Week 4 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Just when we thought maybe Russell Wilson might have been regressing, he looks like the quarterback of the past two seasons. He threw for 373 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. This is a typical fantasy win for Wilson owners, even though the Seahawks lost. It was good to see Seattle get the passing game going again.
It's another good matchup this week for Wilson at home against the Colts, who are 22nd in aFPA to quarterbacks this season. Star WR Doug Baldwin isn't 100% but that shouldn't be much of a factor.
Expect Wilson to have another big game this Sunday. The first two weeks were tough matchups and last week we got to see the Seattle passing game that has been one of the better units the past couple seasons. Start Wilson as a top-five fantasy QB.
Week 3 at Tennessee Titans
There are some concerns about Russell Wilson's fantasy status after the first two weeks of the season. His numbers have been more like his first several seasons in the league rather than the last two when he became a top 5 fantasy quarterback. Last week, he ran the ball 12 times which has not been part of his strength the last couple seasons. His team also only put up 12 points at home which is another red flag.
Wilson will face Tennessee who is last in aFPA to quarterbacks. So despite the road game, it's a very good matchup for Wilson and might help him get out of his mini slump.
Start Wilson for Week 3, but only as a low-end QB1 against the Titans.
Week 2 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense struggled on the road in Green Bay. He only completed 52% of his passes for 158 yards and zero touchdowns. He did run for 40 yards but that came on only two carries. It just wasn't a great day for Wilson, but the Packers defense played well. Expect better results moving forward.
And that could happen as soon as Sunday when the Niners come to Seattle. Last season, Wilson did not light up San Francisco only throwing for two touchdowns in the two meetings. The 49ers pass defense is average at this point, but Wilson seems to rev things up at home. Expect the Seahawks to come out with a chip on their shoulder on offense and try to make people forget last week's performance.
Start Wilson in all leagues and formats. He should have a big day and ranks as a top 5 QB for Week 2.
Week 1 at Green Bay Packers
After being touted as a good running quarterback and game manager for his first three seasons, Russell Wilson has emerged as one of the best real-life and fantasy quarterbacks. Back-to-back 4,000+ passing yard seasons has put his name up there with other big-time quarterbacks in the league.
Wilson did struggle at times last year because of an injury, but he is 100% healthy heading into the opener against Green Bay. The Packers were 17th in aFPA to quarterbacks in 2016, so Wilson should have opportunities.
Even though Wilson struggled a little bit on the road last season, we expect a good performance in Green Bay on Sunday. Start him as a top-five quarterback and expect to see him among the top of the fantasy quarterback scoring leaders all season long.
Fantasy Upside
Russell Wilson threw for a career-high 4,219 yards in 2016, as the Seahawks passing game has progressed since Wilson took over at quarterback. He has also established himself as one of the premier big-play QBs in the NFL. Usually, when he needs to make one, he does. Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham, and Tyler Lockett have become a formidable receiving force, which is part of the reason for the increase in passing yards every year Wilson has been in the league.
Fantasy Downside
Despite the career-high in passing yards, it was considered a down year for Wilson. His passing touchdown total dropped from 34 to 21 and his interceptions rose from eight to 11. He also had a career-rushing low with only 259 yards. One reason for the drop-off, especially in the rushing yardage was the fact Wilson got banged up in September and never seemed 100 percent. After finishing as a top-5 fantasy QB the previous two seasons, he was the fantasy QB10 in 2016.
2017 Bottom Line
The early season injuries give an indication Wilson is due for a bounce back season. Even towards the end of last season, he starting running more, averaging 28.4 rushing yards per game over his last seven starts. Wilson has an ADP of 60 and has been the sixth quarterback off the board, which is where he belongs. Wilson will not be a top-tier quarterback but will be right on the outside as a solid QB1.
Divisional Round at Atlanta
It was a very efficient playoff game for Russell Wilson last week, as he completed 77% of his passes for 224 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Wilson has been a very good playoff QB throughout his career, which carries some weight this week heading into Atlanta.
In the first meeting between this two teams earlier this season, Wilson threw for 270 yards with zero TDs and zero INTs. Even with the pedigree, it won't be an easy matchup, and Wilson rates in the second tier of the eight QBs who will start this weekend. There are better options at quarterback this weekend.
Wild Card Round vs Detroit
Russell Wilson ended the season on a high note. He completed 65% of his passes over the past three games while averaging 279 yards per game and throwing 8 touchdowns with only one interception. With the playoffs starting, Wilson has proven he can handle these type of games with his two Super Bowl runs. He did not face Detroit this season but last year threw for 287 yards and a touchdown.
The Lions have been pretty good this season against quarterbacks ranked 6th in aFPA. Even with the favorable matchup for Detroit, we like Wilson at home in the postseason. He isn't the top ranked QB for the Wild Card round but he is someone that should be in your lineup as a key contributor.
Week 16 vs Cardinals
Russell Wilson threw for three touchdowns in a game for the third time this season last week. His passing yardage total (229) was below his season average, but the performance was better than recent weeks. Wilson's overall TD to INT numbers have been weak all season (16-11).
Wilson faces division-rival Arizona, who is 12th in aFPA to quarterbacks. In the first meeting this season, he threw for 225 yards, but zero touchdowns. He did have a three-touchdown game in the regular season finale last year against the Cards.
Wilson has been very shaky the second half of the season, and that makes us hesitate to rate him any higher than high-end QB2. Keep him on the bench for Week 16.
Week 15 vs Los Angeles
Five interceptions is going to make any fantasy owner cringe, and I am sure coach Pete Carroll felt the same way Sunday. Russell Wilson has now thrown a total five INTs in his first 13 games. More worrisome for Seattle is Wilson has thrown eight interceptions in the past three games. It's a reversal of the second half of last season where Wilson was the best fantasy quarterback in the NFL.
Wilson will face the Rams this week, who are 20th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Back in Week 2, Wilson threw for 254 yards and zero interceptions, but had no touchdowns either. Even with Wilson playing poorly, we expect him to bounce back against a team in disarray (firing Jeff Fisher). Start him as a solid QB1 Thursday.
Week 14 at Green Bay
Russell Wilson had an average game last week against Carolina. He threw for 277 yards, one touchdown and one INT. After back-to-back very effective games, Wilson has slowed down the last three, and now you have to wonder what's going on.
He will face the Packers in Week 14 who are 16th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Last time he faced them in 2015, he had mixed results with 206 passing yards, two touchdown passes and an INT. Will Wilson bounce back this week to put up some monster numbers? We think so. Start him in all leagues and formats as a QB1.
