Week 2 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Bruce Arians' love affair with Leonard Fournette has continued into 2021. Fournette led all backs in carries (9), targets (7) and receptions (5). The carries part isn't too surprising, but the fact Fournette was so involved as a receiver despite the team bringing in Giovani Bernard this offseason was unexpected. Although Fournette benefited from Jones being benched following a fumble, so his 65% offensive snap count isn't expected to be the norm every week. Still, it appears as of now that Fournette is the best of the Bucs' three running backs to own in fantasy. He faces a Falcons defense that gave up 170 scrimmage yards to running backs in Week 1, so it's a good matchup. We like Fournette as an RB3/flex play in Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Bucs brought back Leonard Fournette this season after he finished with 600 scrimmage yards in 2020. But Fournette really took off in the postseason where he averaged 112 scrimmage yards per game (compared to 46 in the regular season). Fournette's late surge shows some promise moving into 2021, but Jones was by far the more productive back last year in the regular season. We'd expect a similar result this year, making Fournette a lower-end RB3 play in Week 1 against the Cowboys.
Fantasy Upside
While Leonard Fournette’s success in the postseason didn’t count for fantasy purposes, it was certainly a positive outlook for 2021. Fournette nearly matched his rushing output for the season (367 yards) in his four postseason games (300). He also scored in every single game during the postseason. And now he’s been brought back on a 1-year deal, and riding the success of his playoff run, could have a slightly bigger role.
Fantasy Downside
Fournette is returning, but he joins a crowded backfield in Tampa Bay. We’re projecting him to play second fiddle to Ronald Jones, and we expect a big dip in his role as a receiving threat thanks to the arrival of Giovani Bernard. Less work as a receiver, and having to fight for touches with another starter will make it challenging for Fournette to have consistent production on a week-to-week basis.
2021 Bottom Line
As we just mentioned in the downside portion, it’ll be tough for Fournette to be a consistent threat with such a crowded backfield. He’s fighting for carries with Jones in a pass-heavy offense with arguably the best receiving corps in the league, and one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. Fournette was great during the playoffs, but during the regular season, he was just a guy averaging 3.7 yards per carry and 10.3 touches per game. He’ll be a lower-end RB3 option this season.
Week 17 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Leonard Fournette played 32% of the offensive snaps last week, which is his lowest amount since Week 1 (not counting the Week 5 game when he played one snap). Part of that was simply because the Bucs played in a blowout game. Despite limited playing time, Fournette still played well with 66 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. He hasn't been incredible in Ronald Jones' absence, but he's doing enough to stay relevant in fantasy. His status this week will largely be tied to whether or not Jones returns. If Jones is active, Fournette will be a low-end flex play. If Jones is inactive, Fournette would be a lower-end RB2.
Week 16 at Detroit Lions
Leonard Fournette will once again take over the backfield as Ronald Jones has been ruled out. Fournette was used quite a bit on the ground last week, finishing with 14 carries for 49 yards and two touchdowns. He added 3-16 as a receiver. He played on 66% of the offensive snaps, which tied for his second-most in a game this season. Expect another productive game for Fournette this week in a favorable matchup against the Lions (No. 32 aFPA). With no Jones again, Fournette should easily see 15+ touches. And in a great matchup, he can be viewed as a strong RB1 play in Week 16.
Week 15 at Atlanta Falcons
Leonard Fournette was a healthy scratch last week, which was a curious decision considering he's been playing more snaps than Ronald Jones most weeks. Fournette will become relevant this week as Jones is likely out after being placed on the COVID-19/Reserve list. While Fournette's scratch was odd, there's no real worry about who will fill the void in Jones' absence. Fournette should get the bulk of the work in Week 15 against the Falcons. The only issue is this is a tough matchup considering the Falcons have given up the second-fewest rushing yards, and the fewest rushing touchdowns (5) to running backs this season. Despite the tough matchup, the volume should be enough to make Fournette a lower-end RB2 in Week 15.
Week 14 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Leonard Fournette hasn't been quite as effective lately, averaging 29.3 total scrimmage yards over his last four games. However, he has played more snaps than teammate Ronald Jones in three of those four games. Fournette has some value this week in PPR formats as the Bucs like him as a receiver out of the backfield. But even then, he's more of a desperation flex play this week against the Vikings. It is worth noting, though, that the Vikings have given up the ninth-most receptions to running backs this season.
Week 12 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Leonard Fournette saw fewer snaps than Ronald Jones in Week 10, but returned as the lead back in Week 11 (52% compared to Jones' 36%). However, Fournette didn't do much with that playing time, carrying the ball seven times for 17 yards and catching just one of his four targets for nine yards. Fournette did find the endzone, however, just the second time he's scored in a game this season. His 26 scrimmage yards now gives him back-to-back games with 30 yards or less. We expect better production this week in an easier matchup against the Chiefs. If this turns into a shootout, Fournette may play more as a receiver out of the backfield. Fournette is a solid flex play in Week 12 against the Chiefs.
Week 11 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Leonard Fournette took a major backseat to Ronald Jones in Week 10, seeing 10 touches compared to Jones' 24. Fournette also played fewer snaps (36%) than Jones (56%) for the first time since returning in Week 7. This backfield rotation is scarily dictated by game flow, as Jones is used more in run-heavy games, and Fournette more in pass-heavy games. Fournette should be viewed as a viable flex play against a tough Rams defense in Week 11.
Week 10 at Carolina Panthers
For the second straight game, Leonard Fournette out-played Ronald Jones in offensive snaps, 66% to 32%. Ever since Fournette's return from injury, he's been heavily involved in the offense. In the last two games, Fournette has out-snapped Jones 84 to 33. This week, Fournette faces the Panthers, a team he ran for 100 yards against earlier in the year. The Panthers have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to backs this season, and Fournette has secured that role in this offense, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him have a good game. Fournette should be viewed as a low-end RB2 in a favorable matchup.
