Fantasy Upside
The rising tide lifts all boats, and the arrival of Matthew Stafford benefits Robert Woods. Woods has finished as WR13 and WR17 the past two seasons and is set to finish as a fantasy WR2 in 2021. Woods’ role does not lend to massive games (two 100-plus receiving yard games in 2020) but his role as a runner sets him apart from the rest of the Rams receiver corps. He has double-digit touches and at least one rushing touchdown in each of the past three seasons. The potential of increased passing and rushing volume with the loss of Cam Akers and the opportunity for a deeper Average Depth of Target (aDOT) makes Woods an excellent addition to fantasy rosters.
Fantasy Downside
Woods is 29-years old and is officially out of his prime window. There is no guarantee he starts to decline in 2021, but it is very much in the realm of possibilities. He also did not separate himself from the rest of the receiving corps in terms of targets and air yards. Cooper Kupp had the same aDOT and market share of targets and air yards as Woods, and potential breakout candidate Van Jefferson led the team with an 11.3 aDOT in 2020. If Jefferson were to step into the recently departed Josh Reynolds’s deep-threat role, he could also match or come close to the same air yard share as Woods and Kupp. The arrival of Stafford could help Woods’ role as more than a catch-and-run receiver, but there is no guarantee.
Two of the Rams’ most difficult games are Weeks 12 and 17 with road games at Green Bay and Baltimore, respectively. Both defenses enter 2021 as top 10 defenses against wide receivers using 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Positional Defensive Rankings.
2021 Bottom Line
Woods is a WR2 with an opportunity to enter the WR1 conversation with an increased aDOT role now that Stafford is the Rams QB. His rushing floor also helps mitigate the lack of spike weeks and keeps him on the field.
Week 17 vs Arizona
Woods struggled last week against the Seattle Seahawks as he caught 4-of-9 targets for 48 yards and had two carries for one yard. The entire Rams offense struggled in this one and to make matters worse, Jared Goff will miss some time with a thumb injury. Even with Cooper Kupp expected to miss this week as he was placed on the COVID/reserved list, Woods won’t see the same amount of work with John Wolford starting in place of Goff. Woods will be a WR3 in this one.
Week 16 at Seattle
Woods had a strong game last week against the New York Jets as he caught 6-of-7 targets for 56 yards, one touchdown and tacked on a 40-yard carry. Woods did it all on offense against the Jets, and was the only viable offensive player for the Rams during the fantasy semifinals. Most importantly, Woods continues to out-target, out-touch, and out-produce Cooper Kupp. Woods has been as reliant as it comes in fantasy football as he enters the fantasy championships as the WR10 in PPR leagues, truly the quietest WR1 in 2020.
Week 16 brings the Seattle Seahawks who currently rank 18th in aFPA to WRs this season. Woods only caught five receptions for 33 yards against Seattle in Week 10, however, it should be more involved this time around. Count on Woods this week to produce WR1 numbers.
Week 15 vs New York Jets
Woods had a down performance last week against the New England Patriots as he caught 5-of-8 targets for 32 yards and tacked on one carry for -1 yard. The passing game took a back seat to the Cam Akers breakout, however, a strong New England secondary made it very difficult for Woods to get open.
Week 15 brings on the New York Jets who rank 31st in aFPA to WRs this season. Woods is in a prime spot for a bounce-back game and who better to do it against than the lowly Jets secondary. Woods should continue to see plenty of targets this week and can be counted on to produce high-end WR2 numbers in the semifinals of the fantasy playoffs.
Week 14 vs New England
No carries for Woods in his Week 13 contest against the Arizona Cardinals, however, he did post a solid stat line as he caught 10-of-11 targets for 85 yards. This marks only the second time this season Woods failed to log a carry, however, it makes three consecutive games for Woods where he’s seen double-digit targets. Woods’ 35 total targets over the past three games mark the most he’s seen over any three-game stretch this season and it appears he has reinforced his status as the top receiver in this Rams offense.
Woods will have a difficult matchup this week as the New England Patriots rank third in aFPA to WRs this season. The Patriots shut down Los Angeles Chargers WR Keenan Allen last week and limited him to a 5-48 stat line, so it is feasible that Woods might be the focus of this New England secondary. Fantasy managers should be cautious but there is some solace in knowing the Rams coaching staff has purposely tried to manufacture touches for Woods both in the passing and running game. Woods retains his WR2 status for this week.
Week 13 at Arizona
Woods had another strong game last week against San Francisco as he saw 12 targets for seven catches, 80 yards and had one carry for eight yards. In a game where Jared Goff and the Rams offense looked downright terrible, Woods was the lone bright spot. This game now gives Woods back-to-back games with 12 targets and makes all but one game in which he has had at least one rushing attempt.
Woods takes on the Arizona Cardinals this week who are currently ranked 22nd in aFPA to WRs this season. It has been clear all season that regardless of the offensive situation, Woods will always get opportunities to be productive. Keep as a high-end WR2 in this one.
Week 12 vs San Francisco
Woods had his best game of the season last week against Tampa Bay, as he had 12 receptions for 130 yards and one touchdown. The receptions and receiving yardage were season-highs for Woods, as well as the 15 targets he saw in this game. In what was expected to be a tough game for Woods and Cooper Kupp, both WRs had their way with the Tampa Bay secondary, combining for 23 receptions 275 receiving yards.
Week 12 brings familiar opponent San Francisco who ranked 15th in aFPA to WRs this season. Woods had a rough go against the Niners earlier this season as he caught four balls for 29 yards and one touchdown, however, if last week is any indication of what to expect moving forward, Woods can be expected to be a rock-solid WR2 in this one.
Week 11 at Tampa Bay
Woods had a forgettable game last week against Seattle, as he caught five of his six targets for 33 yards. Woods was working the underneath routes all game against a poor secondary and ultimately took a backseat to Josh Reynolds who led the team in production. Even though Woods didn’t produce as a WR1/2, it was once again good to see the coaching staff trying to get Woods involved with ample opportunities.
Week 11 will bring a much more difficult matchup as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are ranked 12th in aFPA to WRs this season. The Tampa defense is truly one of the elite defenses in the NFL and Woods’ production will be tied to whether or not Jared Goff can get his passes off now that the team will be without tackle Andrew Whitworth. Woods will be an upside WR2 in this one.
Week 10 vs Seattle
Woods finished strong heading into the bye week as he posted his best day this season in Week 8 against the Dolphins catching seven receptions for 85 yards and one touchdown to go along with two carries for nine yards and one touchdown. Both Rams WRs were heavily featured in this game, as Jared Goff’s season-high 61 pass attempts ensured his top guys were going to get fed.
Woods will be heading into Week 10 against Seattle, who ranks last in aFPA to WRs. In a system that already tries to manufacture as many touches as possible for him, Woods should be fired up as an upside WR2 in this potential shootout.
Week 8 at Miami
Woods had his worse game of the season last week against Miami, as he caught three passes for 22 yards and four carries for 23 yards and a lost fumble. The Rams are getting Woods involved in every which way possible, yet his five targets last week tie for his lowest this season. Between a heavy rushing attack and a diverse passing game, there just is not room for Woods to produce as a WR2 on a weekly basis.
Taking on Miami and the 12th ranked aFPA defense vs WRs, Woods will have his hands full with shutdown corner Byron Jones. With the Rams most likely looking to run the ball heavily in this game, don’t expect anything other than WR3 production from Woods in this one.
