Week 4 at San Francisco 49ers
Matthew Stafford has been a disappointing fantasy asset through three weeks. He has four touchdowns to five interceptions and has yet to eclipse 300 yards passing in a single game. That being said, the team is 2-1, with a loss to the Bills, so things aren’t going too badly in Los Angeles.
This week, Stafford faces a 49ers defense that has been excellent against opposing quarterbacks. They smothered Justin Fields and Geno Smith in the first two weeks, and then held Russell Wilson to 184 yards and zero touchdowns on Sunday night. Expect a tough game for both offenses, landing Stafford more in the QB2 territory this week. Look elsewhere if possible in 1QB leagues.
Week 3 at Arizona Cardinals
Matthew Stafford had somewhat of a rebound after a disastrous week 1 vs. the Buffalo Bills. The good was that he completed 75% of his passes for 272 yards and three touchdowns. The bad was he threw two more interceptions. From a fantasy standpoint, the up-and-down play didn’t really matter as Stafford finished as a top-10 QB on the week. We shouldn’t be alarmed by this type of play as his turnovers keep opposing teams in the game which only leads to more pass volume for Stafford.
Heading into Week 3, Stafford gets another blow-up spot as the Rams will face off vs. their division rival the Arizona Cardinals. Through Week 2, the Cardinals have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. This includes allowing the fourth most passing yards and a league-high seven TD passes. Last year in the three games vs. Arizona, Stafford averaged a solid 256 passing yards and threw for seven TDs. The potential for a shoutout vs. Arizona along with his solid baseline of production historically vs. Arizona should make Stafford a safe backend QB1 in Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Matthew Stafford is coming off a less-than-stellar performance in Week 1 vs. the Buffalo Bills. Stafford only managed 240 yards on 41 attempts while throwing three INTs vs. one TD. Before we run for the hills, Stafford missed a lot of time this preseason nursing his elbow injury so rust should have been expected. Next, the matchup didn’t help as he squared off against the Bills’ number one ranked pass defense from 2021. Finally, outside of stud WR Cooper Kupp, Stafford was working with two new starters in the receiving core.
Heading into Week 2, Stafford should rebound right away as the Rams will face off vs. the Atlanta Falcons. In Week 1 Jameis Winston was able to put up a solid game going for 269 yards and two scores finishing as a top 12 QB on the week. Winston was efficient as he was top 10 in yards per attempt and fifth in 4for4’s adjusted yards per attempt. This softer matchup should help Stafford, but until he shows us he has knocked off the rust and found a connection with Robinson he's best viewed as a high-end QB2 instead of a top 12 option.
Week 1 vs. Buffalo Bills
Matthew Stafford kicks off his season with a tough matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Going against the number one ranked pass defense last season, Stafford and the Rams have their work cut out for them. With that said, I am starting him expecting backend QB1 production. With the over/under set at 52 points, Stafford and company will need to air it out to keep up with Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Matthew Stafford’s first season in Los Angeles was incredible. He ranked third among all quarterbacks in passing yards (4,886) and second in touchdown passes (41), en route to a Super Bowl Championship. The Rams even upgraded the wide receiver position by adding veteran Allen Robinson to play alongside reigning Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp. Our own Justin Edwards still ranks the Rams offensive line as eighth-best, after only allowing Stafford to be sacked 1.8 times per game, the fourth-best mark last season.
The 34-year-old Stafford only provided 43 total rushing yards, placing his per-game fantasy finish only at QB11. Consecutive QB24 and QB14 finishes during the fantasy playoffs took a little bit of shine off a spectacular overall season. Given his offensive weapons, solid o-line, and brilliant head coach in Sean McVay, Stafford is still a solid fantasy option at quarterback.
2022 Fantasy Downside
If Stafford can’t finish inside the positional Top 10 with 41 touchdown passes, when can he? There is such a multitude of running quarterbacks, Stafford’s overall fantasy upside is suppressed. With only 10 rushing touchdowns in 2021, the Rams scoring balance is likely to see an increase on the ground.
2022 Bottom Line
Stafford is a solid fantasy quarterback, but lacks true Top-5 upside because of his lack of rushing production. His QB24 finish in Week 16 was a championship killer, and highlights the benefit of more versatile signal-callers. Still, his likely output of 4,800 passing yards and 30-plus touchdown passes is tough to overlook.
Week 17 at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens defense is injured and was just torched for one of the best passing performances in recent vintage. Matthew Stafford is three-deep at receiver and has two battering rams for running backs. Stafford to the moon Week 17!
Week 16 at Minnesota Vikings
A shorter than normal week is never welcomed, but at least Stafford’s opponent, the Vikings, will have one more day of rest and are not very good on defense. Minnesota is 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks despite a strong performance against Chicago Week 15. The Vikings will need a perfect effort to stymy Stafford and his passing options.
Week 15 versus Seattle Seahawks
Stafford has a three-game, 20-plus fantasy point streak on the line as the Seahawks come to town. He threw for 365 yards in Seattle Week 5, but only one touchdown, and was picked off as well. Stafford’s biggest concern is COVID-19. Tyler Higbee should be back in time for Week 15, but the Rams have had the virus take multiple players out of practice since Monday. Stafford is a QB1 unless COVID-19 continues to cause issues.
Week 14 at Arizona Cardinals
Elbow, schmelbow. Stafford continued his strong season with another three touchdowns against the Jaguars Week 13 and gets to face Arizona for the second time this season Week 14. He had a good day against them in Week 4 with 280 yards, two touchdowns, one pick, and 21 (!) yards rushing. Do not expect Stafford to show off his wheels again, but look for another good, if unspectacular performance with the chance to close the gap in the standings with the Cards.
Week 13 versus Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars mean no sweat for Stafford this week, right? Maybe. The Jags are 6th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and have held three straight signal callers under 200 yards passing. Jacksonville has also allowed only two more multi-touchdown games (6) than zero touchdown games (4). The Jags have yet to allow a QB to throw three TDs in one game. Part of that has to do with Jacksonville’s improved pass rush, something the Rams have had issues with in recent weeks. The loss of Robert Woods has affected Stafford’s numbers, too; Stafford’s completion rate is just below 60% and he has a 3-3 TD/INT ratio in two games without Woods. Stafford remains a top 10 option Week 13, but his opponent is not a walk in the park.
