Week 5 at New York Giants
After just 10 carries last week, Melvin Gordon voiced his displeasure this week: "I'm super frustrated at the moment, but I can't let it break me," Gordon said. "It all falls under the same thing. But obviously not getting the touches and not getting the win—the win is the biggest thing. But then the fact that you feel like you can't even help, you're just kind of sitting back, it sucks because I just feel like I'm kind of helpless back there."
The Giants may only be eighth in PPR points allowed to fantasy RBs, but the Giants rank just 21st in our aFPA vs. PPR RB rankings. Gordon had at least 16 touches in each of the first three weeks. After the above frustration this week, expect him to get at least that. He's still a top-10 RB in Week 5.
Week 4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Head coach Anthony Lynn indicated this week Melvin Gordon would be "full go" in practice, despite a lingering knee issue in the same knee that's given him some issues over the past two years. Philadelphia is the best defense in our aFPA vs. RBs, however, and that means you should temper top-5 expectations for Gordon this week. You can't argue with his workload though, as Gordon is averaging 18 touches per game. You're starting him, but he's not a high upside DFS building block this week.
Week 3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
It's a good thing Melvin Gordon scores touchdowns and catches passes because he's only averaging 2.47 yards per carry this season. His 12 receptions and 2 touchdowns are saving fantasy owners to this point. This week against the Chiefs he'll have to rely on volume again. In three games against Kansas City, Gordon has scored 17.7, 10.5, and 5.9 PPR points, with the highest coming in Week 1 of last season. Gordon is still an RB1 this week but likely not a top-five RB in Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Miami Dolphins
The undisputed bell cow of the Chargers, Gordon garnered 23 touches and turned that into 79 total yards and a touchdown. Also, consider this: in games Gordon played at home when the Chargers were favored, he averaged 29 touches and 146 total yards. In that scenario, he also averaged 25 PPR points per game. The Dolphins also allowed more than 23 PPR points to opposing backfields last season. Consider him a top-five RB option in Week 2.
Week 1 at Denver Broncos
In two games against Denver last season, Melvin Gordon rushed for 205 yards on 50 carries (4.1 yards per carry) and added 4 receptions for 44 yards (all in one game). If the Chargers are going to find success in Denver, they are going to need to run the ball. Expect a heavy workload for Gordon to start the season, potentially more than 25 touches. For that reason, he is a top-10 running back option this season. Along with that volume, Gordon faces a Denver defense that was 18th in PPR points allowed to running backs last season.
Fantasy Upside
New head coach Anthony Lynn likes the direction Melvin Gordon is headed but believes he can get even more out of him. "Man, he has some upside," Lynn said in February. "He did a hell of a job from his rookie year to his sophomore year. And I told him we can take this to another level." That is music to fantasy owners' ears. After a disappointing rookie year, Gordon proved to be the back the team moved up the board to draft, finishing 2016 three yards shy of 1,000 yards with 10 rushing TDs in just 13 games. The good news? In addition to Gordon avoiding surgery after a late-season knee injury, Lynn's arrival is a positive. Whether as an offensive coordinator last season or as a running backs coach prior to that, Lynn has constructed nine 1,000-yard rushing seasons in his 14 years coaching the position.
Fantasy Downside
The question this year is whether he can match last year's production if the touchdown total diminishes.
2017 Bottom Line
Gordon's meager 3.9 yards per carry made it easy to overlook his burst and power to break initial contact behind an offensive line that struggled to open holes on a consistent basis. There's reason to believe Lynn can help with some of that. In addition, the continuity provided by Lynn's decision to retain Ken Whisenhunt as offensive coordinator should help as does the fact there isn't much in the way of talent behind Gordon -- at least in terms of players capable of cutting into the second-year back's reps (assuming health isn't an issue). Given all the positives, prepare to spend a first round pick to secure his services.
Week 14 at Carolina
Melvin Gordon carried 17 times for 84 yards and a TD and added four catches for 54 yards last week. He found the end zone for the first time in two games, so that was an added bonus for owners. This week, Gordon gets the Panthers on the road. Carolina is third in allowing fantasy points to RBs, so it's not a great matchup. However, we have Gordon still ranked as a RB1 play, coming in sixth. The Panthers were just lit up by Thomas Rawls and the Seahawks on the ground last week, as Rawls ran for over 100 yards and two TDs, so there is certainly some potential for Gordon. Keep in mind, Gordon's matchups in Weeks 15 and 16 are Oakland and Cleveland, which are very favorable.
Week 13 vs. Tampa Bay
Melvin Gordon carried 17 times for 70 yards and added four catches for 19 yards last week. His 21 touches is his lowest since Week 5, after averaging over 30 the past four weeks prior. It's also back-to-back games without a TD for Gordon.
This week, Gordon gets a pretty nice matchup against the Bucs, who are 19th in allowing fantasy points to RBs. Gordon is ranked fourth on our RB list and is again shaping up to be a must-start based on his volume of work. The Buc rushing D has held Thomas Rawls and Spencer Ware in check the previous two weeks, however. But, Gordon should still be in lineups.
Week 12 at Houston
Last time we saw Melvin Gordon, he had 24 carries for 70 yards against the Dolphins. He added five catches for 62 yards though giving owners a nice, little boost in PPR leagues. It was just his third game without a TD.
To say Gordon has been a workhorse is probably an understatement. Over his last four games he's had touches of 28, 27, 36 and 29. In that same span, he's been way more involved in the passing game, averaging close to five catches a game. Factor in 25 carries a game in that same span and he's very close to 30 touches a game over the last four games. The better news is, he's coming off a bye week, because he could be in store for a big game this week as the Texans are 30th in allowing fantasy points to RBs. Gordon is ranked fourth on our RB list and is shaping up to be a great play.
Week 10 vs. Miami
Melvin Gordon had his bust-out game last week against the Titans, this despite the fact he's been a pretty good RB option this season. Gordon ran the ball 32 times for 196 yards and a TD while adding four catches for 65 yards on four targets.
Since Week 5, Gordon has been a true workhorse, carrying the ball 27, 22, 23 and 32 times in that four-game span while rushing for 94, 68, 11 and 196 with three total TDs. The only worry for Gordon owners is will the team start to cut back his workload and get Kenneth Farrow more involved. Even if they do, Gordon should continue to be a RB1 option, and this week comes in fourth on our list in a tough matchup against the Dolphins who are fourth in allowing fantasy points to RBs. At this point, there should be no issues starting Gordon who has found the end zone or gone over 100 yards in all but one game this year.
