Week 1 vs Bears
Nothing says welcome to the NFC West like playing the Chicago Bears. Matthew Stafford is very familiar with Chicago as a former Detroit Lion and gets one of the weaker versions of the defense that he has seen. The Bears rank 12 in schedule-adjusted positional defensive ranking against the quarterback but are already dealing with injuries to the defensive line and a much weaker secondary. Stafford will have four wide receivers deserving of targets, a useful tight end that should see one-on-one coverage often, and serviceable running backs. This offensive group is one of the best Stafford has worked with in his career and should handle Chicago. The Rams are seven-point home favorites.
Fantasy Upside
When looking at the offensive weapons Matthew Stafford has at his disposal in Los Angeles compared to what is in Detroit, it is difficult to not get excited for Stafford’s fresh start out west. As good as Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. are/were, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are a better tandem at receiver. Stafford also has a talented tight end to throw to in Tyler Higbee, who will get a chance to shine as the clear TE1 for the Rams. Stafford should be throwing plenty especially with the loss of RB Cam Akers for the season. Rams head coach Sean McVay will not admit it, but he was limited with Jared Goff under center. Stafford is an upgrade for the Rams offense, especially since Stafford has completed at least 65% of passes in each of the past six seasons. Stafford also attempted his fewest passes over a 16-game season in 2020, a product of Matt Patricia and the old Lions regime. Our John Paulsen projects Stafford to attempt 656 passes and accumulate 5,327 passing yards. If he hits the yardage mark, it would be a career high.
Fantasy Downside
The top year-to-year correlation for quarterbacks is rushing attempts along with yards per game. Stafford does not run, limiting his upside. His arm talent is elite but there is volatility attached to solely depending on one aspect. Stafford also will be playing behind a worse line than in Detroit according to 4for4’s Justin Edwards. Despite the continuity that is valued year-to-year on the offensive line, the Rams group has aging pieces and will have a former tackle-turned-guard playing center. It is also foolish to assume the Rams start six linemen as they did in 2020 (fewest in NFL). While Stafford’s passing options are deep, they will be tested. The Rams have five games versus top 10 defenses against quarterbacks according to 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Positional Defensive Rankings. Not awful, but each game is on the road with trips to Green Bay and Minnesota before and during the fantasy playoffs, respectively.
Another aspect lost in the Cam Akers injury news: Akers was going to be Stafford’s best running back teammate since Reggie Bush in 2013. Same as it ever was...
2021 Bottom Line
Stafford heads west with the chance to put up career numbers nearly a decade into his career. His throwing talent is unquestioned and his offensive weapons deep. As long as his offensive line remains in place and the running game steps up for the loss of Akers, Stafford will return value at his current 9th round ADP and be in the QB1 range throughout 2021.
Week 17 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Before leaving last week’s loss to Tampa Bay early in the first quarter with an ankle injury, Matthew Stafford was 2-of-3 for 17 yards. In the November loss at Minnesota, he threw for 211 yards and a TD but is a risky fantasy start on Sunday due to how much he’s been beaten up over the past month.
Week 16 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Despite battling sore ribs, Matthew Stafford played most of last week’s loss at Tennessee. He threw for 252 yards and a score, continuing his string of tossing for at least one TD in all but one contest this season. He is averaging 270 passing yards and needs just 226 more for his eighth 4,000-yard season. Tampa Bay is No. 25 against the pass but Stafford is more of a QB2 option.
Week 15 at Tennessee Titans
Before leaving in the fourth quarter with a rib injury last week versus the Packers, Matthew Stafford threw for 244 yards and a score. Despite the Lions poor record, he is averaging over 270 yards through the air this season with 22 TDs. Tennessee is the fourth-worst in the league at stopping the pass, so as long as Stafford is cleared to play, he has a nice matchup.
Week 14 vs. Green Bay Packers
What a comeback Matthew Stafford led at Chicago last week, even with WR Kenny Golladay still out. In the win he threw for a season-most 402 yards with three TDs – the fourth time in ’20 he tossed for three scores. There’s an outside chance Golladay can return on Sunday versus the No. 11 pass defense, otherwise, Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson will remain Stafford's top options. In the Week 2 loss at Green Bay, he threw for 244 yards and two scores.
Week 13 at Chicago Bears
Again, without most of his top weapons, Matthew Stafford struggled in the Thanksgiving Day loss to Houston. While he finished with 295 yards and a late TD toss on a season-tying 42 attempts, he has only the lone score the past two contests. There’s a chance Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola and D’Andre Swift will all be back for the rematch with Chicago. In the Week 1 loss to the Bears Stafford threw for nearly 300 yards with one TD.
Week 12 vs. Houston Texans
Without WRs Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola and RB D’Andre Swift, Matthew Stafford (playing with a hurt thumb) and the Lions offense struggled at Carolina last Sunday, being shutout for the first time since ’09. In the loss Stafford was sacked five times and threw for a season-low 178 yards, obviously ending his streak of tossing at least one TD in every game in ’20. With the short week, Stafford is hopeful to have at least a couple of his key weapons back versus Houston's No. 22 pass defense, but with the inconsistent Detroit offense he is a QB2 option.
Week 11 at Carolina Panthers
In the last-second win over Washington last week, Matthew Stafford threw for 275 and three TDs, marking the third time this season he’s tossed for three scores. Stafford has only two 300-yard outings in ’20 but may be getting his top WR Kenny Golladay back for Sunday’s affair with the Panthers, assuming he can play through a partially-torn thumb ligament himself. Even if Golladay is unable to return from a hip injury Carolina is No. 22 against the pass, so consider Stafford a low-end QB1.
Week 10 vs. Washington
In Minnesota last week, Matthew Stafford left in the second half with a head injury but should be good to play on Sunday. Prior to his departure, he threw for 211 yards with one TD and two INTs. In three of the past four outings, Stafford has tossed for just one score and likely will be without his top WR Kenny Golladay again on Sunday. Washington owns the best pass defense in the league, so Stafford is a low-end QB1 start.
