Week 1 vs Rams
Plenty of fantasy experts have Russell Wilson as the next best QB after Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. Obviously, Wilson has been effective in the run-first Seattle offense both passing the ball and being a ball carrier. Now, with Jimmy Graham an option in the passing game, the numbers should go up. But, let's see if Graham is the same offensive weapon in Seattle he was in New Orleans. For Week 1, Russell only ranks 9th among starting quarterbacks, which is due to playing a very good pass defense in St. Louis. He is a low-end QB1 for the opener, but still is a definitely starter in every fantasy format.
Fantasy Upside
Russell Wilson gives you the best of both worlds. He has become a pretty good passing quarterback and he already was a very good running quarterback. That really helped his fantasy value. And with the addition of Jimmy Graham, Wilson's numbers through the air should get better. Remember, the Seahawks have really not used their tight ends in the offensive scheme since Wilson has been there, but they should now, especially in the red zone. More yardage and more passing TDs are on the way.
Fantasy Downside
Even if Wilson becomes a better passer, the Seahawks still should be a run-first team. That's what has gotten them to two straight Super Bowls. As he matures, Wilson will also probably run a little less to protect himself, so those numbers could regress this season.
Bottom Line
The combination of the run and pass numbers will still be very strong which helps rank Wilson as the #3 QB overall in 4for4 rankings. With the addition of Graham and Wilson still improving as a passing QB, Wilson is poised for another good fantasy season. His ADP of 54 puts him at the top of the second tier of QBs (behind Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck) and taking him at that point in your draft is about right.
Week 20: Wilson vs Packers
Russell Wilson was his efficient self last week against Carolina: 268 yards passing, 3 TD passes, 0 picks. He is so good at home and that's where he will play this Sunday. It will be Wilson's second meeting with the Packers, but that was also Week 1 so a lot has changed. He threw for 191 yards and 2 TDs and zero picks.
The matchup this time is very neutral, as the Packers are 15th in aFPA to quarterbacks, but you still have to give an edge to Wilson playing at home and also take into account how comfortable he has been in the playoffs. Wilson is the best quarterback play of the championship games so start him over everyone else and expect more of the same quality fantasy numbers.
Week 19: Wilson vs Panthers
Russell Wilson is one of the more intriguing players this weekend. Where will Seattle go with their game plan? We have seen the Seahawks go back to what go them their first Super Bowl victory which gave Wilson some very average fantasy performances.
The good news for Seattle is they will be at home where they have had very good playoff success. The bad news is the Panthers are 5th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Wilson faced Carolina earlier this season throwing for 199 yards, a touchdown and interception. There are some pretty good quarterbacks still playing, but Wilson is a good choice to have on your roster this weekend. Expect some good fantasy numbers from him in excess of the first time he met Carolina. You'll be hoping for rushing yardage and hopefully a touchdown.
Week 17: Wilson vs Rams
Russell Wilson was outstanding against Arizona last Sunday. He threw for 339 yards, two touchdowns and ran for 88 yards and another score. He is playing his best football at the right time of the season and the Seahawks offense has been playing like it's 2013.
Wilson will face the Rams who are 13th in aFPA to quarterbacks. He threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting earlier this season. Don't expect the 'Hawks to take the foot of the gas this week as they are playing for seeding and the division title. Start Wilson as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback for Week 17.
Week 16: Wilson vs Cardinals
Russell Wilson's fantasy numbers continue to suffer as the Seahawks have gone back to what made them successful last season offensively. The conservative approach works, but Wilson only threw for 168 yards and a touchdown last week against the Niners. Wilson can help his fantasy teams out even when he struggles with the passing numbers by running the football consistently. He only had 27 yards last game, so overall it was a down week for Wilson.
This week, Wilson faces division-rival Arizona who is 9th in aFPA to quarterbacks. He did have a good outing the first time they met with 211 yards passing, one touchdown throw and zero INTs. He also rushed for 73 yards. The tough matchup and conservative offense put Wilson as a borderline starter for Week 16. Look at your options and if you don't have another good one, Wilson shouldn't kill you and always has a decent shot at a rushing touchdown.
Week 15: Wilson vs 49ers
Russell Wilson got out of character last week throwing 37 passes, but it worked as Seattle looks very good right now on both sides of the ball. The 'Hawks QB threw two touchdowns and ran for another plus 263 yards passing which is the highest since Seattle has gone back to their more conservative offense.
We expect them to go back to that type of game plan against division-rival San Francisco. The Niners are 6th in aFPA to quarterbacks and even with the disappointing season, San Francisco should be up for this one. Expect a defensive battle which will limit Wilson's fantasy numbers. He only rates a high-end QB2 for Week 15 so most likely should be on your bench.
Week 14: Wilson vs Eagles
Russell Wilson has played back-to-back games that remind of us of the 2013 Russell Wilson. Efficient. Controlled. But not fantasy friendly. Two touchdowns in two weeks isn't great but zero interception helps a little bit. In both games, he also threw 23 passes.
This week could be a little more wide open just because of the opponent - Philadelphia. The Seahawks should get more snaps and more opportunities in the passing game. The Eagles rank 19th in aFPA to quarterbacks, so a slight advantage for Wilson.
Start him in all leagues and formats for Week 14. Expect Wilson to give you solid QB1 numbers in Philly.
Week 13: Wilson vs 49ers
Russell Wilson looked like the last year's Russell Wilson, which is not great for fantasy owners. The conservative offense limited him to 22 pass attempts and only one touchdown. The Seahawks won the game which is really the goal. Luckily for Wilson owners, he has been averaging nearly sixty yards per game rushing.
The Niners have also given Wilson fits in their previous four meetings. He has only completed 53% of his passes with six touchdowns and four INTs. San Francisco is No. 1 in aFPA to quarterbacks this season so we expect Wilson to struggle statistically. He only ranks a high-end QB2 this week so keep him on the bench against the 49ers.
Week 12: Wilson vs Cardinals
Russell Wilson is coming off a decent outing against a good Chiefs defense in which he threw two touchdowns and also rushed for 71 yards. The passing yardage was under 200 yards for the fourth straight game although the attempts were good at 32. Just not a lot of plays down field for the 'Hawks QB.
Wilson will face first place Arizona on Sunday and will need a good performance against a Cardinals defense that is ranked 7th in aFPA to quarterbacks. It's not a great matchup for Wilson and the Seahawks will continue to rely on the run game first with Wilson dinking and dunking. His rushing numbers are good enough to rank him as a high-end QB2 this week, but this isn't a strong play for Week 12.
