Week 8 at Detroit Lions
Coming off the bye week, Russell Wilson's overall numbers are down this season, but he still has been efficient. In his last two games before the bye, he threw six touchdowns and only one interception. The biggest issue has been his offensive line and protection, but it has been better in recent weeks.
Wilson will face a Lions defense that is 19th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Even with a favorable matchup and coming off the bye, Wilson only rates a QB2 for Week 8 as the overall numbers still haven't been good enough.
Week 6 at Oakland Raiders
Russell Wilson has thrown for less than 200 yards the last three games. However, he did throw three touchdowns last week against the Rams. Wilson has actually thrown for at least two touchdowns in four of the five games. He hasn't had an interception since Week 2.
Wilson will face the Raiders who are 22nd in aFPA to quarterbacks. The protection for him has been key as he has been sacked 18 times. It has limited the plays downfield. Even with Doug Baldwin back healthy, Wilson is still only a QB2 option for Week 6.
Week 5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Russell Wilson might be the most disappointing fantasy quarterback through the first quarter of the season. In 2017, he was consistently rated a QB1 and most of the time in the top 5. Last week, he failed to produce a touchdown for the first time since Week 1 last season, and his passing yardage was below 200 for the second straight week.
It won't get any easier in Week 5 when the Rams come to town. Los Angeles is ranked 6th in aFPA to quarterbacks. WIlson has failed to throw for over 200 yards the last two games versus the Rams and has one touchdown in each of them. Keep him on the bench as he only rates a low-end QB2 this week.
Week 4 at Arizona Cardinals
Russell Wilson only threw 26 passes last Sunday which was reminiscent of his first couple of years in the league. However, he did throw two touchdowns and for the first time this season he did not throw an interception. The sacks were reduced to two (after 6 in each of the first two games), so the Seahawks might have been more conservative last week against Dallas.
Wilson will face division rival Arizona, who is ranked eighth in aFPA to quarterbacks this season. It's interesting because Wilson has been below his career averages in passing yards and completion percentage, but he has thrown 21 touchdowns against the Cardinals in 12 career games—more than any other team Wilson has faced. He also has thrown only four picks in those games.
We like Wilson this week as Seattle seems to have figured things out for him and also found some semblance of a running game to take pressure off Wilson. Start him as a low-end QB1 for Week 4.
Week 3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Russell Wilson was running for his life last Monday and he has now been sacked 12 times in two games. His overall numbers have been affected by this as he has averaged 262 passing yards and has thrown five touchdowns and three interceptions. He has fumbled the ball four times (only lost one) and just doesn't look comfortable.
Wilson will face a Dallas defense this week that is ranked 15th in aFPA to quarterbacks, however, the Cowboys' pass rush is expected to give Wilson trouble. There is no doubt Wilson is capable of putting up similar numbers to what he has done the past couple of seasons, however, without WR Doug Baldwin and a leaky offensive line, Wilson's fantasy standing has taken a hit.
For the second straight week, Wilson ranks a high-end QB2 so he probably is better off on the bench for Week 3. Keep an eye on the offensive line—if it improves it will elevate Wilson's ranking.
Week 2 at Chicago Bears
It was a so-so debut for Russell Wilson in 2018. Although he did throw three touchdown passes and 298 yards, he only completed 58 percent of his passes and also threw two interceptions. Wilson also lost his best receiver Doug Baldwin, so there is now one less weapon for him.
He will face a tough Week 2 opponent in Chicago. The Bears pass defense is very good and Wilson will face similar pressure as he did in Week 1, when Denver sacked him six times. Also, expect better running numbers for Wilson, who carried the ball only twice in Week 1.
We do not like the matchup on the road for Wilson this Sunday. In fact, it is rare we will tell you not to start him, but with the loss of Baldwin, this might be the week to keep him on the bench as a high-end QB2.
Week 1 at Denver Broncos
A lot of people like Russell Wilson as a top-five quarterback in 2018. Wilson has evolved into a very good NFL quarterback with numbers to back up that claim. He lost some offensive weapons from last season, but expect him to find some new ones.
It won't be easy in Week 1 as the Seahawks head into Denver where the Broncos pass defense is a pretty good one. Wilson should be able to put up decent numbers, just don't expect a top-five fantasy performance. Wilson rates as a low-end QB1 for Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Russell Wilson was a fantasy stud in 2017, leading the NFL in touchdown passes with 34 (tying his career-high) and he also threw a career-high 553 passes. The Seahawks are all in with Wilson and the passing game. Wilson was also the second-ranked quarterback in rushing yards last season and that total (586) was the second-highest of his career. Wilson is entering his prime at age 29 and will continue to put up big numbers this season.
Fantasy Downside
Sometimes it seemed Wilson had to carry the offense too much. This is a concern and we might have seen some fatigue at times. Lack of a running game was also an issue which put pressure on Wilson. It could struggle again. His completion percentage wasn't bad in 2017, but it was the lowest of his career. Tight end is a concern as Ed Dickson is the No. 1 option going into training camp.
2018 Bottom Line
4for4 was right on with Wilson in 2017, and he is projected to be the third quarterback taken this season (after Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson). The question is when to take him. Unless your league has some crazy rules that favor quarterbacks, the first one shouldn't go until the third round. Wilson has an ADP of 50, but if you really want him, you probably have to grab him in the third or fourth round. He will be worth it as far as filling your quarterback position, so we can't say don't take him too early.
Week 17 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Russell Wilson had been a fantasy stud until the past two weeks. The ironic part is he threw for only 93 yards but two touchdowns and the Seahawks won. The good news is he is capable of going back to his MVP-type numbers at anytime.
Wilson will face the Cardinals who are 8th in aFPA to quarterbacks. In the first meeting this season, he threw for 238 yards and two touchdowns. The one positive for Wilson this week is he is one of the few high-end quarterbacks actually playing for something. That puts him as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback for Week 17.
Week 16 at Dallas Cowboys
We will just call last week's Seattle performance a bump in the road as the Seahawks were manhandled by the Rams. Russell Wilson completed only 47% of his passes for a season-low 142 yards passing. He did throw 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions which could be seen as positives, but not compared to what he had been doing this season.
Wilson will face the Cowboys this week, who are ranked 12th in aFPA to quarterbacks. We expect a bounce back game for the Seahawks offense. Wilson has been too good all season for a repeat of last week's debacle. Start him as a top-five fantasy quarterback for Week 16.
