Week 8 at Seattle Seahawks
This is a tough match-up for Melvin Gordon. Seattle is top-10 in aFPA to RBs. However, there's no disputing he's been among the top tier of fantasy RBs that include Gurley, Kamara, Barkley, Hunt and Conner. He's an every week starter, given his very large workload of 15 carries and five receptions per game. You start him every week and in Seattle is no different.
One thing to note. Gordon had the bye week to recover from a hamstring injury but turned in just limited participation Wednesday and Thursday. Monitor his status leading up to kickoff.
Week 7 vs. Tennessee Titans (London)
Only Todd Gurley has been more valuable than Melvin Gordon this season, and if you were one of the managers who drafted Gordon in the second round, you hit the jackpot. 16+ PPR points in every game, five 20+ games and two 30+ weeks show his elite-level production in 2018. Five yards per carry and five receptions per game will do that for you. The Titans (12th in aFPA to RBs) pose no real threat to Gordon's volume, as the Chargers are favored with an implied team total of 26 points. Enjoy another big week from Gordon.
Week 6 at Cleveland Browns
The Chargers have a below average implied team total this week in Cleveland, facing a rebuilt Browns defense that has forced 11 turnovers in three home games this year. However, this defense is closer to a run funnel defense, as it ranks much higher in aFPA to QBs than RBs. Melvin Gordon's volume is as reliable as it gets, and he should continue to be the workhorse in Week 6, leading to RB1 numbers.
Week 5 vs. Oakland Raiders
The Chargers have the third-highest implied team total in Week 5 at 28.75 points. Oakland is just 19th in aFPA to RBs this season. Melvin Gordon has been a fantasy God-send for those that didn't have a high first round pick in drafts. He's averaging 20 touches per game, including six receptions, with Philip Rivers looking his way often near the goal line. He's an every week superstar of a fantasy starter.
Week 4 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Melvin Gordon had his "worst" game of the season last week and still posted 16 PPR points. The 49ers rank just 26th in aFPA to RBs. Only the Chiefs have a higher implied team total this week, with the Chargers expected to score 28.5 points. Gordon's bell cow role locks him into high-end RB1 usage for the rest of the season, including Week 4.
Week 3 at Los Angeles Rams
Proceed cautiously with the Chargers offense this week, despite the fact that they lit up the Chiefs and Bills in the first two weeks of the season. The Rams defense is most certainly not the Chiefs or Bills. A low implied team total of 20.5 points is also cause for concern. The strong D-Line held David Johnson in check last week, and last year's aFPA versus RBs of 32nd is largely irrelevant because of the improvements in the offseason to this unit. Gordon is averaging less than 3.0 yards per carry, but his 15 receptions keep him on the RB1 radar for Week 3, despite the tough matchup.
Week 2 at Buffalo Bills
The Bills lost 47-3 to the Ravens last week. Sooooooo, yeah. Start your Chargers. What's most encouraging about Melvin Gordon's Week 1 stat line is that he appeared to take many of the vacant targets reserved last year for Chargers tight ends. 13 targets converted into nine receptions for more than 100 receiving yards. That kind of production against a Bills team that allowed three touchdowns to Ravens RBs last week makes Gordon a bonafide high-end RB1 this week.
Week 1 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers have the sixth-highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 25.75 points. We are projecting at least 22 touches for Melvin Gordon this week against the Chiefs, who ranked just seventh in aFPA to RBs last season. Volume is king for fantasy running backs. Start your stud here.
Fantasy Upside
Gordon had a strong 2017, rushing for more than 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns and adding four more scores (and nearly 500 yards) as a receiver. Gordon played through some nagging injuries and at one point was challenged by HC Anthony Lynn to get back to being a more physical back and collecting yards after contact. Gordon responded, and over his final four games he finished with 77 carries for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns and 16 catches for 174 yards, pleasing his head coach in the process. "I thought he was one of the best runners in the game the last four weeks," Lynn said. The Chargers' offensive line could be better in 2018 as well. The team added center Mike Pouncey as a free agent from Miami, and right guard Forrest Lamp will hopefully be healthy after missing his rookie season in 2017 with a torn ACL.
Fantasy Downside
Gordon's fantasy value has been bolstered by his touchdown scoring; beyond that, however, his average yards per carry has been pedestrian.
2018 Bottom Line
Better blocking should help Gordon improve on his career average of 3.8 yards per carry, but, as Lynn pointed out, over those final four games Gordon averaged 4.3 yards per carry. That has Lynn even more excited for Gordon's outlook this year. "We're talking about giving the ball to Melvin more," Lynn said. Fantasy owners take note.
Week 17 vs. Oakland Raiders
The Chargers are fighting for a playoff spot, which means you can safely start your fantasy options for this team in Week 17. Melvin Gordon faces an Oakland defense ranked 12th in aFPA to RBs. Gordon's workload (20+ touches every week since the Chargers' bye) locks him in as an RB1 in the final week of the regular season.
