Week 1 vs. New York Giants
Ryan Tannehill kicks off 2022 with a home date against the Giants, a defense that finished fifth fewest in adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs in 2021. Aside from a matchup against a stout defense, Tannehill will also play his first regular season game with the Titans' revamped pass catching core, one that lacks the established playmakers of years past. Look for the Tennessee coaching staff to lean heavily on Derrick Henry and the ground game in Week 1, meaning Tannehill will have to be highly efficient if he is to return numbers worthy of consideration in fantasy leagues. It will be interesting to see how Tannehill gels with Robert Woods, Treylon Burks, and the other weapons in Tennessee, but at least for now the uncertainty surrounding the Titans' passing game renders him a middling QB2 for fantasy players.
2022 Fantasy Upside
After a couple strong seasons in Tennessee where he was bolstered by an exceptionally efficient red zone offense, Ryan Tannehill took a step back in 2021. Tannehill posted mediocre finishes in passing yards (16th in the NFL), air yards (18th), yards per attempt (19th), passing touchdowns (16th), and fantasy points per game (14th). The good news for Tannehill is that early reports indicate rookie Malik Willis is no threat to his starting spot under center. Investing in Tannehill for fantasy purposes requires faith that he will return to his 2019-2020 form, when he posted 9.6 and 7.9 yards per attempt respectively, and managed highly efficient touchdown rates of 7.7% and 6.9%. Given that the Titans will again run their offense through Derrick Henry, Tannehill's fantasy production relies intensely on efficiency rather than volume. Tannehill has demonstrated the ability to be a hyper-efficient NFL QB in the past, and a return to those numbers in 2022 would put him back on the fantasy radar as a streaming option in single-QB formats.
2022 Fantasy Downside
There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of Tannehill for fantasy purposes heading into the 2022 season. To start, Tannehill's exceptional efficiency during 2019 and 2020 is not likely to be repeated this year, as we learned last season. It is exceedingly difficult to sustain the production Tannehill managed on such limited volume. The Titans will always be a run-first team with Mike Vrabel in charge and Derrick Henry in the backfield, meaning Tannehill has virtually no path to increased volume unless the Titans are perpetually trailing. The second reason to be concerned about Tannehill is his supporting cast. Henry is back, but A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are both gone, leaving Tannehill's top receiving options as rookie Treylon Burks and Robert Woods, a 30-year-old veteran coming off an ACL tear. Tannehill will have trouble replicating his passing numbers on deep throws with a diminished group of wideouts in 2022.
2022 Bottom Line
Tannehill has demonstrated the ability to be a useful fantasy QB in the past, but there are a number of concerns for him heading into 2022 that make a QB1 finish unlikely. In the end, Tannehill will likely end up in the tier of middling QB2s and only have consistent relevance in leagues that utilize multiple QBs.
Week 17 vs. Miami Dolphins
It's safe to say Ryan Tannehill was happy to get downfield dominator A.J. Brown back in Week 16. Tannehill peppered Brown with 16 targets, leading to 209 yards through the air with a score and no picks for the QB. Unfortunately, that type of line appears to be Tannehill's ceiling in this year's Titan offense. Tannehill's 221 passing yards per game this season is only slightly off his normal pace, but his fantasy issues have come in the touchdown department, where he is closing in on the last two games of the season having only thrown 15 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. The loss of Arthur Smith and the plethora of injuries in the Tennessee offense have sapped the extreme efficiency the unit enjoyed the past few years. The Dolphins are a tough matchup for opposing offenses, meaning Tannehill is merely a QB2 again this week, although having Brown back in the lineup certainly gives him a slight boost.
Week 16 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Ryan Tannehill scored a rushing touchdown in Week 15 and still couldn't turn in a decent fantasy line, as he rounded out his box score with 153 scoreless passing yards, an interception, and a lost fumble. Tannehill has not been a QB1 all season and that won't change in Week 16 when the Titans host the 49ers and their talented defense. Tannehill's QB2 hopes hinge on the potential return of star wideout A.J. Brown. Were Brown to miss Thursday's game, Tannehill would head into a difficult matchup without any proven weapons in the passing game, and he would be difficult to rely on even in two-QB leagues. Check the injury reports for Brown's status Wednesday if you're rostering Tannehill in a deep league, but he should be on waivers in the majority of fantasy leagues by this point.
Week 15 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Ryan Tannehill had another forgettable day through the air in Week 14 with 191 scoreless yards on 31 pass attempts. He did manage to salvage his box score with another rushing touchdown. something that has propped up Tannehill's fantasy scores all season. The only issue with that is the Titans' current style of play essentially necessitates a rushing score for Tannehill to produce startable numbers in fantasy. The Titans continue to run the ball even in the absence of Derrick Henry as their aerial weapons have been devastated by injuries and inconsistency. Even with Julio Jones back in the fold, Tannehill is nothing more than a QB2 this week against the Steelers.
Week 14 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ryan Tannehill continues to post completely forgettable numbers in Tennessee as the leader of an offense ravaged by injuries and inconsistency. Tannehill failed to clear 100 yards passing in his last game against New England and hasn't thrown multiple touchdowns since Week 8. Tannehill will again be without A.J. Brown this week against Jacksonville, but on the bright side, he should get Julio Jones back from his extended absence. Tannehill is a risky fantasy play given his performance to date this season, but he has streaming viability simply based off matchup against the putrid Jacksonville defense. Most fantasy managers will be able to find better options, but Tannehill is workable as a spot starter in Week 14 if you're desperate at QB.
Week 12 at New England Patriots
Ryan Tannehill threw for massive volume in Week 11 when he completed 35 of 52 passes for 325 yards and a touchdown, but his fantasy day was ruined by an ugly four interceptions against the lowly Texans defense. Tannehill simply cannot put together a complete performance this season no matter the opponent or game script. To be fair, he was missing both Julio Jones and A.J. Brown for most of last week's game, but Tannehill has struggled even with those weapons in the lineup. Now he has to travel to New England to face off with Bill Belichick's scorching hot Patriots and their rock-solid defense. Tannehill should have the opportunity to throw for decent volume again this week, but the tough matchup and his performance to date this season prevent him from consideration as anything more than a QB2 in Week 12.
Week 11 vs. Houston Texans
Ryan Tannehill had the type of performance that has become typical for him in 2021 in Week 10. He threw for 213 yards and a touchdown to go along with a rushing score on a QB sneak. Tannehill is never going to throw for massive volume or yardage totals in Tennessee's current offense, and likely won't need to against the lowly Texans in Week 11. The primary issue for Tannehill in fantasy is the drop in touchdown efficiency from previous seasons. The Titans are not throwing touchdowns anywhere near the rate they have done so in the past, and that spells trouble for Tannehill in fantasy. The Texans are a soft matchup but could be so bad they limit Tannehill's volume even further. He is a QB2 for Week 11 and most managers can likely find a better option in single-QB formats.
Week 10 vs. New Orleans Saints
The loss of Derrick Henry didn't have the positive fantasy impact on Ryan Tannehill fantasy managers were hoping for, at least not in Week 9. Tannehill still only threw the ball 27 times, completing 19 passes for 143 yards, a touchdown, and a pick. Tannehill did manage to sneak in for a rushing touchdown, an aspect of his game that has salvaged multiple fantasy days this season. Tannehill's arm simply has not been as integral a part of the Titans' offense this season, and the result has been tough on his fantasy box scores. Week 10 brings a home matchup with the Saints, who boast a tough front seven but can be beaten in the secondary. The Titans could very well open it up with Tannehill if the Saints stymie the run game, but his play to this point in the season inspires little confidence he will turn in a QB1 performance. Tannehill is best viewed as a low-end streaming option or QB2 in multi-QB leagues.
Week 9 at Los Angeles Rams
Ryan Tannehill's 2021 season has been pedestrian to this point (he's hovering around QB15 in most fantasy leagues), but it's unclear how relevant his past statistics will be to future performance with the Tennessee offensive philosophy turned on its head following a season-ending injury to workhorse RB Derrick Henry. The Titans will be forced to rely on Tannehill's passing more than ever before without Henry in the backfield, so he should be in line for a significant bump to his passing attempts per game, a number that currently sits at 32.75 and in the bottom third of the NFL. While it's unclear exactly how efficiently the Tennessee offense will be without Henry, Tannehill, A.J. Brown, and (hopefully) Julio Jones all look poised for heavy workloads as the Titans remain in playoff contention down the stretch. The Rams boast a tough defense and pose a difficult matchup on the road, but Tannehill looks like a borderline QB1 moving forward given the philosophical shifts that must take place on the offensive side of the ball in Tennessee.
