Week 12 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Nick Chubb's Week 12 sets up nicely for fantasy purposes with the Browns being 6.5 point favorites on the road against Jacksonville. The Jaguars struggle to stop most positions, and that includes opposing running games. Chubb has cleared 100 rushing yards in 4-of-6 games he's playing in this season, and in one of the other games, he suffered an injury part of the way through. Chubb should see plenty of work in this game, and there will likely be plenty of opportunity to go around for both he and Kareem Hunt to be fantasy starters. The only concern for Chubb is his lack of red-zone usage, where the team clearly prefers Hunt's skillset. Even with diminished usage at the goal line, Chubb has a great chance at scoring this week and should see plenty of usage if the Browns can maintain a lead. He's a high-end RB2 at worst and could easily finish as an RB1 this week.
Week 11 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined for 41 carries in Chubb's return during Week 10. Chubb netted 19 of those carries and looked like his old self by posting 126 yards for a healthy 6.6 YPC. Chubb even left points on the field when he refused to score a touchdown late in the game to keep possession and seal the victory for the Browns. It will be interesting to see how Cleveland splits the running back touches going forward and if they were easing Chubb back into action by giving Hunt an equal amount of carries. The Eagles run defense is solid, but a good volume projection and Chubb's rushing talent make him startable as a RB2 this week.
Week 10 vs. Houston Texans
It sounds like Nick Chubb should return from his sprained MCL for Week 10 against the Texans. Chubb walks back into borderline RB1 status facing off with Houston's terrible run defense. Kareem Hunt will still monopolize most of the pass-catching work, but there should be plenty to go around for both backs in Week 10 as the Texans have allowed more rushing yards than any team in the league in 2020. It is possible the Browns choose to ease Chubb back into the gameplan coming off his extended absence, but those concerns are not enough to move Chubb out of lineups in a plus matchup. Start Chubb with confidence so long as he gets activated before Sunday.
Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Nick Chubb sprained his MCL in Week 4 and will be out for at least a month. Kareem Hunt should operate as a bellcow for Cleveland in Chubb's absence.
Week 4 at Dallas Cowboys
Nick Chubb has looked great the past two weeks by posting back-to-back 100 yard games and four touchdowns. Week 4 against the Cowboys will be a different beast with game script projected to favor more passing from Cleveland. Dallas is currently sixth in the league in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. The tough matchup isn't Chubb's only concern, as he continues to be minimally involved in the passing game (three targets in three games) and Kareem Hunt could consume even more work than usual this week if the Browns fall behind early to Dak Prescott and the high-powered Cowboys offense. Chubb's rushing workload and immense talent make him startable as a RB2, but he carries plenty of risk for a disappointing performance this week.
Week 3 vs. Washington Football Team
Nick Chubb's performance through two weeks has exhibited both his immense talent and his risky usage profile. Week 2 against the Bengals showed us what Chubb is capable of. He turned 22 carries into 124 yards and two touchdowns, consistently shedding tacklers and punishing defenders at the second level. Few players can move the ball on the ground with Chubb's combination of speed and ferocity, but he loses plenty of work to Kareem Hunt, particularly in negative game scripts. Working in Chubb's favor this week is a projected positive game script against the Washington Football Team. The Browns are favored by a full touchdown, but Chubb will have to deal with a Washington front seven that has smothered the run to this point in the season. The tough matchup lowers Chubb to RB2 status but he should still be started in all leagues as he should see plenty of carries this week.
Week 2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Nick Chubb's efficiency was on display against the Ravens, but so was the risk that he brings every week in fantasy. Chubb averaged 6.0 YPC against Baltimore, but only received 10 carries and one target as the Browns fell behind early and had to play catch up with the passing game. This week's matchup against the Bengals is a significant upgrade, and Chubb projects for a much larger workload Thursday night. Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley combined to post 4.6 YPC on 31 carries against the Bengals in Week 1. Neither of those backs is close to the pure runner Chubb is. Start Chubb as a solid RB1 this week.
Week 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Nick Chubb will start 2020 off with game script concerns in a road opener where the Browns are listed as eight point underdogs. Chubb projects for a heavy rushing workload in any game where the Browns can keep it close, but Week 1 presents a challenge with a matchup against the Ravens. Chubb exploded against the Ravens in Week 4 last year without Kareem Hunt in the picture, but posted a dud in the second matchup between these teams once Hunt returned. Chubb is playable as an RB2 but presents real risk of being neutralized due to game script in favor of Hunt if Cleveland falls behind early.
Fantasy Upside
Simply stated, Nick Chubb’s performance as a rusher through two seasons has established him among the best runners in all of the NFL. He finished second in the league in rushing yards (1,494) last season, falling just 46 yards short of Derrick Henry’s total. Those yards did not come easy. The Cleveland offensive line was a mess last year, but Chubb salvaged a productive season with his elusiveness. Chubb finished second in the league in both evaded tackles and yards created last season, consistently showing the ability to gain yards independent of his line’s blocking. Chubb also has significant big-play ability. He finished first in the league in runs longer than 15 yards last season, and has already racked up touchdowns of 92, 88, 63, 41, and 33 yards in less than two seasons as a feature back. The Browns upgraded multiple positions on their offensive line this offseason, and Chubb should return as the starter working alongside passing-down back Kareem Hunt. Assuming he stays healthy and Hunt does not assume a larger role than anticipated, there is little reason to think Chubb will not finish among the league leaders in rushing again this year. Improved efficiency from the Cleveland offense as a whole would also spell higher touchdown upside for Chubb, who only managed eight (12th among running backs) last season despite having the fifth-most red-zone touches.
Fantasy Downside
The downside in Chubb’s fantasy outlook lies in the passing game. Chubb has shown himself to be a capable pass catcher in the past, but Hunt’s presence in the same backfield means he will come off the field on most third downs and even more frequently when the Browns face a negative game script. Hunt was suspended for the first half of last season, and this led to a spike in Chubb’s passing game usage with him catching 25 passes on four targets per game before Week 9. Once Hunt returned, Chubb’s involvement in the passing game was cut in half. He received just over two targets per game and only managed 11 receptions from Week 9 on. Hunt is not facing any suspension this season so there is no reason to think he will suddenly disappear from his role in the offense in 2020. With Hunt continuing to monopolize most of the passing game at the running back position, Chubb has a lower floor and ceiling than the other premier runners going at the top of fantasy drafts.
2020 Bottom Line
Chubb’s talent and role as the early-down back on what should be a productive offense mean he carries substantial weekly upside. It would not be a surprise whatsoever if Chubb finished among the league leaders in both rushing yards and touchdowns this season. However, his diminished role in the passing game means he is more game script dependent than the elite running backs and renders him a low-end RB1.
Week 17 at Cincinnati Bengals
As somewhat expected, Nick Chubb struggled last week in a tough matchup against the Ravens. He ran 15 times for just 45 yards while finishing with no receptions. It was by far his worst game of the season. He gets a chance at redemption in Week 17 as he gets a great matchup against the Bengals. Just a few weeks ago, Chubb ran all over Cincy, carrying the ball 15 times for 106 yards (7.1 ypc). He should be viewed as a strong RB1 play in Week 17.
