starting lineup consideration in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Ryan Tannehill returns from re-tearing his ACL in training camp last season as a sleeper option in 2QB leagues. In an era where QB streaming has been a successful strategy, Tannehill's early season schedule should not be ignored. His first five matchups are against defenses ranked in the bottom half of the league last season in aFPA versus QBs. Plus, three of those matchups are against the three worst defenses in aFPA vs. QBs. He could be a viable streaming option.
Fantasy Downside
Tannehill's last healthy season came in 2016, where he averaged less than 15 fantasy points per game. That ranked 24th on a per game basis. That's far from reliable fantasy production. Tannehill also lost his most reliable target in Jarvis Landry, and the Dolphins' offensive line is still a mess. Plus, there's the added question of whether his knee will hold up after two straight seasons of tearing his ACL.
2018 Bottom Line
Tannehill is not a consideration in 1QB leagues and is only a depth add in 2QB leagues. However, that early season schedule is quite attractive for those looking to stream the position.
