Week 4 at Vikings
Chubb currently ranks as RB8 in half-PPR points per game, but he's only playing on 52.74% of the snaps while averaging 17 touches. Chubb hasn't been a factor in the passing game at all, catching all three of his targets for 21 yards this season. Having said that, this is one of the best pure runners in football (5.5 YPC), running behind an elite offensive line. He's an RB1 on a weekly basis, but the ceiling is capped due to usage.
Chubb goes up against a Vikings defense that ranks 21st in aFPA to running backs. This team gave up big games to Joe Mixon (150 yards on 33 touches), and Chris Carson (6.7 YPC), so this is an exploitable matchup for Chubb. There's also a good chance that he finds the endzone given his high touchdown equity in a projected high-scoring game.
Week 3 vs. Bears
Chubb is currently averaging an absurd 6.8 yards per carry with 178 yards and three touchdowns on 26 rush attempts. He's running behind one of the best offensive lines in football, so while we will see a decrease in efficiency, he's likely to remain one of the most efficient backs in the NFL all year long. The issue here is that he's only averaging 13 carries per game so far, but after averaging 15.8 last season, we can safely project a bump in volume going forward.
Chubb goes up against a Bears defense that has been solid against the run, allowing only 3.81 yards per carry, good for 11th in the NFL. However, the Bears have not faced a running game like this one, so it's tough to worry too much about Chubb in this spot. The Browns are seven-point favorites, which means that they project to control the game and play with the lead. This looks like a potential positive game script for Chubb, which could result in more volume. He's an every-week RB1.
Week 2 vs. Texans
Chubb rushed for 83 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries in Week 1 against the Chiefs. He also added two receptions for 23 yards. Chubb finished as the RB3 in half-PPR formats despite only getting 17 touches. He played only 52.54% of the snaps last week, which demonstrates his risk since he doesn't get the same usage as some of the other elite RB1s in the league.
Chubb is in a smash spot against the Texans this week. This is a defense that ranked 31st in aFPA last season. The Browns should be able to control this game and win by double-digits, setting up a run-heavy game script for Chubb to do major damage. The risk here is that the game gets out of hand early and the Browns opt to rest Chubb and let Kareem Hunt carry the load. However, this matchup is too good to worry about something like that, so we need to consider Chubb a top-5 RB this week.
Week 1 at Kansas City Chiefs
Nick Chubb is in a good spot in a potential shootout against a Chiefs defense that ranked 26th in aFPA last season. The Browns ran on 49% of their plays in neutral game scripts last season and we can expect more of the same this year. They’re returning all five starters on an offensive line that was already elite, so it’s wheels up for Chubb. We could see the Browns try to pound the football to keep the Chiefs off the field here, leading to more touches for Chubb.
The risk here is that the Browns fall behind early and use Kareem Hunt a bit more than usual, since he’s the preferred pass-catching back, making him more suitable in a pass-heavy game script. Having said that, the Browns have shown a willingness to continue running the ball even when falling behind. Last season, in the AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs, they came out running the ball with Chubb and Hunt in the second half, even though they were trailing 19-3. Chubb looks like a Top-6 running back in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Nick Chubb rushed for 1,067 yards and 12 touchdowns on 190 carries (5.6 Y/A). He also caught 16-of-18 targets for 150 yards in 12 games. Despite his lack of usage in the passing game, Chubb still finished as RB5 in half-PPR points per game. This is a special runner who plays in an offense that projects to be one of the best in the NFL. He also runs behind one of the most dominant offensive lines in the league. Chubb has the upside to rush for 1,300+ yards and 15+ touchdowns, which would make him a premium fantasy asset even with his status as a zero in the passing game. If Kareem Hunt were forced to miss time due to injury, Chubb would be right beside Derrick Henry as a dominant bell-cow running back. We could also see Chubb catch more passes in Hunt’s absence. Chubb provides a nice combination of floor and upside.
Fantasy Downside
Since Chubb is barely used in the passing game and Kareem Hunt is still taking away touches, Chubb needs to be super-efficient in order to retain his status as a Top-12 running back. Last season, Chubb rushed for a career-high 5.6 yards per carry and it’s tough to maintain that type of efficiency. There’s also a low chance that if Hunt plays above expectation, he could carve out a larger role in the offense. Having said that, Chubb is still an elite runner, so it’s reasonable to project him as one of the more efficient backs in the league, especially given his strong team context.
2021 Bottom Line
Chubb is a strong bet for 1,200+ rushing yards and 10+ touchdowns with sky-high upside if Hunt were forced to miss time. Currently being drafted as RB9 (13.1 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues, Chubb is priced appropriately given his floor and upside. Even in a worst-case scenario, Chubb should be able to provide Top-15 value at RB. Don’t worry too much about Hunt, as this is still a run-heavy offense with enough volume to go around for both backs to provide production. At the same time, it’s tough to see Chubb finishing in the Top-3 at his position without an injury to Hunt.
Week 17 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Nick Chubb looked set up for a massive stat line in Week 16 with the Browns missing most of their receivers due to COVID protocols and facing off against a weak Jets team. Things did not go according to plan. The Browns fell behind to the Jets and stunningly had Baker Mayfield throw 53 passes, resulting in a hugely disappointing 11-28 rushing line for Chubb, although he did punch in a touchdown to salvage his day. Now Chubb and the Browns will have a much tougher matchup against the Steelers in a critical divisional showdown. The Browns should be back at full strength for this one, which should benefit Chubb in opening up running lanes and getting scoring opportunities. Despite last week's dud, Chubb is a surefire starting option in leagues that are still playing in Week 17.
Week 16 at New York Jets
Nick Chubb's "down week" last week included 66 yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown, showing the excellent floor he has had since returning from his sprained MCL mid-season. Chubb has five rushing touchdowns over the last four games and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry on the season. Simply put, Chubb is among the most efficient running backs in the league and he plays for a run-heavy scheme under Kevin Stefanski. Yes, Kareem Hunt mixes in to take some of the running back touches, but Cleveland is one of the few teams that can support multiple fantasy-relevant backs and Chubb typically makes the most of the touches he does receive. In a Week 16 game against the lowly Jets, Chubb is a no-doubt RB1.
Week 15 at New York Giants
Nick Chubb has returned from injured reserve with a vengeance. Since returning from his knee injury in Week 10, Chubb is averaging 109 rushing yards per game and has racked up five touchdowns in five games. One interesting aspect of Chubb's recent play in his six targets in the last three games. Six targets doesn't sound like much, but passing game usage is the only thing missing from Chubb's fantasy profile and even a couple targets per game could be enough to vault him into elite RB1 status. Chubb gets the Giants in Week 15, a defense that is near the league average in allowing production to opposing running backs. Don't let Kareem Hunt's presence or the matchup scare you from inserting Chubb into lineups as a RB1 this week.
Week 14 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Nick Chubb returned to the lineup in Week 10 and didn't miss a beat as he has finished as a top-10 fantasy running back in three out of four games since his return. Chubb's rushing efficiency is among the best in the league, and he has only improved on his early-season performance since returning from injury. He has historically struggled against the Ravens, and the matchup this week is not particularly inviting, but Chubb is seeing enough work to remain a must-start fantasy asset when you consider his ability to create yards without perfect blocking. Chubb's absence from the passing game would usually bring game script concerns, but the Ravens' offense has not been explosive of late and the Browns should be able to keep pace. Chubb is a low-end RB1 for Week 14.
Week 13 at Tennessee Titans
Nick Chubb continues to show why he is one of the best pure runners in the NFL. Chubb leads the league in average yards after contact and ranks among the league leaders in explosive runs despite missing four games. So long as the volume is there, few running backs know what to do with it better than Chubb. The Titans are not necessarily an easy matchup for running backs, but they allow a ton of volume to opposing offenses and are not a troubling matchup either. Chubb's lack of passing game role and occasional deference to Kareem Hunt at the goal line takes him out of the elite RB1 conversation, but he is still a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 this week.
