Week 14 at Seattle Seahawks
Robert Woods' 2019 fantasy season has really turned a corner since the Rams' Week 9 bye. From Week 1 through Week 8, Woods was the WR24 overall, and if you remove his only top-12 finish in that timeframe (WR4 in Week 4), he was the WR41. From Week 10 through 13, Woods has been the fantasy WR15 despite missing the Rams' Week 11 game, and his touch rate of 14.4% over his past three games is double the next-highest rate among Rams wide receivers. He's heating up at just the right time.
Woods should continue rolling with a Week 14 matchup with the Seahawks on tap, a defense whose aFPA to wide receivers ranks 18th. Woods' offensive alignment varies enough to pit him against multiple members of an opposing secondary, and Seahawks' anemic pass rush should give Woods time to find holes in Seattle's zone-heavy defense. Woods' low aDOT of 8.4 yards along with his excellent yards-after-the-catch numbers should continue to make him a trusted target for Jared Goff. He's a safe start as a WR2 this week.
Week 13 at Arizona Cardinals
Robert Woods missed Week 11 for undisclosed personal reasons, but he has the full support of the Rams organization. Over the past two games in which he started, Woods has emerged as Jared Goff's preferred option. He drew 20 targets between Weeks 10 and 12, and finished as a WR2 for both weeks.
Woods now matches up with an Arizona secondary in Week 13 who's aFPA to wide receivers is the seventh-highest. The only potential roadblock for Woods' production this week is that all three of the Rams' primary wide receivers will start, and he could see a slight reduction in his target volume with Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp healthy. Woods is still a solid start as a mid-range WR2 this week with upside should he continue his streak of target volume.
Week 12 vs Baltimore Ravens
Robert Woods was unexpectedly inactive in Week 11 due to an unreported personal issue, one week after his second-best performance of the season. It's unknown whether Woods will return to play against Baltimore, but his fantasy no-show dropped him from the WR18 overall to the WR34.
Should Woods return for Monday night's Week 12 matchup, he could see plenty of targets, as his low aDOT lends itself to the kind of quick targets that are most useful against the blitz-happy ways of the Ravens defense. The Rams play on Monday night, so waiting on his status update could be difficult. Josh Reynold's availability in your league could make it possible, and if Woods does return, he's startable with WR3 expectations.
*UPDATE* - Woods returned to practice on Thursday, and while the question of whether he'll be active for the Monday night game has yet to be answered, his return increases the likelihood that he'll suit up against the Ravens.
Week 11 vs Chicago Bears
Robert Woods turned a stout Week 10 challenge against the Steelers into a 95-yard WR2 performance on 11 targets. Woods was on the field for every offensive snap and had his best game since his 13-catch 164-yard outing in Week 4. Now the WR18 overall, Woods' Week 10 performance is encouraging for his rest-of-season prospects.
The Bears come to Los Angeles in Week 11, boasting a defense that's allowed the eighth-lowest aFPA to wide receivers. Woods projects to match up most often with cornerback Kyle Fuller, who's been dominant in seasons past, but who's had his share of struggles in coverage in 2019. With Brandin Cooks ruled out, Goff should rely on Woods and Kupp more heavily, making Woods a solid start as a WR3 with WR2 upside.
Week 10 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Robert Woods projected to have an advantageous matchup with the Bengals in Week 8 but was targeted just twice by Jared Goff, and the resulting two receptions for 36 yards were good for a WR62 weekly finish and a sour taste in fantasy owner's mouths. It's been an extremely disappointing season for the WR32 through Week 9, and it isn't just poor touchdown luck that's to blame. Woods has only finished a game with over 50 receiving yards three times in 2019, after crossing that mark in 14 of 16 games in 2018. Woods has maintained a dominant 94% snap share that leads all Rams wide receivers, making his subdued weekly performance even more befuddling.
Woods faces a Steelers defense in Week 10 that ranks among the bottom ten in aFPA to wide receivers, so it presents a potential post-bye bounce-back opportunity for him. Woods' aDOT has noticeably decreased from 11.3 yards in 2018 to 7.9 yards through eight games in 2019, while his 6.71 yards after the catch per reception is third-most among wide receivers. Just 10.5% of his targets have traveled 20-plus yards in the air, which has amounted to six total deep targets and one reception. Woods projects as a lackluster WR3 start against the Steelers barring significant post-bye offensive changes by the Rams.
Week 8 vs Cincinnati Bengals
Robert Woods has steadily maintained a heavy snap share in the Rams' offense and after two games outside of the top-36 weekly fantasy wide receivers, he ranked as the Week 7 WR24 with five receptions for 80 yards. Woods' target rate of 12.1% is second only to Cooper Kupp among Rams wide receivers, even if his fantasy WR23 overall standing is not what Woods' fantasy drafters were aiming for.
Woods has seen just three red-zone targets through seven weeks but is nonetheless a likely candidate for positive regression to the touchdown-scoring mean with zero scores so far in 2019. The Bengals' 32.2 aFPA to wide receivers is the 12th-lowest, but Woods should be able to take advantage of the cornerback matchups he'll see moving regularly between the slot and right side of the offensive formation. He should be a solid WR2 for Week 8.
Week 7 at Atlanta Falcons
Robert Woods was on the field for every single offensive snap for the Rams in Week 6. but a rushing touchdown early in the game was the only thing that salvaged his day from being a complete fantasy disaster. Woods saw just 4 targets on the day, and finished the game with zero receptions. The matchup against the 49ers was clearly an aberration for the Rams as a whole offensively, but while Woods had a 13-target Week 1 and a 15-target Week 4, he's also had had four games with single-digit targets and has yet to score a touchdown.
Los Angeles draws a favorable matchup against the Falcons for its receivers in Week 7, a defense that's allowed 45.9 aFPA to wide receivers, third-most. Woods will see frequent coverage from cornerback Ken Sheffield, and it's a challenge Woods is likely looking forward to. Provided the Rams' offensive line can take a step forward with their pass-blocking efficiency, Woods is a good bet to finish the week as a WR1.
Week 6 vs San Francisco 49ers
Robert Woods led all Rams receivers in snap share in Week 5, lining up for 93% of the offensive snaps. He was targeted nine times but only turned that volume into five receptions for 48 yards. He's currently the overall fantasy WR27, which is disappointing to most fantasy owners given his relatively high ADP in the offseason.
Woods splits his snaps evenly enough between the slot and outside right that he won't solely see coverage from Richard Sherman (who lines up primarily to the defensive left), but he may have a tough time breaking through in this matchup because he'll still spend a significant amount of time across from Sherman. Woods does continue to see high target volume, and his 8.5-yard aDOT should make him a fast outlet for Goff to avoid the 49ers' excellent pass rush. Woods is a good bet for WR2 numbers this week.
Week 5 at Seattle Seahawks
Woods has maintained the largest snap share among Rams wide receivers so far in 2019, but that didn't translate to fantasy value through the first three weeks. That changed in Week 4 when Goff targeted Woods 15 times, and Woods turned that volume into 13 catches for 164 yards. His 2-target Week 2 has skewed his full-season total, but he's still averaging 9.5 targets a game, and his fantasy WR23 overall standing is likely to continue to rise.
Woods may match up frequently with Seattle cornerback Shaquil Griffin in Week 5, but Woods lines up in multiple different spots frequently enough that he won't be locked into that matchup. With Cooper Kupp establishing himself as Goff's favorite target and Cooks continuing to fill the role of Los Angeles' deep threat, Woods may be the least likely candidate for extra defensive attention from safeties against the Seahawks. A week after finishing as the overall fantasy WR4, Woods is a solid WR2 with a high WR1 ceiling if this matchup proves to be the high-scoring affair that Vegas projects it to be.
Week 4 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Robert Woods is the lowest-ranking fantasy wide receiver among Los Angeles' top trio, currently the WR53 in 0.5 PPR leagues. Woods has retained the lead in snap share for Rams wide receivers at 96%, and his 11.2% target rate is a tick above Brandin Cooks' 11.1%.
Week 4 could be a turning point for Robert Woods against a Tampa Bay secondary that has struggled in coverage. Woods aligns all over the formation for the Rams but spends plenty of time in the slot, where he'll be defended by struggling slot cornerback M.J. Stewart. Woods has seen only one red-zone target on this young season after seeing 13 in 2018, so outside of a change in offensive philosophy in Los Angeles, his targets inside the opponent's 20 should regress positively to the mean. He's the riskiest start among Rams starting wide receivers, but he should return WR2 value.
