Week 4 at Miami Dolphins
Gordon is not expected to play against the Dolphins but appears on track to play against the Denver Broncos in Week 5.
Week 2 at Detroit Lions
All signs indicate Melvin Gordon will continue his holdout and not play in Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Reports have surfaced about Melvin Gordon being on the trading block and all signs indicate he will miss Week 1 due to his contract holdout. Gordon will be evaluated on a week-to-week basis but is it safe to say he will not play against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Melvin Gordon heads into the final year of the contract he signed as a 2015 first-round pick, having thus far delivered at a high level. "He's a three-down back and puts a lot of balls in the end zone for us, a lot of touchdowns," GM Tom Telesco recently said. "He's a great player." That's also true from a fantasy perspective. CBSSports.com notes that Gordon has finished no worse than eighth-best in fantasy points and sixth-best in consistency among his rushing peers, including a No. 8 finish in 2018 despite missing four games. He finished inside the top 10 in the league last season in broken tackles and yards gained after contact. If there are complaints against him, it's been a less-than-impressive average per carry and he tends to be touchdown dependent. He corrected the former (at least to some degree thanks to a 5.1 ypc.) last year and he's hit double-digits in touchdowns (combined rushing and receiving) in each of the last four years. So if that's a complaint, it's hard to get too upset about it.
Fantasy Downside
Gordon, scheduled to make $5.6 million in the final year of his rookie contract, informed the Chargers in early July that he intended to hold out of training camp and would demand a trade without a new deal in hand. Training camp opened on July 24, Gordon did not have a new contract and did not report for the first day of camp. Both sides appear to be dug in here and there's no reason to believe a quick resolution is coming. I’ll remind you the Chargers played four games without Gordon last season and won them all, including huge victories at Pittsburgh and Kansas City. Those results were a testament to the players who filled in for Gordon -- most notably Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson and even undrafted rookie Detrez Newsome -- but also a bit of a statistical oddity. The Chargers averaged only 84 yards rushing in those four wins, a 33-yard-per-game drop from their season standard. So, even though the offense is undoubtedly better with Gordon, the presence of those other backs is worth noting given the circumstances.
2019 Bottom Line
While his Average Draft Position is bound to fall due to this situation, it's not clear how far. You'll want to follow this situation closely before investing in Gordon early in your draft.
Week 19 at New England Patriots
The Chargers go west to east for the second consecutive week to take on the Patriots in New England with a trip to the AFC Championship game on the line. The Bolts have the second-lowest implied team total of the eight remaining teams, however, at just 21.5 points. New England ranks 15th in aFPA to RBs but since returning from injury, Melvin Gordon's volume is down. He's still an RB1 this week, but we don't see him as a top-five PPR option.
Week 17 at Denver Broncos
The Chargers offense will be at full strength in Week 17 with a chance to go from wild-card playoff team to home field advantage and playing against a potential lame duck coach in Denver's Vance Joseph. This is an offense to trust in the final week of the regular season, with an implied team total of 24 after being installed in Vegas as 6-point favorites. Nevermind that the Broncos are ranked third in aFPA to RBs, because Melvin Gordon is averaging 19 touches per game and 23 PPR points per game. In Week 11 against Denver, he also went for more than 20 fantasy points in that contest. Trust Melvin Gordon.
Week 16 vs. Baltimore Ravens (Saturday)
Los Angeles hosts Baltimore on a short week with a chance to get its offense back to full strength, with the return of Melvin Gordon and possibly Keenan Allen. This game has a low over/under of 43.5 points, with the Chargers having an implied total of 23.75, lower than recent weeks against a strong Baltimore defense. The Ravens rank second in aFPA to RBs this season. If active, you're always starting Melvin Gordon. He's been one of the most consistent backs this season, but lower expectations. Coming off an injury against a tough defense, he's more of a high-RB2 this week.
Week 12 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Chargers have an implied team total of 28 points, an attractive projection. This is also a run funnel defense that the Chargers will face, increasing the likelihood of Melvin Gordon having a huge game. The Cardinals may be ranked second in aFPA to QBs, but they are only 22nd in aFPA to RBs. Plus, Melvin Gordon's floor in home games this year has been 21.6 fantasy points. Start him as usual.
Week 11 vs. Denver Broncos
Fantasy owners should expect a run-heavy attack this week for the Chargers. Denver is eighth in aFPA to QBs this season but just 18th in aFPA to RBs. With a large implied team total of 26.75, Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler are set up for high-volume, high-efficiency production. Gordon owners have already come to expect that out of him each week at this point though and should obviously not stray from starting him confidently.
Week 10 at Oakland Raiders
Melvin Gordon is averaging 25.4 PPR points per game, and this week, the Chargers have the third-highest team total on the Sunday slate. Oakland ranks just 25th in aFPA to RBs, and Gordon put up 22 points in the first match-up between these two teams this season. He is a locked and loaded as an upper tier RB1 this week in a pristine match-up.
