Week 6 – Matthew Stafford vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Detroit offense continues to sputter with Calvin Johnson nursing a sore ankle. And, Reggie Bush also went out with an ankle injury in the loss to the Bills last Sunday. While Bush should be back this week, it looks like Megatron will sit out a game or two, which isn’t good news for Matthew Stafford owners. Against Buffalo, he was just 18-31 for 221 yards, with one TD and one INT. He was also sacked a career-high six times. Matthew has been held to under 300 yards in four straight and has only six touchdown tosses in five games. Definitely temper expectations for Stafford, especially against a Vikings D that’s 11th against the pass.
Week 5 – Matthew Stafford vs. Buffalo Bills
In the win at the Jets last week, Matthew Stafford tossed two second quarter TDs to help lead the Lions to the win. The running game produced only 88 yards on 27 attempts, but Stafford was able to exploit the New York secondary for a deep 59-yard touchdown pass to Jeremy Ross, along with a 16-yarder to TE Eric Ebron. Despite being sacked four times on the afternoon, Matthew threw for 293 yards without an INT – the first time since Week 1 he’s accomplished that. The Bills gave up 268 aerial yards to Houston’s Ryan Fitzpatrick last Sunday and are 25th versus the pass, so look for a solid game from the Detroit QB at home on Sunday, even if Calvin Johnson is again limited by an ankle injury.
Week 4 – Matthew Stafford vs. New York Jets
At home versus the Pack last week, Matthew Stafford had a tough game, finishing 22-34 for 246 yards and two INTs. Through the first three contests, he is averaging 294 passing yards with three TDs and three picks. In the last 11 quarters, Matthew has thrown for only one score and he’ll be facing a Jets defense that allows only 213 yards per game through the air. In recent years the Lions have been a different team on the road that struggles to move the ball, so don’t expect a huge performance from Stafford.
Week 3 – Matthew Stafford vs. Green Bay Packers
Detroit was a much different team in Week 2 compared to Week 1. Of course, facing a good Carolina defense on the road isn’t as easy as beating up on the Giants at home. Matthew Stafford posted a decent fantasy day against the Panthers, going 29-48 for 291 yards and a TD. He also threw his first INT of the young season. Matthew and the Lions will be back at Ford Field on Sunday against a Green Bay team that held Geno Smith to just 176 yards through the air, but Detroit’s has a much better passing attack, especially on turf. Go ahead and keep on starting Stafford.
Week 2 – Matthew Stafford vs. Carolina Panthers
In the home win over the Giants on Monday, Matthew Stafford got off to a great start with two first quarter TD tosses to Calvin Johnson. On the night, he threw for 346 yards as the Giants were unable to control Matthew and Megatron. On the road at Carolina it may be a different story, as the Panthers D stymied the Bucs aerial attack last Sunday, allowing just 183 passing yards to Josh McCown. However, Stafford is a must play, especially with Johnson healthy.
Week 1 – Matthew Stafford vs. New York Giants
After a tough ’13 campaign, Matthew Stafford and the Lions are looking to turn things around. Matthew has a plethora of weapons to target, led by top WR Calvin Johnson. While there have been rumors Detroit may utilize the run a bit more this season, Stafford is still a top fantasy QB and will put the ball in the air plenty. In the home loss to the Giants near the end of last year, he threw for 222 yards and was intercepted twice. New York has a decent D, but go ahead and start Stafford on Monday night.
Fantasy Upside
Even during what many considered a second consecutive off year for Matthew Stafford, he still threw for over 4,600 yards and 29 TDs. Former Saints QB coach Joe Lombardi takes over as the Lions offensive coordinator, which should lead to a better season for Matthew. And, new coach Jim Caldwell is taking steps to improve the QB’s footwork, throwing motion and mechanics. Entering his sixth season with the club, Stafford has embraced the new philosophy after the past two seasons that led to him regressing. You know the capability is there, after he threw for 5,000 yards and 41 scores in ’11. He threw for over 300 yards six times in ’13.
Fantasy Downside
It’s no surprise that Stafford’s mechanics, namely sloppy footwork, have come under scrutiny as his passing numbers have dropped after that incredible ’11 season. He completed just 58.5 percent of his passes last year, the lowest since his rookie season. But, Stafford wasn’t the only one to blame for the decline, as Lions pass catchers had 46 drops – 10 more than any other NFL team. He did throw 19 picks, one off of his career-high of 20 in ’09. In the final four games last season (all losses), the most yards he threw for was just 235. When Calvin Johnson wasn’t in the lineup, Stafford and the Lions were a completely different team.
Bottom Line
Despite being inconsistent at times, Stafford has finished in the top 10 at his position in each of the last three seasons. Now that he has a coaching staff that has been dedicated to refining his technique and has an improved arsenal of weapons with the addition of free agent Golden Tate and rookie TE Eric Ebron, look for the Detroit QB to have increased accuracy and a lower interception rate in ‘14. Lombardi has been known to rely on the run game a bit more, however Matthew should be a great fantasy option if you want to wait until the top-three are off the board and select him toward the middle rounds of your draft. Heading into the season, Stafford is the fifth-ranked QB, comparable to second-tier QBs such as Nick Foles and Andrew Luck. Having Megatron as a primary target always gives him a chance to have a huge weekly output.
