Week 5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Matthew Stafford got back above 300 yards in Week 4 against the Indianapolis Colts. That brings his total up to three 300-yard games in 2023. Stafford has yet to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game this year, though and has tallied five interceptions.
The Eagles have shut down the last two quarterbacks they've faced, holding both Sam Howell and Baker Mayfield under 20 fantasy points. Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins threw for over 300 yards and multiple passing touchdowns, so your outlook on Stafford might depend on whether you think he's closer to Howell or Cousins. We have him as QB18 for this week. He is dealing with a hip issue, but it doesn't seem like there's any danger of him missing time. He's a fine QB2 but you likely have better options in single quarterback leagues.
Week 4 at Indianapolis Colts
Matthew Stafford comes in ranked as QB20 in our projections this week. He has eclipsed 300 passing yards in two of his three games so far but hasn't thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game yet.
In Week 4, he gets a matchup with the Colts who are two weeks removed from allowing 384 yards to rookie CJ Stroud. They've also allowed multiple touchdowns in two-of-three weeks. You likely have better options in single-QB leagues, but he's a solid QB2 in superflex this week.
Week 3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense has been a somewhat surprising bright spot through two weeks of the season. He's creeping up the rankings each week, coming in at QB21 in our rankings. He gets a matchup against a Bengals team that just allowed Lamar Jackson to throw for 234 yards and two touchdowns.
Stafford has crossed the 300-yard mark in both games this season. Most of the scoring has come from elsewhere, though, as he's only thrown for one touchdown and has been picked off twice this year. He's a mid-range QB2 for this Monday night matchup. In Superflex or two-QB leagues, he's a great second option, but in regular redraft, you may have better options.
Fantasy Upside
Matthew Stafford, despite his age, still has the potential to be a valuable asset in fantasy football. In 2021, Stafford averaged 287.4 passing yards per game and threw for an impressive 41 touchdowns, leading the Rams to a championship. Even though his 2022 season was cut short due to a spinal cord contusion, he still managed to average 231.9 passing yards and threw for 10 touchdowns in the first nine games. Stafford's experience and proven ability to perform at a high level, even in his twilight years, give him a certain upside that can't be ignored. With the Rams denying rumors of frustration with Stafford and affirming their commitment to him, it's clear that he will continue to be a key part of their offensive strategy.
Fantasy Downside
However, there are some red flags to consider. Stafford's propensity to turning the ball over has been a concern, with 25 interceptions in his last 26 regular-season games. His injury in 2022 also raises questions about his durability moving forward. The Rams' strength of schedule for the 2023 season ranks as the 29th hardest, which could pose additional challenges for Stafford's performance.
2016 Bottom Line
Stafford is currently ranked as a low-end QB2 for 2023. We have him ranked at QB21. His performance in the upcoming season will largely depend on his ability to stay healthy and reduce interceptions. While there are risks involved in drafting him, his proven track record and the Rams' commitment to him suggest he could still offer value, particularly in deeper leagues or as a backup option. Draft him with caution, but don't completely rule him out.
Week 11 at New Orleans Saints
Matthew Stafford is officially off the injury report and will play in Week 11. Stafford will play his first game with the Rams without All-Pro wide receiver Cooper Kupp. Stafford’s 2021 season hasn’t been going well as it is, and without his top option, it’s going to be hard to trust Stafford this week. Through Week 10, Stafford has only thrown for multiple touchdowns in one game and has gone over 260 yards passing just twice all season long.
This week the Rams will take on a resurgent Saints secondary. Over the past four games, the Saints have held each team to under 205 yards passing and less than two touchdowns in each contest. This includes facing some solid starting quarterbacks like Kyler Murray, Derek Carr, and Lamar Jackson. Now heading into this matchup without Kupp, it will be best to hold off on starting Stafford in Week 11 until we see him prove he can produce without his top option.
Week 10 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Heading into Week 10, it seems that time is running out on Matthew Stafford to turn around his season. Stafford is coming off his worst passing performance of the year as he only completed 13 passes for 165 yards on 27 attempts. This isn’t all on Stafford as the offensive line has struggled for most of the year as they have dealt with injuries across the board. The issue moving forward for Stafford is that help isn’t on the way as key starters on the offensive line are not expected to return anytime soon.
This week is a rematch of the Week 3 contest vs. the Arizona Cardinals. In that game, Stafford threw for 249 yards and zero touchdowns. Not much has changed for the Rams since that time. Stafford is still struggling, the offensive line is still banged up, and outside of Van Jefferson returning the offense hasn’t made any progress overall. Finally, Stafford has been put into concussion protocol this week and is in danger of missing this contest. Even if Stafford plays it is probably best to fade him once again for Week 10.
Week 9 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coming out of the bye in Week 8 Matthew Stafford once again struggled vs. the 49ers only throwing for 187 yards and one touchdown on the week. Stafford did salvage his fantasy day by scoring a rushing touchdown. However, his 5.67 yards per attempt was the second lowest on the season. The Rams’ struggles can be attributed to bad offensive line play and a lack of a vertical threat on the outside. This season Stafford is tied for 20th in yards per attempt, and 28th in air yards per attempt. Compounding the issue more for Stafford is his lack of touchdowns. Through seven games Stafford is only averaging one touchdown per game while his 2.7% touchdown rate is tied for 27th in the NFL.
This week Stafford might have found the matchup to jump-start his season vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Last season vs. Tampa Bay Stafford erupted for 354 passing yards and three touchdowns per game. Stafford threw for at least 340 yards in each matchup as both games produced over 55 total points. This season both offenses look to be broken as each team is dealing with its fair share of injuries on the offensive line. That being said, this could be a game where we see Stafford begin to right the ship. This matchup should make Stafford a borderline QB1 this week.
Week 8 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Coming out of the bye Matthew Stafford looks to jump-start this pass offense that looked flat to start the season. Through the first six games of the year, Stafford has only thrown multiple touchdowns in one game. That game came all the way back in Week 2 vs. the Atlanta Falcons. Since that week, Stafford has failed to throw a touchdown in two of the four games. Hopefully, the bye week has allowed Stafford to build some chemistry with Allen Robinson, but the biggest development could be the return of Van Jefferson. Jefferson and his 4.39 speed will add a much-needed vertical element to this offense, and open things up for players like Cooper Kupp and Robinson underneath.
In Week 8 Stafford will get another tough matchup as he faces a stout 49ers defense. In 2021, Stafford was solid vs. the 49ers throwing for on average 272 yards and two TDs in three games. However, that was when this offense was humming. Now with the offense struggling Stafford failed to throw a touchdown on just 254 passing yards back in Week 4. Based on Stafford’s early season struggles, it might be best to keep him on benches until he proves he can put up good numbers vs tough opponents in 2022.
Week 6 vs. Carolina Panthers
Matthew Stafford had 308 yards, a touchdown, and a pick against the Cowboys last week. It was his first game over 300 yards, and it came in a game where Dallas had control for most of the game. Stafford’s 5/7 TD/Int ratio needs to improve if he and the Rams are going to find success again this year.
Stafford has an average matchup this week against the Panthers, who rank 17th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. Expect fringe QB1 numbers against a softer defense than what he faced last week. He should settle into QB2 numbers on a weekly basis, with streaming potential in good matchups.
Week 5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Matthew Stafford has struggled mightily this season as he currently sits as the QB27 heading into Week 5. A lot of this has to do with the lack of explosive plays. Currently, the Rams are one of only three teams this season that doesn’t have a 40+ yard pass play. This has led to a lot of Stafford’s production coming underneath to Tyler Higbee and Cooper Kupp. Now before we completely jump ship, we should point out that the schedule hasn’t been favorable for Stafford. So far this season he has faced two of the top three defenses (Bills and 49ers) in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. Stafford did find success vs. the Falcons throwing for 272 yards and three TDs while he wasn’t asked too much vs. the Cardinals only throwing 25 times in an ugly win vs. the Cardinals.
This week the Rams do face another tough test as they take on the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have an elite pass rush that has generated the third most sacks in the NFL through Week 5. This has led them to allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2022. We do believe Stafford will turn things around at some point, but this week he’s best left on benches.
