Week 5 at San Francisco 49ers
Nick Chubb had a huge game last week, highlighted by an 88-yard score. But even aside from that big play, he played well in the matchup finishing 20-165-3 on the ground. He even added 18 yards on three receptions. He's now at 497 scrimmage yards on the season, with at least 85 yards in every game. He's dominating Cleveland's backfield for touches and should be a solid start the rest of the season. He does get a brutal matchup this week against the 49ers, though. San Francisco is allowing just 60 rush yards per game while not giving up a single score to a back. Chubb should still be viewed as an RB1, but be warned he may struggle.
Week 4 at Baltimore Ravens
Nick Chubb has 20+ touches in three straight games to open the season and is averaging 100 scrimmage yards per game. He played 70 of the team's 72 offensive snaps in Week 3, meaning his backups are hardly even seeing the field. It's rare to have a running back who is so involved in the offense, and when you get one, you'll want to start them every week. Chubb does get a tough matchup against the Ravens this week. Baltimore is allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs with the second-fewest rushing yards (152) to the position). Despite the tough matchup, we still like Chubb as an RB1.
Week 3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Only four running backs have 20 or more touches in the first two games this season, and Nick Chubb is one of them. He hasn't been incredible on the field, but that doesn't really matter for fantasy. He finished with 85 scrimmage yards in Week 1 (with a touchdown vultured away) and 98 scrimmage yards in Week 2 with a score. As long as Chubb keeps getting touches, he'll remain a must-start option at running back.
He gets a favorable matchup this week as the Rams have allowed fifth-most fantasy points to opposing backs this season. Most of that was due to Christian McCaffrey's big game in Week 1. But it proves this defense can be run on, making Chubb an easy RB1 in Week 3.
Week 2 at New York Jets
As expected, Nick Chubb dominated the backfield touches for Cleveland in Week 1. He carried the ball 17 times, compared to just two times for his backups. Unfortunately for Chubb owners, however, one of those two carries to his backups went for a touchdown as Chubb was unable to score. But Chubb still finished with 85 scrimmage yards, which is a good game for him.
He'll face a favorable Jets defense, which just allowed 128 rushing yards to the Bills in Week 1. It's hard to find a back these days that isn't in a committee, so when you have one, you start them with confidence. Chubb is a strong RB1 option in Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Tennessee Titans
Nick Chubb broke out as a rookie, finishing with 1,145 scrimmage yards despite not starting until Week 7. He's now the main back in Cleveland to enter 2019, and doesn't have much competition behind him to start the year. Kareem Hunt is dealing with a suspension, which means Chubb will be a strong start for the immediate future.
He does draw a tough Week 1 matchup against Tennessee. The Titans allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs in 2018. Part of their dominance came from limiting receptions, as Tennessee allowed the fewest receiving yards (404) to the position last year. Chubb is still an RB1 play this week, but just know he may not have a super dominant effort.
Fantasy Upside
Once Nick Chubb was given the reigns to the backfield last season, he was instant gold. He picked up his first start in Week 7 and from then on, he scored eight touchdowns in his first seven games. He had 70+ yards in every game but one (the final game of the season where he received less touches), averaging 16.6 half ppr points per game over the final eight weeks. He also received 15+ touches in every start but two as a rookie.
Fantasy Downside
The obvious downside this season is the addition of Kareem Hunt. Chubb would be an easy first-round selection without the presence of Hunt, but his signing makes things difficult. Hunt is talented enough to be an RB1 on his own, so having two backs with this type of talent complicates their fantasy values. Then there’s also Duke Johnson in the same backfield, and although he’s requested a trade, he remains on the team and could just add to the committee backfield in Cleveland.
2019 Bottom Line
The good news for Chubb is Hunt is suspended for the first eight games of the season. This gives Chubb RB1 value for the first half, giving him plenty of value to be drafted early. With Odell Beckham Jr. also joining the squad, it should open up the offense for more explosive plays all around. Chubb will be a decent selection near the end of the second round, where his current ADP sits.
Week 17 at Baltimore Ravens
Nick Chubb isn't finding the end zone like he used to, but he does have back-to-back 100-yard rushing games. Chubb has had 100 yards or a TD in every game but one since taking over as the starter in Week 7. He does get a tough matchup against the Ravens this week who have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs. But Baltimore has allowed a rushing score to a back in five of the last six games. We wouldn't expect a monster game from Chubb, but he's still reliable as a lower-end RB1.
Week 16 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Nick Chubb didn't score a touchdown last week, so he's easily droppable at this point. All jokes aside, Chubb finished with 100 yards, which is a milestone he's reached three times already despite not starting all season. It was also the first time in the last five games he didn't score at least once. It just speaks to how great Chubb has been when you're surprised he didn't score.
He gets a great matchup this week as the Bengals have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing backs this season. Chubb had 128 yards and two scores against them the last time he played, so he should be a great option. We like him as a strong RB1.
Week 15 at Denver Broncos
Nick Chubb extended his touchdown streak to five games last week as he's found the endzone in all but one game since taking over as starter. He also had 83 total yards, giving him at least 70 yards in every game since taking over as the starter. So in short, Chubb has been impressively consistent after Carlos Hyde left.
He does get a fairly tough matchup this week against the Broncos, however. That TD streak will be put to the test as Denver hasn't allowed a rushing score to a back in seven straight games. We still like Chubb as an RB1 this week.
Week 14 vs. Carolina Panthers
Nick Chubb had his worst game last week since taking over as the starter, but he still finished with 72 yards and a touchdown. If that's his floor, then that's very impressive. Chubb has scored in five of his six games since taking over and has at least 70 yards in each contest.
He does get a tough matchup against the Panthers this week, however. Carolina is giving up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs and is sixth in allowing the fewest rush yards per game (96.3). But Carolina has given up a rushing score to a back in five of its last six games. We think Chubb will be fine and he can be viewed as a low-end RB1.
