Week 2 vs. Houston Texans
Melvin Gordon assumed his expected role of sharing the Denver backfield with Javonte Williams in Week 1, logging 12 carries for 58 yards and a pair of targets he caught for 14 yards. While Gordon's 12 carries beat out Williams' seven, Williams dominated the passing game work with 12 targets and looked generally more explosive with his touches. For the time being, it looks like Gordon will have to rely primarily on his rushing workload and potential goal line touchdowns to return fantasy value. Gordon did receive a goal line carry in Week 1 which he proceeded to fumble away, but Williams did the exact same thing with his own short-yardage opportunity. Gordon has a set role in the Denver offense which will keep him on the flex radar in fantasy, but Williams looks to have a lead in both talent and high-value touches at this point.
Week 1 at Seattle Seahawks
Melvin Gordon will once again work in tandem with ascending star Javonte Williams in the Denver backfield this year, but the extent to which Gordon will be involved remains a bit of a mystery. If the Broncos' RB usage remains the same as last season, Gordon will be a great value at his ADP receiving roughly 50% of the RB touches in an offense now operated by Russell Wilson. That sort of arrangement would provide enough opportunity for both Gordon and Williams to produce in Week 1 against an unimposing Seattle defense. There is always a chance Williams vaults into the lead back role this season, a development that would put a significant dent in Gordon's fantasy value, but for now Gordon is playable as a flex until we see the coaching staff commit to Williams.
2022 Fantasy Upside
For a guy many fantasy managers wrote off last year after the Broncos drafted Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon turned in a solid age-28 season. Gordon saw 231 touches in 2021, most of those coming on the ground (203) with Williams taking over most of the passing game work out of the backfield. Gordon managed a healthy 4.5 yards per carry on that workload with 10 total touchdowns, slotting him safely into the RB2 tier. Gordon re-signing with the Broncos is beneficial from a fantasy standpoint. For starters, Gordon will line up behind Russell Wilson instead of Drew Lock this year, and this fact alone should allow the Broncos to score substantially more points than last season. Second, the Broncos look set on a repeat performance of their "One-Two Punch" approach to RB play, meaning Gordon should again see a healthy workload in 2022 working alongside Williams. Even if Williams continues to ascend at the expense of some of Gordon's workload, this loss could be offset by an increase in scoring and efficiency with Wilson in town. While Gordon might not be an "exciting" pick in the sense that he's a known commodity at this point, his situation sets up well for another season like 2021, which would make him a solid value in the RB3 range of drafts.
2022 Fantasy Downside
While there are reasons to be excited about Gordon this year, he is now 29 and rapidly approaching the age where RBs tend to break down. Gordon did miss two games down the stretch last season with minor injuries, and the odds of additional missed games will only increase with age. Gordon also faces the issue of having an ascending RB talent in the same backfield. Williams looked awesome in the games Gordon missed last season, and it's not out of the realm of possibility for the Broncos to lean on him more heavily in 2022 as the younger and more explosive player. Gordon's role looks secure for now, but NFL backfields are volatile and there is no guarantee he gets the same workload as last year.
2022 Bottom Line
As things currently stand, Gordon looks undervalued as the forgotten man behind Williams, who is being drafted in the early rounds. Gordon appears locked into a healthy amount of carries for the new-look Broncos offense, and he should see at least some passing game work as well. Gordon carries substantial TD upside with Russell Wilson in town, and a Williams injury would lock him into a huge role. Gordon can be drafted as a RB3 with room for more depending on how things shake out during the season.
Week 16 at Chargers
If you're still reading this, I appreciate you for a great season and it most likely means you're in the championship, so congrats to you on making it this far.
Last week Melvin Gordon had a game to forget. Eight touches for zero yards against the Las Vegas Raiders. Thankfully, this week, he gets a much softer matchup. The Los Angeles Chargers are giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs this season, and just a week ago they allowed Rex Burkhead to rush for 149 yards and two touchdowns last week. Currently, Gordon is ranked as a top 30 running back this week, so if you're looking for a floor play, Gordon fits that bill perfectly.
Week 16 at Raiders
As the case has been all year long, Melvin Gordon has been in a near-even split with Javonte Williams when it comes to snaps and rush attempts during the 2021 NFL season. This week they take on a Las Vegas Raiders team that is currently giving up the 13th most rushing yards (650) since Week 10. The Broncos are also a one-point favorite, which should set them up for a favorable run game script. Last week, Gordon was able to turn 16 touches into 61 yards. We have Gordon as a top 21 back in the semi-finals this week with a projected 75 rushing yards.
Week 15 vs Bengals
After being left for dead since he got injured, Melvin Gordon had to remind everyone he's still a very good player and both Gordon and Javonte Williams can thrive. Against the Detroit Lions in Week 14, Gordon went over 100 rushing yards and two scores, of course, we can't expect that this week. The Denver Broncos host the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 15 and a run defense that has been red hot as of late. Our projections at 4for4 have Melvin Gordon rushing for about 60 yards while adding another eight through the air. He's a decent RB2/flex this week.
Week 14 vs Lions
Melvin Gordon is expected to play this week after missing Week 13 with a hip injury. Gordon is most likely coming back to a touch of pace back and/ or mostly a third-down running back. I'm not sure what the coaching staff will do, but I do know Gordon has surely lost some touches due to how amazing Javonte Williams was in Week 13. Before he got injured, it was looking like a 55%/45% split in Gordon's favor, this week I expect that number to favor Williams largely.
Week 13 at Chiefs
Melvin Gordon is doing everything asked of him, even if fantasy Twitter is chomping at the bit to see Javonte Williams unleashed. According to multiple practice reports and insiders, it seems like Melvin Gordon is a real 50/50 shot to play this week. If that happens, we should expect to see more work from Javonte Williams, while Gordon spells him.
Week 12 vs Chargers
Melvin Gordon’s usage still continues to be strong, but until one player gets the full workload, both Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon will only be flex plays. Before the bye was the first week all season that Gordon logged fewer snaps than Williams, we'll see if it's a one-week thing or if it continues coming out of the bye. According to our hot spot tool, both Gordon and Williams are good plays against the Chargers this weekend.
Week 10 vs Eagles
In a game that features the Denver Broncos as a 2.5 point favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles, we should see a slow pace game that should feature a heavy ground attack. Even though Javonte Williams had a strong game last week, Gordon still out-touched him 23-17 and he still had a good game of his own by turning those 23 touches into 95 yards and a touchdown. Gordon is still getting a ton of work and this week won't be any different with an Eagles team that is giving up the eighth-most points to running backs this season.
