Week 16 at Steelers
Nick Chubb went off against the Packers, rushing 17 times for 126 yards and a touchdown while catching 3-of-4 targets for 58 yards. He's now finished as RB7 and RB5 in his last two games. Chubb remains one of the most efficient backs in the NFL (5.5 YPC) and he'll now get another exploitable matchup.
The Steelers rank 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to running backs, making this a smash spot for Chubb. The one concern is that Kareem Hunt has a chance to return to the lineup, but Chubb should still dominate the workload here. Fire him up as an elite RB1.
Week 16 at Packers
Nick Chubb saw a hefty workload against the Raiders without Kareem Hunt, totaling 91 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. He also caught his lone target for two yards. We can expect another 20+ touches for one of the league's most efficient backs with Kareem Hunt likely out for another game. That keeps Chubb as an RB1.
Chubb goes up against a Packers defense that ranks 7th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to running backs, making this a difficult matchup. There's also the risk that the Browns fall behind by multiple scores, forcing them to move away from Chubb. Since Chubb has limited passing-game usage, that adds a bit of risk to his profile, but he's still a rock-solid RB1.
Week 15 vs. Raiders
Nick Chubb is in a smash spot as the clear-cut focal point of this Browns offense with Kareem Hunt, Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, and Austin Hooper each out of the lineup. There's a reasonable chance that he sees a season-high in touches in this game. That sets up nicely given his high efficiency (5.5 YPC). I know that two prominent offensive linemen are out (Wyatt Teller and Jedrick Wills), but the volume is high and the matchup is great.
The Raiders defense ranks 29th in Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points per Game, so Chubb should have no problem finding running room in this game. There's also a good chance that Chubb sees more usage in the passing game. D'Ernest Johnson should factor in, but likely not as much as Kareem Hunt. It's wheels up for Chubb this week.
Week 14 vs. Ravens
Nick Chubb rushed eight times for 16 yards and caught 2-of-4 targets for 23 yards when these two teams met before the bye. We'll likely see a much better performance this time around, as the Browns are home favorites here. I think we'll see Cleveland control this game, as the Ravens are really struggling right now. This means that it could be a positive game script for Chubb.
Baltimore ranks 1st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to running backs, so it might be an inefficient game for Chubb. Having said that, Chubb is one of the best pure runners in the NFL, able to overcome even the toughest matchups. He's a low-end RB1, even with Kareem Hunt back in the lineup.
Week 12 at Ravens
Nick Chubb has been terrific in his last two games, combining for 267 yards and two touchdowns on 36 carries (7.42 YPC). He's also caught all four of his targets for 40 yards and a touchdown. The issue here is that Kareem Hunt is expected back in the lineup this week, which would limit Chubb's potential volume.
Chubb goes up against a Ravens defense that ranks eighth in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game, so this is a tough matchup. However, the Browns running game is among the best in the NFL, capable of powering through any difficult matchup. We can consider Chubb a low-end RB1 with Hunt's return. Remember though, there's always a chance that Hunt is limited in his first game back, which would bode well for Chubb's outlook.
Week 11 vs. Lions
Nick Chubb should be ready to be activated from the COVID-19 list in time for this game. It's perfect timing because it's an absolute smash spot against a Lions defense that ranks 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game against running backs. It's also a phenomenal game script with the Browns projected to win by double-digits.
Chubb demonstrated his upside without Kareem Hunt in their blowout win over the Bengals two weeks ago, rushing 14 times for 137 yards and two touchdowns. We could see similar output from one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. Fire him up as an elite RB1 in this spot.
Week 9 at Bengals
Nick Chubb was disappointing in his return last week, rushing 16 times for 61 yards (3.8 YPC). It was surprising to see Chubb not have a bit of a larger role in the passing game in Kareem Hunt's absence, but perhaps this was just the Browns easing him in since it was his first game back. Chubb remains one of the most efficient runners in the NFL (5.5 YPC), so he's always in play as an RB1, especially with Hunt out.
Chubb faces a Bengals defense that ranks 26th in aFPA to running backs, so this is a good matchup. While D'Ernest Johnson figures to play a role, you have to think that we see Chub get about 20 touches in this spot. There's a chance that this game turns into a shootout because the Browns might struggle to contain this Bengals' passing game. This bodes well for Chubb.
Week 8 vs. Steelers
Nick Chubb returns to the lineup after missing last week's Thursday nighter against the Broncos. Chubb is in line for a larger workload with Kareem Hunt sidelined with a calf injury. While we saw D'Ernest Johnson go off for 146 yards on 22 carries, we can safely project more volume for Chubb than what he was seeing when Hunt was healthy. You'll probably see Johnson spell Chubb a bit to keep him fresh, but you have to think that 20+ touches are in play for the star running back.
Chubb goes up against a Steelers defense that ranks 6th in aFPA to running backs and 9th in rush DVOA. However, this Browns' offensive line is fantastic at run-blocking, ranking 1st in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards. They are also 1st in rush DVOA, so we shouldn't be too concerned about the matchup. Consider Chubb as an RB1 in this spot.
Week 6 vs. Cardinals
Chubb is coming off a big game against the Chargers, where he rushed 21 times for 161 yards and one touchdown. He also caught his lone target for nine yards. Chubb continues to put up absurd efficiency, averaging 5.8 yards per carry while posting 17.5 fantasy points above expectation, which ranks fourth among running backs.
While the Cardinals rank eighth in aFPA to running backs, they haven't faced a running game as good as this yet. The Browns rank second in adjusted line yards, which means that their offensive line is elite at run-blocking. We've also seen Arizona give up efficient games to Darrell Henderson Jr. (6.4 YPC) and Dalvin Cook (6.0 YPC). Chubb looks poised for another productive week.
Week 5 at Chargers
Chubb has been his usual efficient self this season, averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game with 5.2 yards per carry, but he's been a zero in the passing game, posting only four targets this season. He's also only averaging 18.25 touches per game, which caps his upside. Kareem Hunt is playing well, so he continues to see a solid workload.
However, this game projects as a good spot for Chubb to approach his weekly ceiling. The Chargers have given up big games to Clyde Edwards-Helaire (17 carries for 100 yards) as well as Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard (combined for 29 carries for 180 yards). We could see the Browns mimic the Cowboys' approach and pound their two running backs here. Chubb needs to be considered an upside RB1 in this spot.
