Week 1 at Indianapolis
For the first time in his career, Matthew Stafford will start a season without Calvin Johnson as one of his weapons. Stafford and new WR Marvin Jones have built a good rapport during their short time together, but you just can’t replace Megatron. Matthew also has a nice options in Golden Tate RB Theo Riddick. The Colts were near the bottom in total defense last season and won't be much better in '16, making Stafford a low QB1 play.
Matthew Stafford Preseason Preview
Fantasy Upside
For the fifth straight season, Matthew Stafford not only didn’t miss a game, but he also threw for at least 4,200 yards. While he passed for just five more yards on 10 fewer attempts in 2015 than 2014, he increased his TD total from 22 to 32 and threw just one more pick (13 versus 12). The 32 touchdowns were tied for seventh best in the league and the most Matthew’s thrown for since his career-high of 41 in ’11. His 67 percent completion rate was a career-high. Stafford finished the season strong, tossing eight TDs and no INTs over the final three contests, all Detroit wins.
Fantasy Downside
No longer will Stafford be able to rely on the jump ball and red zone opportunities to Calvin Johnson. Without Megatron, the Lions will almost assuredly continue to establish some type of ground game, which was dead last in the NFL last season at just 83 yards per game. One indication is last season’s 592 pass attempts were the lowest Matthew has had when playing a complete season.
Bottom Line
With Johnson, Stafford has been the definition of consistency over the past five seasons. While he only had three 300-yard games last season, he threw for at least 220 yards in all but three contests and has averaged 29 TDs per year during the past five. However, his numbers may take a dip in ‘16, potentially early on, without his main target. Matthew will need to build a rapport with off-season signee Marvin Jones, but he’s a nice option at 6’2”. Look for Jones to take over Johnson’s role inside the red zone. With OC Jim Bob Cooter, Stafford generated the most consistent rhythm of his career during the second half of last season. It appears Stafford plateaued in 2011 when he threw for over 5,000 yards and 41 TDs. While a season like that won’t happen in ’16, he is still a very reliable and durable fantasy QB. We have him slated at No. 16 for his position, making him a low-end starter or, at worst, a high No. 2 option.
Week 17 at Chicago
In the win over the 49ers last Sunday, Matthew Stafford kept it going, completing 29-of-37 passes for 301 yards and two more TDs, without an INT. In the past five weeks, he has thrown for over 300 yards twice, with 14 touchdowns and only one pick. In Week 6, Matthew threw for 405 yards and four TDs in the overtime win against the Bears. The Lions have been a different team on the road however, with Stafford tossing just 12 of his 29 TDs away from Ford Field.
Week 16 vs. San Francisco
Coming off of the best career rating of his career and a Lions’ franchise record 88 percent completion performance (22-of-25), Matthew Stafford looks to keep his hot hand going against the 49ers at home on Sunday. Matthew threw for 254 yards and three TDs in the win at New Orleans last Monday, with, surprisingly, only one completion to Calvin Johnson. In the past four weeks, Stafford has thrown for an average of 264 yards per game, with 12 TDs and just one INT. San Francisco is No. 26 against the pass, so keep riding the Detroit QB through your playoff run.
Week 15 at New Orleans
In the loss to the Rams last week, Matthew Stafford tried to rally his team, throwing for 245 yards and two scores. St. Louis took away the deep ball, relegating the Lions passing attack to a lot of short completions. In the past three weeks, Matthew has thrown nine TDs versus just one INT and has a good matchup on Monday night against the Saints. While the New Orleans D has been better under Dennis Allen, on the season they are No. 30 versus the pass, making Stafford a QB1 play on the road.
Week 14 at St. Louis
In the heartbreaking loss to the Packers last Thursday, Matthew Stafford continued his streak of finding the end zone either via the air or with his legs to eight straight games. He finished 23-of-35 for 220 yards with two passing TDs and 22 rushing yards. However, Matthew's third quarter lost fumble and some conservative play calling in the second half likely cost the Lions a victory. On Sunday he will be facing a Rams defense that allows 240 passing yards per game. Stafford should be considered a low QB1 play on the road.
Week 13 vs. Green Bay
If Matthew Stafford is on your fantasy team, hopefully you started him on Thanksgiving. He and the Lions torched the Eagles for 337 yards through the air and five TD tosses – three of them to Calvin Johnson. Detroit has looked better with the change at offensive coordinator and Matthew has thrown or scored at least one touchdown in seven straight contests. In the win at Green Bay three weeks ago, Stafford threw for 242 yards and two TDs and should be considered a mid to low QB1 in the rematch.
Week 12 vs. Philadelphia
In the home contest versus the Raiders last Sunday, Matthew Stafford didn’t throw for a score, but had a five-yard TD run that gave the Lions the lead in the fourth quarter. In the win, Matthew threw for 282 yards and also rushed for 31 yards. It was his first game since Week 4 that he didn’t throw for a touchdown, but it was his highest passing yardage since the Week 6 overtime victory versus the Bears. The Eagles just allowed five TD tosses by Jameis Winston a few days ago, so Stafford has an enticing matchup on Thanksgiving.
Week 11 vs. Oakland
In the upset at Green Bay last week, Matthew Stafford did not get sacked and turned in a decent fantasy performance. He finished with 242 yards passing, two touchdowns and one interception. It’s no surprise that almost a quarter of his passes went in the direction of Calvin Johnson, but Matthew did a good job of spreading the ball around, connecting with eight different receivers. The running game didn’t do much, but was effective enough to keep the Packers off of the Detroit QB. Stafford will be back at home this week facing a Raiders defense that gives up 293 yards per game through the air, so he makes for a low QB1 start.
Week 10 at Green Bay
Two weeks ago in London was another disappointing outing for Matthew Stafford and the Lions, as the Chiefs pummeled him for six more sacks. He finished with 217 passing yards, one TD and two INTs. Through the first eight games he is averaging 260 yards, with 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. An extra week with new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter should somewhat help get the offense turned around, but Matthew will require some assistance from his offensive line to give him more time. The Packers defense is allowing 257 passing yards per game and had trouble with Cam Newton last week, but Stafford should be considered more of a QB2 start on Sunday at Green Bay.
