Week 9 at Cowboys
Melvin Gordon still seems the play we want to chase out of the Denver Broncos backfield this week. Over the past two weeks, it seems Gordon is gaining a higher-touch share between him and Javonte Williams with a 57% to 43% in favor of Melvin Gordon in total snaps played. Also, Gordon finding the endzone three times in the past two games has helped buoy his fantasy points. The Cowboys are also giving up 17.1 fantasy points in half PPR to RBs which is about league average, so this won’t be a matchup to avoid.
Week 8 vs Football Team
Unfortunately, it seems like the Denver Broncos backfield will be locked into a split right down the middle for the remainder of the year barring an injury to either Melvin Gordon or Javonte Williams. In the past two weeks, we've seen a Melvin Gordon 55% snap share, while Javonte Williams owns a 45% snap share. If we look at the past four weeks of usage, the numbers remain the same, 55% for Gordon and 45% for Williams. The Football Team defense has been porous this year, but they still remain strong against the run so we should still temper expectations with Gordon and Williams this week.
Week 7 at Browns
Melvin Gordon should still be the preferred play this week, even if we want to see Javonte Williams freed. In the last two weeks, Gordon still has the edge when it comes to the RB snaps for the Broncos with a 55% snap share while Williams has a 45% snap share, while Williams has gained more rushing yards, its Gordon who gets more playing time and with the RB landscape this week, we're chasing a touchdown this week from Gordon.
Week 6 vs Raiders
Melvin Gordon has a tasty matchup this week going up against the Las Vegas Raiders. According to our very own adjusted fantasy points allowed tool, the Raiders come in as a bottom-5 run defense in points allowed (28.5) to the opposing RB. After a week where he lost the snap share battle to Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon was again at 60%/40% share with the rookie RB. This week both should be RB2/ Flex options.
Week 5 at Steelers
Melvin Gordon hasn't had a bad season thus far, but he also isn't running away with the RB1 job like we thought he would as a veteran running back. This week he takes on a Pittsburgh Steelers team who has been daunting against the run, only four teams have allowed fewer points via 0.5 PPR than the Steelers in the 2021 season. It might be best to look elsewhere this week when it comes to the Broncos running game.
Week 1 vs Ravens
Melvin Gordon through three weeks seems to have the upper hand in this Denver Broncos backfield and the story should remain the same this week going up against a Baltimore Ravens defense, that isn't as intimidating as in years past. Coming into this game, the Ravens currently resides in the bottom 10 of fantasy defenses when it comes to giving up points to the running back position according to our very own adjusted fantasy points allowed tool. Fire up Gordon again this week, especially if this game is a slow-paced, pound the rock kinda environment.
Week 3 vs. Jets
Melvin Gordon has had a hot start to the season so far turning in an RB14 season rank currently and he has a juicy matchup coming up with the New York Jets. According to Football Outsiders defensive DVOA rankings, the Jets are currently 26th best when it comes to defending the run. Last week against the New England Patriots, the Patriots gained all their touchdowns via the ground.
Week 2 vs. Jaguars
Good News:
Melvin Gordon gave us a top six 0.5 PPR finish while also seeing 75% of the passing targets in the Broncos backfield.
Bad News:
Melvin Gordon gained 69% of his rushing total off one run, while also registering fewer carries than rookie Javonte Williams.
Bottom Line:
This is a full-on running back by committee, but chasing Gordon helps since he will see the majority of the passing targets, it might not be this week though since the Denver Broncos are almost a full touchdown favorite over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Week 1 at Giants
Melvin Gordon should still have a decent amount of work coming his way considering that in 2020, the Denver Broncos ran at the sixth-highest rate according to Sharp Football Stats. This game will be very telling for Gordon's rest of usage predictions, if he can still manage to handle 12-15 touches, this backfield will be one to avoid, unless of course Javonte has a mental lapse and misses a pass-blocking assignment or fumbles the ball.
Fantasy Upside
In 2020, Melvin Gordon showed he still had some football left in his tank. After signing a big contract with his rival AFC West foes, the Denver Broncos, Gordon finished as the RB13 in 0.5 PPR leagues. He saw 44 targets in 2020, just as many as Antonio Gibson, and he saw about 2.9 targets a game, with a 7% target rate or targets per snap. All of this is to say Melvin Gordon is being written off a little too soon. Many are already penciling in Javonte Williams, the Broncos' second-round pick as the likely starter, but according to beat reports around camp right now, Melvin Gordon is fully entrenched as the RB1. After going as the RB20 in Underdog Drafts in 2020 and returning a value of RB13, why aren’t we drafting more of Melvin Gordon in 2021? A year after having an ADP of 41, he’s going into 2021 with an ADP of 119. The Denver Broncos owned the eighth highest rush percentage in 2020 with a run ratio of 47% of their snaps. So there’s still plenty of work left for Melvin Gordon to take advantage of in 2021. Remember he gave us over 1100 total yards while boasting a respectable 4.7 yards per carry. Vegas currently has the Broncos with the 19th highest win total at 8.5 wins, which could favor the running game since it means Vegas is anticipating the Broncos to win half their games, which means they’ll be in favorable running game scripts.
strong>Fantasy Downside
As many of us know, Melvin Gordon is entering his age 28 season, a season where many running backs end up falling off and becoming a shell of their previous selves. The Broncos also traded up in the second round to take Javonte Williams, a running back out of the University of North Carolina. Many indications are that fantasy drafters have all but written off Melvin Gordon, thinking its Williams show but as we’ve seen over the years, it’s very hard for a rookie running back to come in and dominate touches and it’s even harder if you aren’t a first-round rookie running back. There is a scenario within his range of outcomes where Melvin Gordon has fallen off the cliff and this becomes a two-man show instead of the show that Gordon showed us last year when he had the 11th most touches of all RBs in 2020 and averaged a robust 17 touches a game.
2021 Bottom Line
We all know Melvin Gordon is getting up there in age, but it feels like we are a year early in saying that Gordon won’t be able to replicate what he did in 2020. Yes, the Broncos drafted a rookie running back in 2021, but they also lost Phillip Lindsey, and Vic Fangio's head coaching job could be on the line if they find themselves on the wrong side of another losing season. One fumble or one bad pass pro assignment and Javonte Williams could find himself on the bench while Melvin Gordon racks up all the touches since the only other running backs the Broncos currently have are Royce Freeman and Mike Boone. Melvin Gordon having such a low ADP doesn’t allow for much risk but allows for a ton of value. At 4for4 we currently have him as the RB43, a season after he finished as the RB13.
