Week 12 at Green Bay Packers
A bye week will help Stafford and the Rams as they travel to Green Bay. Despite a myriad of injuries, the Packers defense is 8th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins was the first QB to surpass the 300-yard mark in Week 11, and had the first multi-pass TD effort against Green Bay since Week 5. The loss of Robert Woods may show more this week than Week 10 so look for Stafford to target his favorite target – Cooper Kupp - a lot.
Week 10 at San Francisco 49ers
Colt McCoy just beat the 49ers in Santa Clara. What is Matthew Stafford going to do after an embarrassing loss at home? The 49ers are 29th in QB aFPA and have allowed 16.3 fantasy points per game in seven of eight games. Plat Stafford comfortably against a struggling 49ers defense.
Week 9 versus Tennessee Titans
Matthew Stafford can make it three straight games with 300-plus passing yards against the 25th-ranked defense in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. The Tennessee Titans head to Los Angeles and have to slow down Stafford’s MVP campaign that includes 309 passing yards and 2.75 passing touchdowns per game. Tennessee has only allowed two 300-yard passers in 2021 but is allowing an average of 281 passing yards per game. Stafford has top-three QB upside this week.
Week 8 at Houston Texans
Stafford put up his third 300-yard passing, three TD game of 2021 against his former team, the Detroit Lions Week 7. Week 8 could be the fourth as the Rams take on the Houston Texans. Only seven defenses allow more points to opposing quarterbacks than the Texans, who have allowed four multi-TD games. Stafford is one of the favorites to top the position in fantasy points this week.
Week 7 vs Lions
REVENGE!
Matthew Stafford welcomes the Detroit Lions to Los Angeles, and if we know anything about sports, narratives are more important than facts. On a more serious note, the Lions are 25th in aFPA against opposing offenses and 15th against quarterbacks. Detroit has shockingly allowed one 300-yard passing game but has allowed Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, and a Jimmy G/Trey Lance combination to score 19 or more fantasy points with relative ease. Stafford has potential to be the overall QB1 Week 7.
Week 6 at Giants
Thursday night football did not slow down Stafford as he threw for a season-high 365 yards. Oddly enough his 1:1 TD/INT ratio led to his lowest fantasy production but against Seattle, it did not matter. The Rams travel to New Jersey to take on a Giants team that is allowing 276 passing yards and two passing scores per game. That has also led opposing quarterbacks to score 21.12 fantasy points per game. Stafford has similar offensive talent as Dallas’s Dak Prescott, who just put up 302 yards in the air and three passing scores. Stafford could very well mirror Prescott despite traveling cross-country for Sunday’s game
Week 5 at Seahawks
Despite being thoroughly outplayed by Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford put up 19.3 fantasy points, the second-most against the Cardinals' defense. Week 5’s matchup is much easier when the Rams travel to Seattle. The Seahawks defense has allowed three straight 300-yard passing games (the 49ers QBs combined for over 300 passing yards) and has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three of four contests. Seattle is 27th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to the quarterback position.
Week 4 vs Cardinals
There is little to dislike about Matthew Stafford’s start to his Rams career. He is averaging 314 yards and three touchdowns per game but has seen his yards per attempt and yards per reception drop each of the past two weeks. Week 3 was the first time the Rams did not run a nearly 50/50 run/pass split (24/38). Stafford’s matchup against the Cardinals will be his toughest one month into the season with the Cards ranking 10th in aFPA against opposing quarterbacks. His chemistry with Cooper Kupp and willingness to target Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee without consistent production in return shows that he is willing to target a situation that works and keeps every offensive weapon happy. That is good enough to make Stafford a top 12 option in one of the better games of Week 4.
Week 3 vs Buccaneers
After two weeks it is safe to say Matthew Stafford has transitioned well to Los Angeles. Stafford has connected for five touchdowns on just 56 pass attempts because of weak secondaries, and while the Buccaneers sport an elite run defense, their secondary is average. The Bucs rank 16th in schedule-adjusted points allowed to the quarterback position and will be without their starting slot corner. Through two games, the Bucs have allowed a 300-yard and 400-yard passer and a 5/4 TD: INT ratio in part to their dynamic offense. The Rams offensive line has allowed two sacks ahead of a matchup with one of the better front fours to start the season. Stafford has top-five upside and sits ninth in 4for4’s Week 3 projections.
Week 2 vs Colts
The NFC Offensive Player of the Week gets to travel back to the midwest to face the Colts. Indianapolis entered 2021 eighth in 4for4’s schedule-adjusted defensive rankings against quarterbacks but allowed 254 passing yards and four touchdowns to Russell Wilson Week 1. Stafford can duplicate that with Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Gerald Everett and behind a better offensive line. Stafford passed for 336 yards and three touchdowns last season against the Colts while with the Lions. The Colts' defense may not be the exact same as last season but it is similar enough to know Stafford can compile stats against them.
